U.S. soybean harvest season is about to come, but on this side of China, four weeks in a row, there is no order of soybeans, this is the first time since Trump came to power to encounter this situation, what is behind?
U.S. President Trump
Let's take a look first, According to data released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Chinese orders for soybeans from the U.S. in September were “zero” for four consecutive weeks.。
To know, before China was the "big buyer" of U.S. soybeans, at most times can buy 25 million tons a year, accounting for six-percent of U.S. soybeans exports.
North Central IowaThere is a call.Hill isThe farmers, in the hands of 1000 acres of land, used specifically to grow soybeans and corn, this year looking to harvest, but no one harvested.
He told local media: "Last year can still be supported by subsidies, this year subsidies even farm machine loans are not enough to repay, and so on only sell the farm."
Not only he, but 500,000 farmers across the United States are facing this problem.
Ragland, president of the American Soybean Association, recently pointed out at an agricultural exhibition that there is not enough demand in the domestic or international markets to make up for the vacancy in the Chinese market.
For the American farmers,China is irreplaceable.。
President of the American Soybean Association, Lagrange, expressed concern
Even Trump has to recognize the seriousness of the problem, after all, the six agricultural states in the Midwest belong to the key box office.
So a while ago, he deliberately shouted on social platforms, asking China to quadruple its orders. What was the result? Still doesn't work.
China is8 million tonsSoya orders all come to South America, not onlyin SeptemberDirect purchases of soybeans in the United States"Clear", even in October, it went on to buy from South America.
Why does China not buy bills? in fact, it is not the “deliberate pressure” that the United States says?
When Trump first raised tariffs on China in 2018, someone told him "don't do this, things will happen", but he did not listen, thinking that China could not leave U.S. soybeans.
U.S. soy farmers suffered heavy losses at the time, and the government issued $23 billion in subsidies, which resulted in only 40% of the hole being filled.
American soybeans
Supposedly, it should be changed after suffering a loss, right? But Trump increased his weight again in 2025, and wanted to use high tariffs to force China to "bow its head".
But he didn't think that China in the past seven years was in the back of the ground, and laid the "backway" steadily.
Looking for “new partners.”Brazil now accounts for 72% of Chinese imports, Argentina and Peru followed, with exports to China increasing by more than 30% this year.
On the other hand, its own province.Domestic feed companies have long been reducing the amount of soybean meal. For example, reducing the proportion of soybean meal in pig feed to 10% can save a lot of costs a year.
With such promotion across the country, tens of millions of tons of soybeans can be used less a year, which is equivalent to more than 70% of what was previously bought from the United States.
Until the U.S. imposes tariffs in 2025, China will no longer rely on soybeans.
You increase your tax, I buy my South American beans, and I can save them myself. Naturally, I don't have to look at Trump's face.
China and Brazil deepen agricultural cooperation
Through the phenomenon, the essence will be discovered, in fact, this is far more than "buy not buy soybeans" so simple, Behind it is a contest between two globalization ideas, and it is also a game of interests between countries.
First of all, look at the idea of the United States: it has always felt like a “boss”, wanting to rely on tariffs and subsidies to control the market.
In the past, U.S. soybeans accounted for 41% of global exports. I felt that China couldn't do without it, so I dared to increase tariffs casually.
Unexpectedly, the market didn't buy it. China switched to buying South American soybeans, and the European Union and Mexico followed suit. Now the global share of American soybeans is only 28%, but Brazil has become the first, accounting for 40%.
Moreover, the subsidies in the United States can't last anymore. 23 billion can't fill the hole, and soybean farmers have developed the habit of "waiting for subsidies". Now that the subsidies can't keep up, the wave of bankruptcy is coming.
Trump still needs to maintain the ticket base
Even worse, Trump's political trouble.The six agricultural states in the Midwest, which were formerly the Republican party's "iron box office", are now unable to do the bean farming business, and the support for Trump has naturally begun to fall.
Therefore, Trump is also now difficult to retreat: if the abolition of the surplus tariffs, the image of his own "hard against China" will be lost; if it is not canceled, the stock market will be in danger, and this is the root of his own unilateral policy.
Look at China’s thinking: not engaging in “monopoly”, engaging in “win-win”.
To cooperate with Brazil, not only to buy soybeans, but also to help people to repair railways and build terminals, so that Brazil can stabilize long-term supply;
Cooperation with countries such as Argentina and Peru is also mutually beneficial, so these countries are willing to deal with China because they can see long-term benefits.
This “win-win” approach has made China more and more important in soybean trade – not by “buying more” but by a stable supply chain, its own technological capabilities, and cooperation with other countries.
Port Trade
Now the United States has finally recognized the reality: China's "irreplaceable" in soybean trade is spelled out by solid layout, not by anyone's "charity".
It's useless to rely on unilateral policies and extreme pressure. Only by respecting market rules and cooperating with others for mutual benefit can we stand up in the global industrial chain.
If the U.S. does not understand this, later similar “order clearance” may happen in more areas.