On July 4, 2025, early in the morning, the sky in Kiev was not yet bright, and 476 drones blasted into the sky. The Russian army dropped 550 air weapons, and even the "cockpit" missiles were taken out. This air strike was the largest of the war to date.
On the same day, Russia announces defense budget of 13.5 trillion rubles, accounting for 6.3% of GDPThis is almost 30% higher than last year.The longer you hit, the harder it took.This is not unbearable, the more you hit.
Did anyone say that Russia would win?
If it really wins, what does it mean for China? don't wait for the situation to begin, now you have to work out three things and do it in advance.
Energy this piece, don't wait for someone to hold you, be ready to kick the door
How "positive" is Russia towards China now? Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko put it straight: " We will provide as much oil as China needs.This sounds pretty comfortable, in fact, it is - you are my big customer, I rely on you to eat. but you really believe it has no other calculator?
In 2023, China bought 1.07 billion tons of crude oil from Russia, the first to break the billion. the ratio increased by 24%. the same year, LNG bought 8.5 million tons, also increased by 23%. oil also bought, gas also bought, Russia turned from energy supplier to "energy giant".
From March 2025, China has not bought a drop of U.S. crude oil for three consecutive months.The data for May is still zero. Bloomberg says this is the longest time China has not purchased U.S. oil since 2018.
Why not buy? can't. The tariff friction of the United States of China, has long been the trade in crude oil not counted. On April 11, 2025, the Chinese side adjusted the import tariffs on U.S. oil to 125%. The price advantage of U.S. shale oil, directly gone. At this time, Russia came up, the cheap amount of oil is enough, and the role of not rushing to become the main character.
But the problem comes, you have been relying on Russia's oil supply, it is the same as passing the oil meter and lifespan. In the short term we can buy the bill, in the long term it is really stuck. Who gives you a few folds, you rely on whom, it is no difference from buying food.
In fact, it's not that Saudi Arabia can't compete, but it doesn't want to confront it head-on. In June 2023, the Saudi energy minister publicly stated,"We hope to cooperate, not compete." "In the same year, Saudi Aramco and us signed a joint venture of over 100 billion yuan, refined, petrochemical, invested in Liaoning, and also invested in Guangdong.
But the reality is that in 2024, Saudi Arabia’s share was robbed by Russia a lot. Just like old friends at the dining table were still laughing and cuddling, as a result, you quietly drank two glasses of wine with new friends.
China is not without options, only to have a prediction. don't wait for Russia to win, raise the price, the conditions, only to think of energy can not be held aside.
Energy is not just a “buy” thing, it’s where the refineries are, where the pipelines are laid, and who has settled the currency, it’s the question of who has said it. To truly win strategic security, China has to prepare a few roads. Energy is not who sticks and who relies on it, but must have options, can replace, dare to turn the face.
Friends cannot wait to meet, they must warm up before others are cold.
On September 12, 2025, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said something very honest: "China has helped 40 million people around the world lift out of poverty." Note that this is in countries in the global South, It's not the trunk line of the belt and road initiative, nor a strategic town, but a poor place in the real corner.
Inland Africa, the outskirts of the islands of Southeast Asia, and the small cities of South America that you have to enlarge three times on the map to see.
What has China done in the last few years? grass, hydroelectricity, hybrid rice, all sent out. The sending is not something, it is the ability to get rid of poverty. Not money, it is how the church makes blood. Light 2023 to 2025 China has repaired 42 clean water systems in East Africa and laid up a "photovoltaic microelectric network" in Bangladesh, affecting more than 11 million people.
This is not a glamorous project, it is a step by step.
Before this, no one did it, the U.S. did a lot, but there is a prerequisite: you must come according to their rules. one side help, one side condition. say, is to help you three points, control you seven.
But now Europe and the United States do not have that effort.Russia and Poland began the battle, and almost all of Western Europe went to "military spending represents 2% of GDP".
The West can't care about the "global south", China has to top up. This top, can't be as a boiler. to be a designer. is not who is behind me to help, but to turn help into structural cooperation.
"South-South cooperation" is not a slogan, but a direction. In 2025, China officially proposed to establish a southern circle of friends with "mutual benefit, mutual trust and interoperability". This circle of friends is not added casually, it can land. You can build roads, build factories, and drive the industrial chain.
And now it is the period of the air. Europe and the United States are shrinking, the southern countries are empty windows, if China does not enter the game at this time, then who will start?
So this can not start until Russia wins, but must accelerate now. We have to set our time zone first when others change their watches.
Disconnect is not who turns his face, but you go the other way first.
Early in the morning of July 4, 2025, the Russian military fired a heavy hammer. One night fired 550 air weapons, 476 drones plunged into Ukraine.
The Ukrainian army intercepted a lot, but Kiev was still on fire. The scene came out, and the United States immediately adjusted the tone and suspended some of the Ukrainian aid projects. The Ministry of Defense said to “evaluate the effect of the policy”.
It means: the West has begun to hesitate. keep throwing money, afraid of blowing water; don’t throw, Ukraine can’t stand.
And at this time, Russia raised a bill: the military budget for 2025 is 13.5 trillion rubles, accounting for 6.3% of GDP.
What is this signal to China? We cannot expect the Americans to step back, and China will automatically move forward.
Chip, AI, cloud services, new energy, these core technologies, start to create and run on their own. supply chain no longer rely on "global", but on "regional chain".
In 2025, China and Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, began to buy oil in yuan.
Previously it was the dollar world, China merged in; now it is the bipolar pattern, China must stand firm.
If you look at China and the U.S. trade in crude oil, three months of zero procurement is a signal. I do not blame you, I do not depend on you, I take my new path.
This hand is not a temporary initiative, but a strategic lay-out. Only actively disconnect, will not fail when others leave.
So the third thing is not "breaking", but "standing". First weave your own net, settle your accounts, and then see how the world changes.
References:
Innovation High!Russian Army Launches Massive Air Strikes. Global Times. 2025-07-04
Russian defense spending is expected to reach 13.5 trillion rubles in 2025, a significant increase from 2024. — Global Times, 2024-10-02
US media: Russian-Ukrainian conflict “dramatically changes the appearance of war”. reference news. 2024-02-28
China imports more than 100 million tons of crude oil from Russia for the first time. interface news. 2024-01-22
During the tariff war, Russia stated that we will provide as much oil as China needs. Extreme News. 2025-04-14
Saudi Energy Minister: China's oil demand continues to grow, and Saudi Arabia hopes to seize opportunities to cooperate with China rather than compete.
For 3 months in a row! China refuses to buy American oil. Observer.com. 2025-07-04
How can China help Southern countries with poverty reduction cooperation?The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded: It is willing to give birth to hope in every piece of land.