Text | Shen Remarks
The article is from the original title, please do not copy it.
On September 17, the Pakistani prime minister reached a consensus with the Saudi side, signing a bilateral cooperation agreement, but the content of the agreement is more like a treaty of military alliance.
It stipulates that from today onwards, any country in Saudi Arabia or Pakistan is subject to external military invasion, and the other side must "immediately mobilize armed support", send troops, send weapons, and even go directly to the battlefield.
More importantly, Pakistan has also pledged to Saudi Arabia a “nuclear umbrella”, sending engineers to help Saudi Arabia build a strategic weapons base, and bound the security of the two countries more closely than their brothers.
At the moment of the news, the geopolitical chessboard in the Middle East was knocked out.
Then why did Saudi Arabia's "side choice" come so suddenly? In fact, it was closely related to an air strike. On September 9th, a deafening explosion suddenly came from Oasis City, a high-end residential area in Doha, Qatar.
The Israeli Air Force's F-35I hidden fighter circumnavigated Qatar's Patriot missile defense system, precisely dropped four GBU-39 small-diameter bombs, originally targeting a Qatar Army short-range missile warehouse, resulting in a few hundred meters deviation and fell next to a residential building.
Qatar reacted faster than anyone else. Early the next morning, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs recalled its ambassador to Israel and announced the severance of all diplomatic relations with Israel. In the afternoon, Qatar Airways grounded all flights to Israel.
But what about America?
Trump just tweeted a tweet saying "I regret the violence in Doha", not even the phone call of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, to know that the United States and Qatar signed a joint defense treaty in 2003, the treaty clearly says "the United States is obliged to protect the territorial integrity of Qatar", but this time, the United States chose to remain silent.
Such a scene of insecurity quietly occurred in front of their eyes, and the Saudi also realized that the United States was ultimately unreliable, so they called the phone of Pakistan.
In fact, Pakistan in these years, the days are not much better, India is frequently engaged in the Kashmir region, this year the air war also played a little half a month, Pakistan's aircraft losses are not small, the domestic economy is weak.
Saudi Arabia is Pakistan's largest "gold owner", providing Pakistan with US $3 billion in oil subsidies every year and buying US $1.5 billion worth of military equipment. Previously, the cooperation between the two countries was mainly economic and military training. Pakistani soldiers went to Saudi Arabia as consultants, and Saudi Arabia bought missiles from Pakistan.
This time, Saudi Arabia is A deep alliance that "ties lives together"。
In the next two weeks, the military delegations of the two countries held five closed-door meetings in Riyadh, knocking the contents of the agreement to the death. They reached a consensus that if either side was invaded by the outside world, the other side must "immediately send land, sea and air armed forces to assist in defense" without asking for instructions in advance or discussing details.
The United States is in a hurry, because it has spent 20 years turning the security architecture in the Middle East into a model of "US-led and GCC-followed". When Saudi Arabia buys American F-15SA fighter jets, it has to sign the clause of "cannot attack Israel". The United Arab Emirates has to let the United States supervise the construction of nuclear power plants, and even Qatar's natural gas exports have to listen to the "advice" of the United States.
But now, Saudi Arabia has chosen Pakistan, which is equivalent to slapping the United States directly in the face: "I don't need your protection, I have other choices."
What is even more panicked than the United States is Israel. An internal report by the Israeli intelligence agency Mossad called the cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan an "existential threat." What Israel is most afraid of is Pakistan's The Nuclear Umbrella。
Pakistan is the world's fifth largest nuclear power, has about 170 nuclear warheads, as well as "Shahin-3", "Hattaf-9" and other ballistic missiles, the range can cover the entire territory of Israel, before Israel dared to bomb Syria's nuclear facilities, dared to attack Iran's nuclear scientists, is because the Arab countries do not have nuclear weapons, Israel hit you, you are not able to retaliate.
But now it's different. Saudi Arabia has Pakistan's nuclear protection. If Israel dares to attack Saudi Arabia again, it has to consider whether Pakistan will use nuclear missiles to fight back? The commentator of Israel's Haaretz newspaper wrote bluntly: "The cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan has made our decades of military superiority disappear overnight."
At the emergency meeting of the Israeli cabinet, Netanyahu patted the table and said, "The United States must give a statement!" But what can the United States give? If you don't even care about Qatar, can you still manage Saudi Arabia?
Furthermore, India's "obstruction of Pakistan" strategy, considered to be thoroughly blurred, before India wanted to pass through Saudi Arabia, to expand its influence to the Middle East, such as selling India's software, medicines, let the Saudi evacuate Pakistan, but now, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan are bound together, India's calculus is broken.
More importantly, Pakistan has the support of the Saudi Arabia, the military strength will be significantly increased, before Pakistan and India fought the air war, used the Chinese J-10CE fighter jets, ammunition mainly relied on the supply of China.
Now Saudi Arabia will invest at least $5 billion in military aid to Pakistan, help Pakistan to replace the army's MBT-2000 tanks with the German Leopard 2A7, help the navy to build a new F-22P class escort ship, help the air force to buy more J-10CE ammunition, with the support of Saudi Arabia, their defense capabilities can improve, of course, not a star and a half.
Speaking of which, many friends asked, why did Saudi Arabia choose Pakistan instead of the United States? The answer is actually very simple, America's commitment is not as effective as Pakistan's nuclear bomb。
The U.S. is a country with “interests first” and he may help you when you need him, but when he has more important things, he will not hesitate to abandon you, like this Israeli airstrike on Qatar, the U.S. doesn’t even say because he wants to move the Middle East’s troops toward the Asia-Pacific against China.
Pakistan is different: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are both Islamic countries with common religious and cultural identity. Pakistan has nuclear weapons, which can give Saudi Arabia a "sense of security". More importantly, Pakistan will not "blackmail" Saudi Arabia like the United States. The United States will let Saudi Arabia cut oil production and let Saudi Arabia deal with Iran, but Pakistan will only help Saudi Arabia maintain its security.
Will this change the future of the Middle East?
Definitely it will.
In the former Middle East, security was dominated by the United States, the United States said to beat who to beat who, the United States said with whom and about whom, but now, Saudi and Pakistan's cooperation has made the Middle East a "multipolar" trend: the United States, China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, multiple forces balance each other.
It’s also good news for China, as Saudi Arabia now wants to get China to participate in the Gulf security architecture, and Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Fezar recently visited China, referring to “the hope that China will help build a counter-terrorism cooperation mechanism in the Gulf region.”
China will not pursue hegemony like the United States, but will cooperate with Saudi Arabia on an equal footing. For ordinary people in the Middle East, this means a safer life. In the past, they had to worry about Israeli air strikes and American intervention. Now, with Pakistan's protection, they can go to work, go to school and spend time with their families with more peace of mind.
The agreement signed by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan is not "choosing sides", but "awakening", awakening to the point that they can no longer rely on other people's security commitments, and awakening to control their own destiny.
The US-Israeli "breakdown", in fact, is the result of their long-term hegemony in the Middle East, you always bully others, others will always try to resist, and the choice of Saudi Arabia, is the first step of resistance.
In the future Middle East, there may no longer be a situation where "the United States has the final say", but there will be more cooperation and more balance, and this is the beginning of real peace.
Article case process, pictures are all from the network, no misguided and other bad guidance.If the case involves copyright or personal infringement issues, please contact us in time, we will remove the content!