According to Xinhua News Agency on September 18, the European Commission said on 17th that it had submitted to the Council of the European Union sanctions proposals against Israel, involving trade preferential suspension and personnel sanctions.

Karas announces a series of sanctions against Israel (data map)

Reuters pointed out that EU member states have not yet reached an agreement on the above-mentioned sanctions proposal, and it largely depends on the position of Germany, which has so far been reluctant to punish Israel. A German government spokesman said on the 17th that European countries have not yet reached a final opinion on the European Commission's proposal, and Germany hopes to keep communication channels with Israel open.

The European Commission's proposal on the 17th includes partial suspension of trade-related preferential clauses in the EU-Israel Association Agreement, including suspension of preferential treatment for Israeli goods entering the European market, and freezing reciprocal clauses related to bidding for public contracts and protecting intellectual property rights. However, European officials also said that the proposal does not mean that the European Commission requires the suspension of trade with Israel, nor will it affect areas such as capital flows or customs.

European officials estimate that if the proposal finally comes into effect, it will affect Israeli exports to the EU of approximately $5.8 billion, resulting in Israeli paying an additional €2.7 billion in tariffs annually.

EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovic said the proposal means goods from Israel will be subject to the same tariffs as countries that do not have free trade agreements with the EU. "We regret having to take this move. However, given the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, we believe the move is appropriate and moderate," Shefcovic said.

According to EU statistics, the EU is Israel¡¯s largest trading partner, with a goods trade volume of €42.6 billion in 2024, accounting for 32% of Israel¡¯s total foreign trade. last year Israel exported €15.9 billion in goods to the EU, mainly machinery, transport equipment and chemicals.

The European Commission has also proposed sanctions against two far-right Israeli ministers, Israeli settlers who have committed violent acts in the West Bank of Palestine, and 10 senior Hamas officials. According to Reuters, citing European officials, Israeli ministers planning sanctions are Israel¡¯s National Security Minister Ben-Gevre and Israeli Treasury Minister Smotrich.

Israeli Foreign Minister Shal wrote on social platform X that the European Commission¡¯s proposals were ¡°morally and politically distorted and hoped they would not be adopted.¡±

The picture shows Israeli Foreign Minister Saar (data map)

The British "Guardian" pointed out that the suspension of trade terms with Israel requires a weighted majority vote of at least 15 of the 27 EU member states and representing 65% of the EU's population, so it must be supported by Germany or Italy. In addition, sanctions against Israeli ministers and senior Hamas leaders need unanimous support from EU member states and are unlikely to be passed. Hungary is a close ally of the Israeli government and has prevented the EU from imposing sanctions on Israeli "violent settlers".

EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaj Karas admitted on Thursday that while the public opinion (in European countries) is changing due to the suffering in the Gaza Strip, "the political line remains fundamentally consistent with the previous."

The Palestinian health department in the Gaza Strip said on Friday that in the past 24 hours, Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip have killed at least 98 people and wounded 385 people. The Israeli military on 16 announced an expanded ground attack on Gaza City in the north of the Gaza Strip. According to the Palestinian news agency on 17th, the Israeli army attacked a group of people evacuated southward near the Gaza Strip Hospital on the same day, killing at least 13 people.

Extended reading

With more than 100,000 Israeli soldiers gathered, can the 45 square kilometers of Gaza City be held?

Gaza City, the largest city on the eastern Mediterranean coast of the Gaza Strip, with an area of only 45 square kilometers, is crowded with millions of people.

According to Xinhua news agency, from the night of September 15 to the early morning of September 16, local time, Israel launched a long-planned ground offensive on Gaza City.

Israel claims Gaza City to be (Hamas¡¯s) ¡°last major base¡±, but if it attacked this place, would Israel¡¯s two-year ¡°war giant ship¡± really stop here?

Why siege the city at this time?

On the 16th, Israel ignored international condemnation and domestic opposition and sent ground troops into Gaza City.

Defense Minister Katz said its goal was to control the core strongholds of Hamas rule.

The Israeli army predicts that the ground offensive may last for several months. At present, two divisions of the Israeli army composed of tens of thousands of soldiers are already fighting in Gaza City, and another division will also join, increasing the number of soldiers by another tens of thousands. In addition to the existing 70,000 reservists, about 60,000 reservists have also been called up to join the operation.

Other cities in Gaza have been razed to the ground in multiple rounds of Israeli attacks over the past nearly two years. As of August, the Israeli army has controlled about 70% to 75% of the Gaza Strip. Today, Gaza City may not be spared.

The international community widely condemned this. British Foreign Secretary Cooper called the Israeli military action "extremely reckless and outrageous".

Shanghai Foreign Language University Institute of Middle EastNoting that the Israeli Cabinet approved the plan last month to take over Gaza, the main obstacle at the moment is Gaza City.This ground operation aims to clear Hamas's last core base and completely remove the final "nail" of "total takeover of Gaza".

From the perspective of urban characteristics, the population of Gaza City accounts for about half of the total population in Gaza. It is estimated that about 600,000 people are still stranded. The damage to buildings and infrastructure is lower than that in other areas, providing support for Hamas to carry out its activities. Israel claims that there are still about 3,000 Hamas fighters in Gaza City.

Evacuated Gazans

Faced with the condemnation of the Arab countries and the international public opinion, Israel¡¯s move has both the intention of showing force and humiliating the countries in the region, trying to demonstrate its determination to push for military action.

