After the end of the Madrid talks, Trump's visit to China seems to have hope.
According to the South Korean Morning Post, U.S. President Trump has received an invitation from China for a state visit.The two sides are now entering the final phase of negotiations on the matter.
Information sources said that China issued a visit invitation to Trump on the 15th, and Trump also showed strong interest in it after receiving the invitation letter, although he put two conditions to the Chinese side. : I hope China can buy American soybeans and Boeing aircraft.As long as the Chinese side does these two things, a visit to China is a thing on the plate.
We do not say whether China will promise, but say that the two demands made by Trump are enough to see that the United States is completely out of hand in these two matters.
First of all soybeans. China is the world's largest soybean importer and almost holds the "life and death line" of American soybean farmers.By autumn each year, U.S. soybeans will receive a large number of orders from China.For example, at this time last year, China has ordered 13 million tons of U.S. soybeans and started shipping successively.
But this year's situation is completely different, so far, Chinese buyers have not booked a ship of U.S. soybeans.The U.S. soybeans association has rushed to shout straight, warning that if China does not delay the order, the loss of U.S. soybeans will be calculated in millions of tons.
According to the forecast of Chicago Agricultural Resources, If China still did not purchase by mid-November, U.S. soybeans sales to China would lose up to 14 million to 16 million tons.
To know, in Trump’s box office, farmers are an important link. Soybeans can’t sell out, not only economic losses, but also a political crisis. For Trump, is it possible to stabilize farmers, directly related to his domestic support rate. In other words, China just pressing the “no purchase” button, can make Trump sleep trouble.
After the 737 MAX crash, China was the first country to stop flying, since Boeing defeated the Chinese market segment, and Airbus instead sat on the head and crossed the chair. After 2019, Chinese airlines and leasing companies only placed orders for 30 Boeing aircraftCompared to the previous hundreds, it can be overlooked.
For the United States, aircraft orders have long been an important key to its diplomacy. During Trump’s visit to China in 2017, he signed 300 Boeing orders with China, with a total value of $37 billion.Boeing's deliveries to China peaked the following year, when the Chinese market accounted for a quarter of its global deliveries.
This also allowed Trump to "blow a good wind" after his return home, greatly satisfying his performance needs.Now he returns to the White House and naturally hopes for another similar "victory moment."
To put it figuratively, For Trump, soybeans are the ticket warehouse and Boeing is the face.Once these two conditions are met, he can compare votes and performance, so Trump put forward these two conditions is not surprising, after all, the visit of the head of state is important, and Trump is still a calculated businessman, naturally does not want to go back with empty hands.
The question is whether China will accept it.The answer is probably not so simple.
In fact, for China, even if Trump does not visit China, there is no big impact, frankly. China’s standing on the international scale is hoping that China-US relations will improve, but this does not mean that we will have a compulsory response to Trump, let alone not sacrifice our own interests in order to please the United States.Soybeans can be bought, but not unilaterally “donated”, but based on market needs. Boeing aircraft can also talk, but provided that the United States has to make the corresponding sincerity.
and There is no shortage of negotiations in China.In the case of soybeans, we can completely turn to Brazil, Argentina and other countries, as for aircraft, we have our own domestic large aircraft C919 and C929, not necessarily Boeing.
The biggest characteristic of the Trump person is to mix politics and business together, but this set is not useful for China, if Trump is simply to come to "take something", it is not harmful, even if it does not come. The improvement of China-US relations cannot depend on China's unilateral "cutting meat", but must be based on mutual respect and mutual benefit and win-win.
Bottom line: Cooperation is OK, but it is not a unilateral "handout"; Dialogue is welcome, but never with shackles.