Preliminary
On September 17, 2025, Poland and NATO are now hostile about the drone crossing of the border, suspicious of a drone flying over Poland. On September 16, Polish Prime Minister Tusk said that a drone was intercepted over the Warsaw government headquarters and two Belarusian suspects were arrested. On December 17, the Polish security department said that the arrested were a Ukrainian man and a Belarusian woman, the operator was Ukrainian, and allegedly there was no “evil intention”.
The missile got out of control and hit its own roof. Why did Poland open its eyes and tell nonsense?
On September 16, local time, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced in Warsaw that he had intercepted a “Russian drone” and arrested two Belarusian suspects, resulting in the next day the security departments were faced – Ukrainian men and Belarusian women were caught, the operators were Ukrainians, and “no malicious intentions”.
The cause of the matter is that Poland has recently been nervously weakened by drones. Starting on September 15, Poland’s eastern border was frequently “Russian drone invasion”, the military urgently launched F-16 launched AIM-120 missiles intercepted. As a result, on the 16th, a civilian house in Lublin province was rocked through the roof by missiles, Polish media first said it was “Russian drone destroyed” and later admitted it was its own missile out of control. This “self-growing hole jump” operation, in fact, has a precedent. In 2022, a missile explosion at the border in Poland killed two people, Poland first accused Russia, the results of the investigation for half a year, and finally the minister of justice personally admitt
Why does Poland always love to throw out Russia? It is clear, that is behind the security anxiety of the NATO Eastern Wing countries. Poland as the NATO's frontline against Russia, in recent years frequently hype "Russian threats", from the missile events in 2022 to this wave of drones, every time can see Poland's "pre-condemnation after investigation" route. More importantly, the maintenance of the Polish Air Force F-16 fighter aircraft is really troubling. In March this year Polish media exposed, because the government has no money, the F-16 even lowered the radar reflection coating is not painted, the defense commissioner directly said it is a "symbol of national disarmament". In this case, the AIM-120 missile failure may not be a coincidence - after all, even basic
NATO is scared, the US is terrified.
NATO Secretary-General Luther urgently launched the "Eastern Guard" operation, Denmark, France, Germany and other countries have sent warplanes, warships, and even plans to send more ground troops to Poland. On the surface it is united against Russia, and actually exposed the crackdown inside NATO. US accusations against Poland are ambiguous, State Secretary Rubio said the drone incident "unacceptable but unknown reasons", and Trump said "may be a mistake", angry Polish Prime Minister Tusk publicly rejected.
More embarrassingly, the AIM-120 missile sold by the United States to Poland has a problem. The AIM-120 as the main U.S. military missile, although its range is designated 160 kilometers, but it is often "shortened" in the actual battle. In the Indo-Pacific air war of 2025, Pakistan shot down the Indian "Fighting Wind" aircraft at 200 kilometers away with the Chinese Armor-15E missile, directly hit the face of the U.S. missile. This time the Polish missile is out of control, once again exposing the reliability of U.S. weapons. There are military experts who point out that the solid rocket engines adopted by the AIM-120 severely declined at the end of the speed, coupled with the Polish F-16 lack of maintenance, and it is easy to
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, NATO’s eastern-wing military spending has risen dramatically, and Poland plans to raise defense spending to 4% of GDP. But this “stack-up” approach does not solve the fundamental problem. Like this incident, Poland bought the F-16 and AIM-120, not only did not play a deterrent role, but instead bombed its own house, making NATO’s “collective defense” promise impotent. Ironically, Russia’s “West 2025” military exercises in Belarus invited the United States, Turkey and other NATO countries to look directly at NATO’s “Russian threat theory”.
Will this make Chinese weapons cheap?
Just last month, Azerbaijan announced that it had spent $4.2 billion on the purchase of 40 Chinese JF-17 Thunder Block-3 fighter jets, and the accompanying Uranus-15E and CM-400 supersonic missiles performed stunningly in the Indo-Pakistan air war, not only hitting the Indian MiG-29, but also bombarding the S-400 air defense system and the Brahmos missile ammunition warehouse.
Simply put, it uses a two-pulse solid rocket engine, which can be lighted twice in the flight, and the range of the super-American AIM-120D. In the Indo-Pacific air war of 2025, the Pakistani J-10CE launched the real range of the J-15E reached 200 kilometers, while the Indian "Wind" fighter aircraft was originally thought to be a safe zone 150 kilometers away, and the result was directly "surface hunting".
Of course, Poland is unlikely to turn to Chinese weapons in the short term. As a NATO member, Poland's arms procurement is restricted by the United States, and Poland has just signed an F-35 purchase agreement worth $6.5 billion with the United States. But the issues exposed by this incident may make more countries "bear a eye" when purchasing. For example, Azerbaijan compared Swedish JAS-39 and American F-16 before buying a dragon, and eventually found that Chinese weapons are not only high performance, but only a third of the price of the F-16. This "price advantage" is increasingly competitive in the international arms market.
In the final analysis, the Polish missile out-of-control incident is like a mirror, reflecting the fragility of NATO's military system. When U.S.-made weapons frequently "fall off the chain" and when political manipulation cannot cover up technical defects, more and more countries are beginning to think: Is it really reliable to pin national security on others? The rise of China's weapons may be the result of this reflection-after all, on the battlefield, weapons that can actually win battles are the last word.