In January 2025, Japan's total population was approximately 124.3 million, more than 550,000 fewer than the previous year, and this decline reached a new high.
Among Japanese people, the elderly over 65 years old account for 30% of the total, almost one in every three is an elderly person, while the working-age population aged 15 to 64 accounts for only 60%.
As soon as the data comes out, people feel that society is like an old tree, the branches are increasingly scarce. Older people are more, young people are less, and the fertility rate is still low, and in 2024 a Japanese couple will only have an average of 1.15 children, far below the 2.1 thatins the population balance.
This situation makes the economy to turn hard, and the consumer markets also shrink. the elderly become the main force of consumption, but what they buy is mostly health products and life needs, the kind of fresh stuff that young people love is rare, the enterprise innovation is not motivated, the economic growth rate is constantly around 1% shake.
Japan's population of over 65 years of age is 36.25 million, a record.Many elderly people still have to continue to work, and the number of employees aged 65 and above reached 9.3 million in 2024 and grew for 21 consecutive years.
Pension and medical expenses are high, and many people do not work and spend their days.
Workforce participation is high, more than half of the elderly aged 65 to 69 persist in the workplace. in convenience shops, restaurants, taxis these industries, the elderly figure is common. Social retirement pressure is high, medical system doctors and nurses shortage, service quality decreases.
Nursing home beds are tight, and it is normal to wait for a few years. Economically, the proportion of pension and medical expenditure in GDP is getting higher and higher, but the tax base is shrinking, and the government finance is tight.
This is not just a matter of numbers, but also the realistic entanglement of countless families behind it. The elderly want to enjoy their old age but have to grit their teeth to go to work. Young people are afraid to have more children under great pressure, forming a vicious circle.
China's population has also begun to emerge, and in 2024, the total population will decline for the third consecutive year, with more deaths than births.
The population of the age of 60 and over reached 3.103 billion, accounting for 22% of the total, and the elderly over the age of 65 about 2.2 million.
It is expected that by 2035, the age of 60 will exceed 400 million, accounting for more than 30 percent. The average age is 40 years old, and the trend of the workforce population from more than 900 million to 2.5 billion is ongoing.
The fertility rate is even more suspicious, with a couple having an average of 1.2 children in 2024, expected to fall to 0.9 in 2025, below the current level in Japan. The birth rate per thousand is 7.24, far less than before.
The younger generation's ideas have changed, and no longer feel multi-child prosperity, economic pressure, high cost of education and medical care, so that many people hope and step back.
Youth unemployment is another pain point, with youth unemployment rates between the ages of 16 and 24 rising to 17.8 percent, but the August data is not out, but the trend is not optimistic.
There are 12.2 million college graduates, 430,000 more than the previous year, and the job market is crowded. Many people pretend to have jobs and are actually idle at home.
The economy is slowing down, there are fewer jobs, young people are competitive, and high-skilled people have to go down in demand.
This is a bit like Japan's rapid economic growth after the decline, Japan's young people now have no confidence in the future, and our country has begun to have signs of "laying flat".
The aging population will lower consumption, affect investment, increase medical and pension expenditures, and put great pressure on social security funds.
China’s social security fund has faced the test of sustainability, with delayed retirement policies being pushed, but balanced.
Japan and China have similarities in their population problems, both facing low fertility rate and rapid aging.
Japan's economic stagnation began in the 1990s, and China's economic growth has slowed, both of which have to cope with labor shortages, with Japan relying on elderly people and immigrants, and China's labor force being more but unevenly structured.
Low marriage rates and high pressure on women in the workplace are problems that cross borders. Japan's experience shows that ignoring the demographic structure will lead to a long-term economic downturn.
If China doesn't make preparations early, it may follow suit in 20 years, weakening social vitality and increasing family burden.
Politically, Japan is driving the economy by developing elderly markets, such as healthy food and tourism.
China has also started to act, saying that we should actively deal with aging, support young people, and build a pension system. Retirement delay is being discussed, and the goal is to ease the labor gap.
Robots and intelligent devices are used in China to help the elderly in retirement care. Japan uses community retirement and smart bracelets to ease the burden. China can learn points, combine with their own circumstances, and don't leave the elderly alone.
Overall, Japan's today reminds China that society must have a warmth to make everyone feel like the future has a head.
Otherwise, there are more old people on the street and less vitality, and the days will not be so tasty.
Reference information
Zhang Bin: The real reason Japan has lost 20 years behind, how to solve the current macro-economic problems in China