Preliminary

The conflict between NATO and Russia has once again reached its height in recent days.

Although there is no evidence pointing to Russia in the drone incident in Poland, NATO has regarded it as an excuse and is preparing to send troops to fight Russia.

NATO was very discerning and directly launched the "Eastern Sentinel" operation, vowing to confront Russia head-on.

What threat could this so-called “defensive” operation pose to Russia?

Ukraine's "Eastern Guardian"

According to a statement issued by NATO official website, at present, only four countries, Spain, Italy, Britain and Sweden, have clearly stated that they will join the "Eastern Guardian" initiative.

This is not a simple set of numbers, which means that this plan originally aimed at the Eastern Wing defense, coverage at once a lot.

More importantly, NATO Secretary-General Mark Luther spoke directly on Friday, saying that the initiation of the "Eastern Guard" operation, the core purpose is clear, is because of the drone incident in Poland, to give the defence of the Eastern Wing a "lock".

To strengthen defence, countries did not shout slogans.

Germany first sent four Eurofighter jets to the air base in northeastern Poland, and now they are on standby; The Czech Republic was even more quick. On September 14th, three helicopters flew directly to Poland.

Denmark also said that there are fighter jets and air defense patrol ships, Spain and Britain said they would soon announce how to help, and Italy and Sweden were more straightforward, directly saying they were willing to provide assistance.

From this perspective, NATO’s military power in the eastern wing is really rising, not slapping.

All of that "firefire" has to be counted from what Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on Wednesday.

He said a “dangerous Russian-made drone” was shot down over Poland, but he could not find anything to prove when reporters asked for evidence.

Further warming the situation, the President of the European Commission von der Leyen later added, saying more than one drone involved, more than ten.

As soon as this came out, the outside world immediately panicked. If a Russian drone really crossed the border, wouldn't this be a signal of the expansion of the conflict?

However, the Russian side is not happy to hear, and the attitude is determined.

Soon Russian Chargé d'affaires Andrei Ordash said in RIA Novosti that Poland said every day that drones belong to Russia, but the evidence is not even seen now.

More specifically, the Russian Defence Ministry admitted that the Ukrainian defence industry enterprises were actually hit on the night of September 10.

But he never planned to touch any targets in Poland, and even said that he was willing to sit down and talk with Poland and negotiate this border crossing matter, not because he didn't want to solve the problem.

Russian Presidential Press Secretary peskov also complained that the Kremlin had not received Poland's request for contact at all. He also accused the EU and NATO of calling Russia "provocative" every day, but failed to come up with arguments every time.

More directly, Zakharova said that “the Western countries that sent weapons to Ukraine and made threats, now the fragments fly to their own side, but it feels not normal”, which clearly means that NATO itself is also responsible.

It was quite messy enough, and the situation in Belarus added a layer of fog to this matter.

The First Deputy Minister of Defence and Chief of the General Staff of the Belarusian Ministry of Defence, Major General Pavel Muravecko, revealed that they had informed the two countries of drones approaching the border with Poland and Lithuania in the evening.

Poland has also warned Belarus that the drone was coming from Ukraine.

He also said that the Belarusian air defense forces have been pursuing those drones lost due to electronic warfare, some of which have been "disappeared" and have been destroyed in their territory.

Thus, where did the drone come from, and why it came to Poland, there is another explanation.

Reality Analysis

The current situation between NATO and Russia is really chaotic. In order to clarify my thinking, I have made the following analyses.

The first question: Poland says there are Russian drones, but there is no evidence, is this really such a drone, or there are other considerations?

Objectively speaking, Poland, as a country close to Ukraine, has normal tensions with air targets and can first understand the situation publicly.

But there is nothing wrong with Russia asking for evidence. After all, this involves accusations at the national level. Without a real hammer, who is willing to recognize this "pot"? That's why both sides are still fighting for "evidence".

The second question: Is NATO’s accelerated deployment of the East Wing through this incident a real emergency response, or is there a long-term expansion plan, just taking this opportunity to advance?

NATO has clearly stated that it was only because of the Polish drone incidents that the "Eastern Guard" operation was launched, which was, on the surface, a defensive operation.

But we can also reasonably guess that NATO may have felt that the eastern flank needed to strengthen its defense, and this incident just became the "excuse".

The third question: Belarus said that drones came from Ukraine and also mentioned electronic warfare. Could this be part of the truth?

After all, Belarus has directly tracked drones near the border, and the situation may be more specific.

But Poland and the EU say it is Russian, and the parties say sorry, and now there is no third party to verify that the truth of the matter is like wrapped in the fog, no one is allowed to say.

Looking back now, the truth of the Polish drone incident has not yet been clarified, the two sides blamed each other for a moment, and for a moment to prove, the game is still going on.

NATO has taken this opportunity to rapidly increase its troops and expand its initiative in the Eastern Wing, complicating the previously tense situation around Russia and Ukraine.

The military confrontation and public opinion confrontation between Russia and NATO on the eastern flank have now become the key to affecting the security of this region. A slight disturbance may make the situation go worse.

conclusion

In fact, whether it is NATO or Russia, whether it is Poland or Belarus, everyone wants safety.

But security is never based on the "stack of military forces" "to blame each other", first to find out the truth of the drone incident, "sitting down" is far more useful than the increase of troops and confrontation.

I hope all parties can be more calm and less impulsive, and don't let this tense atmosphere escalate again. After all, no one wants to see the day when the conflict expands.

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