The United States "gave the green light"?

Coincidentally, Israel's action occurred shortly after US Secretary of State Rubio visited Israel on the 15th. Rubio publicly stated that the United States supports Israel in "eliminating Hamas."

The outside world believes that it is the full support of the United States that has promoted the unprecedented escalation of the situation in Gaza.

In a statement, Hamas described the Israeli operation as a "systematic genocide war" against the Palestinian people, and accused the United States of bearing "full responsibility" for the consequences of the war.

On the same day, US President Trump's attitude was vague. He said that he was "not quite clear" about all the details of the ground offensive and wanted to see how things developed.

Dinglong pointed out that the United States is the core supporter of Israeli military operations. Without the US¡¯s permission, tolerance, and resources, Israel has no courage and capability to widen the war to such a large scale and cause a serious humanitarian catastrophe.

First, consistency. The United States and Israel are highly consistent in major goals such as opposing Iran and eliminating Hamas. Local differences do not affect the overall situation of the US-Israel alliance.

The second is the priority, although as an ally, Israel occupies an important position in the U.S. global ally map, selecting Israel from the Middle East headquarters of Rubio.

Even if he later appeased Qatar and promised to sign a "defense cooperation agreement", it was just an expedient measure to stabilize allies and would not change the fact that it favored Israel.

More importantly, the United States sees Israel as its ¡°strategic asset¡± in the Middle East, a ¡°non-sinking aircraft carrier¡±: with this ally, the United States can take control of the regional situation and maintain its hegemony in the Middle East.

Thus, even in supporting Israel¡¯s immense short-term moral, economic, and political costs, the United States has chosen to ¡°ignore.¡±

In addition, Ding Long noted that since January, the Trump administration's "bottomless support" for Israel has been regarded by Israel as an important opportunity to advance strategic goals and greatly enhance its confidence in conflicts.

The Gulf states are awake.

After leaving Israel on the 16th, Rubio moved to Qatar and, just before he arrived, the two regional summits ended in Doha.

In addition to issuing documents condemning Israel, the "Arab-Islamic Emergency Summit" called on all countries to unite to deal with threats, and the "GCC Special Summit" announced that it would launch a "joint defense mechanism".

The outside world is not optimistic about the actual effect of the two summits. It is believed that the Gulf countries are sitting on huge wealth, but they have never been able to transform it into real influence and hard power.

Dinglong pointed out that the Gulf countries have not yet been able to change the status quo, the actual strength and the United States and Israel are not in the same scale, and the internal contradictions are profound, making the means of counteracting and retaliating against Israel limited.

However, the Israeli air strike on Qatar, the first in its history to attack the Gulf countries, has shattered the international relations and security landscape in the Middle East and forced them to re-evaluate their security strategies.

For Israel, the incident broke the confidence and fantasy of the Gulf Arab nations about Israel, and changed their ranking of security threats.

In the past, they regarded Iran as the main threat, but now Israel has become a new hidden danger. Their process of normalizing relations with Israel has stalled.

In terms of U.S. relations, U.S. paranoia and ineffective protection have shaken the confidence of the Gulf nations.In the short term, they are still difficult to get rid of security dependency on the United States, but have realized that they cannot completely "outsource" their security, and have begun to seek to increase their autonomy in the military and security fields.

From a more macro perspective, Dinglong pointed out that the security pattern in the Middle East is being re-shaped, and the Gulf countries may begin to chase a path of strategic autonomy.

The war may not end

Looking back over the past two years, Israel¡¯s war machine blows, and Gaza is gradually blurred into a ¡°white paper¡±.The outside world asks, what is Israel¡¯s real goal?

Ding Long pointed out that even if Israel captures Gaza City, the war may not end.

First, Israel has neither a reconstruction plan nor a governance plan. Its core idea is to transfer all Palestinians out of Gaza, fundamentally change the status and inherent attributes of this area, and eliminate its security threat to Israel.

As for Gaza¡¯s people¡¯s development and social stability, it¡¯s completely out of the scope of its consideration. This also means that the current state of destruction and unrest in Gaza may continue for years as long as the occupation continues, the Palestinian resistance will not stop, and Israel itself may fall into the dungeon.

Second, Israel is likely to seek new targets and push the war in other directions.

After September 9, Israel attacked six Arab countries in 72 hours, extending its range to the Gulf region and North Africa, while continuing airstrikes on Yemen's Houthi armed forces.

¡°This ¡®war-hearted¡¯ model consolidates both domestic political status and reflects the dream of the ¡®Great State of Israel¡¯,¡± Dinglong said, saying that the Israeli right-wing believes that this is the opportunity to accelerate territorial expansion.

From this perspective, Israel¡¯s ambitions or when the war in Gaza will end, and what the outcome will be, are still unknown and may be worse than one might think.¡±

Next, Israel must accelerate the expansion of settlements on the West Bank and further devour Palestinian land.

In contrast, an increasing number of Arab and ¡°global southern¡± countries are trying to promote the establishment of a Palestinian state through diplomatic and international law.

On September 22, the United Nations General Assembly will hold a high-level international meeting on the "two-state solution". It is expected that many countries will announce their recognition of the Palestinian state.

¡°These efforts reflect the backwardness of the international community,¡± said Dinglong, ¡°which will inject hope in the long run for a solution to the Palestinian issue.¡±But under U.S. protection, Israel¡¯s expansion impulses are difficult to contain and the international community¡¯s diplomatic voices are still thin.