The old wrongdoers have new hatred, and the Russian drone "invasion" of Poland may not be so easy.
According to the Polish military, a large number of Russian military drones suddenly appeared in Polish airspace from 9 to 10 September. The airports in four cities, including the Polish capital Warsaw and Southeast Chernobyl, were forced to shut down.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk clearly remembered the 1939 Soviet-Soviet “shutdown history” and described the incident as “an unprecedented invasion” in a September 10 speech, although the Russian Defense Ministry had already stated that it had no plans to attack Poland, Polish President Navalny had asked NATO to launch an “emergency consultation clause”.
So why is Russia angering Poland at this time?
1. Anti-Russian "Depth Charge"
At the Munich Security Summit held five days before the outbreak of the Russian conflict, Poland openly proposed to provide Ukraine with "defensive weapons".In October 2023, Tusk's cabinet not only fully inherited the Ukrainian policy of the former Moravitsky, but also strengthened the diplomatic position of the anti-Russian "accelerator" in terms of humanitarian aid, military training and so on.
Russian drones appeared in Poland’s airspace, most likely to undermine Poland’s capabilities in Ukraine.
First of all, the highly tense situation in Poland will significantly slow down the efficiency of the transshipment of aid supplies to Ukraine. Among Ukraine's seven land neighbors, the only Western countries that vigorously aid Ukraine are Poland, Moldova, Romania, and Poland, which has a border of more than 520 kilometers with Ukraine, has been passing through border cities such as Rzeszów for more than three years. Kiev transfers aid materials from many western countries.
The sudden attack by Russian drones, although it did not cause substantial damage to Poland, but the emergency closure of the Heathrow airport has left Ukraine very tense.If the Russian military drones frequently come to Poland or Romania, such as Ukraine on the land of neighboring countries "squared doors", the Ukrainian army is likely to face the difficulty of "no rice cook".
Second, it is difficult for Poland to continue providing military aid to the Ukrainian army because it is tired of dealing with Russian threats. Poland has already provided Ukraine with more than €3 billion in equipment assistance, including Leopard 2 tanks and MiG-29 fighter jets. Unlike Western countries that only spend money and equipment, Poland, which is "good-do-end", has also trained a large number of tank pilots, drone operators and other combat personnel for the Ukrainian army.
The Russian military used only 19 drones to shake Poland, the Polish Air Force not only mobilized the Sabo-340 early warning aircraft, F-16 fighter aircraft and other operational forces, but also specifically requested the Dutch Air Force to send F-35 fighter jets to shoot down at least eight drones. If Poland were to react to the Russian threat with such a flagship afterwards, they would have no space to handle Ukraine’s mess.
Intelligent pressure testing
While NATO has been helping Ukraine through international mercenary channels, it has not changed the principle of not having a direct conflict with Russia. However, after the "August 15th Special Meeting", Trump's patience with Putin dropped significantly.
In recent years, Trump has not only publicly encouraged Ukraine to attack Russian domestic targets, he has also forced allies such as the EU and the UK to step up sanctions on Russia and its economic partners.
Russia’s most important strategic objective at the moment is to advance the Russian-Ukrainian front as soon as possible, and Putin, of course, is not willing to be distracted from Poland, but he must put some pressure on NATO.
First, the high interception cost.The cheapest AIM-120 missile used by the Dutch Air Force to shoot down Russian drones costs US $1.37 million, and the maximum cost of those "Geranium-2" drones that invaded Polish airspace does not exceed US $20,000. NATO's response tactic of "fighting mosquitoes with artillery" shows that they are not ready to directly deal with the threat of Russian drones. In the short term, the Russian army does not have to worry about the risk of direct conflict with NATO.
Second, respond with a bluff.In response to the request of President of Poland Navrocki to initiate the "emergency consultation clause", NATO has officially launched the "Eastern Guard" military operation on September 12, several European members of NATO, represented by Germany and France, are preparing to send a large number of warplanes and warships to strengthen the deployment of Eastern Europe.
Particularly remarkable is the fact that NATO Secretary-General Luther clearly emphasized that “the Russian drone invasion of Polish airspace does not constitute an attack incident”, and that NATO, which is clearly falsified, does not intend to initiate a “common defense clause.”
Cards on the negotiating table
In his speech at the end of August this year criticizing the EU for not allocating 800 billion euros to upgrade armaments, Brazilian President Lula made it clear that both parties to the Russia-Ukraine conflict and European and American countries deeply involved in the war know the fact that "the Russia-Ukraine conflict is coming to an end." The Brazilian president, who has been actively running and mediating between the two countries, should not be wrong.
Putin has been lacking enthusiasm for Russia-Ukraine peace talks since the "8-15 Summit" and, in addition to not being satisfied with the territorial ceasefire conditions, the biggest concern is NATO's continued east expansion. According to Zelensky's request, even if Ukraine cannot join NATO, European countries should use a "peacekeeping force" to ensure that Ukraine enjoys treatment close to the "common defence clause".
Russia, which has been fighting fiercely for more than three years, must not accept an ambush of a NATO army beside its couch. This drone incident is a wake-up call to NATO.If NATO continues to insist on Ukraine's involvement in future Russian-Ukrainian peace talks, or sends "peacekeepers" to Ukraine after a ceasefire, Russia is likely to completely release drone flight restrictions.
What caused NATO countries to collapse was the start of the Eastern Guard operation in less than 24 hours, with Russian drones appearing in Romanian airspace.Although Russia only dispatched one drone this time, NATO, which was like a frightened bird, actually launched four fighter planes to respond. Now it seems that if NATO does not meet Russia's conditions at the negotiating table, they will not want to live a peaceful life.
conclusion
Russia has not yet fully achieved its strategic goal of “special military operations” and will not disperse its forces at this time at all.
This sudden drone incident can not only weaken Poland's ability to aid Ukraine, but also test NATO's strength, and it is also very beneficial to Russia's negotiation initiative.
So, do you think NATO will continue to put pressure on Russia? Welcome to leave a message in the comment area for discussion. If you like our articles, please pay attention to them!
References:
1. "Foreign Minister of Poland: A note has been submitted to the Chargé d'affaires of the Russian Embassy in Poland"
NATO Launches Eastern Guard Operation to Strengthen European Eastern Wing Defense