In September 2025, a diplomatic and military interaction across half the globe turned the world¡¯s eyes from East Asia to the Caribbean coast of South America.

September 3, by BeijingIn a solemn parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the victory of the Chinese people's War of Resistance against Japan and the World Anti-Fascist War, VenezuelanA seemingly unobtrusive ceremony was called by many observers a ¡°diplomatic earthquake.¡±

On that day, the ¡°Chinese Victory Commemoration Square¡± in Caracas, Venezuela Completed. The five-star red flag flutters in the equatorial sun, Venezuelan PresidentMaduro Personally unveiled and publicly announced¡°China is our brother¡± is not only a diplomatic show, but a strategic signal that is publicly transmitted: in the context of US fleet pressure, Venezuela has chosen to stand on the side of China in front of the world.

Why Venezuela?

For the average reader, the impression of Venezuela is not necessarily profound. The oil kingdom of South America"The oil reserves are the world's first, more than Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Once because of the rich flow of oil, the welfare was generous to speak - the price of gasoline was low so that domestic taxi drivers did not care about oil price changes.

But with the fall of oil prices, political conflict, and U.S. sanctions, the country¡¯s economy has fallen into recession. The US dollar payment system was pinchedFor the United States, Venezuela is not only a strategic puzzle of South America, but also Central America's offshore Important Energy Points¡£

For China, Venezuela is an important partner in the ¡°Belt and Road¡± expansion to Latin America, with China signing an agreement on energy, infrastructure and financial cooperation with Venezuela in 2014 and even providing for the extension of the Belt and Road to Latin America. More than $50 billion in oil loan agreements¡£

What does the square on September 3 mean?

This is not an ordinary square, and its ¡°design details¡± hide information:

• In front of the statue are the national flags of the two countries. -This symbolizes "fighting side by side";
• The sculpture base is engraved with the names of 34 provincial administrative regions in China Listing Taiwan as a province in China and expressing direct support in international events The Chinese Principle.£»
• It was completed on the day to commemorate the victory of China's Anti-Japanese War-it is both a historical tribute and a political voice.

Diplomatic analysts believe this is a double message actively released by Venezuela:
The first, Close the political distance of the CPC and seek economic and security support£»
Second, under U.S. military coercion, through China, show that they will not be isolated and helpless.

3. All-weather strategic partnership: the economic chain behind politics

The relationship between China and Venezuela was not established by one or two high-profile meetings, but Years of deep binding of energy cooperation and capital interoperability¡£

Binding oil

Venezuela's crude oil production costs are extremely low, with a discount of less than $10 per barrel.But transportation exports rely on international finance and shipping system, and under U.S. sanctions, international oil companies do not dare to take over.China silently became Venezuela through state-owned enterprises, joint oil field projects and targeted procurement contracts. The largest crude oil export marketOne of them.

2. "Loan oil change" model

In the past ten years, Venezuela has received approximately 500 to 600 billionThis gives Venezuela¡¯s oil sales a stable buyer and reduces its reliance on the US dollar settlement system.

3. Infrastructure connections

Chinese companies have built highways, housing projects, upgraded power grids in Venezuela, and even helped maintain refineries. $30 billionIt covers many areas such as energy, people's livelihoods, and transportation.

In other words, this is an economic chain-Venezuelan energy is part of China's energy security, and the Chinese market is a life-saving pipeline for Venezuelan economy.

Strong U.S. Intervention

In August, the United States deployed an aircraft carrier battle group, nuclear submarines and thousands of Marines in the Caribbean waters, and sank two suspected drug ships on the grounds of "anti-drug", claiming to have killed more than a dozen "drug dealers".

This action is not merely aimed at the drug issue.The international security community has generally observed that there are three strategic goals behind it:

1. Military deterrence To tell Maduro that the United States has the ability to carry out military strikes in Venezuela¡¯s offshore at any time.
2. The political signal ¨C Warning other Latin American countries not to ¡°go too close¡± to China;
3. economic code --Against the background of tight supply and demand in the oil market, the United States has the ability to directly threaten the exports of this important oil-producing country.

US President Trump said in an interview:
"We'll see. Venezuela is sending drug dealers and gangs to us, which is unacceptable."

This is a typical Trump-style narrative ¡ª seeking the legitimacy of public opinion for economic and military action through security themes.

Why does Venezuela raise the red flag with five stars?

In the eyes of many, the United States is a military superpower, and Venezuela is taking the risk of angering the United States openly, is it not "seeking trouble"?

On the contrary, it is a strategic survival.

• The economic survival lineVenezuela is almost dead in the international energy market, with only China and a handful of countries willing to import its crude oil on a massive scale.
• Political security: Standing on China's side will not make the military threat of the United States disappear, but it will raise international attention. In other words, fighting alone may be swallowed up in silence, but with the endorsement of big countries, every step of the United States will be interpreted under a global magnifying glass;
• Anti-American Traditions: Venezuela's Bolivarian regime has been anti-American for a long time, packaging pro-China as part of the unity of the anti-American camp, which has a bonus effect on domestic politics.

6. The "energy game" behind the pattern

Behind this diplomatic show, in fact, is the dark pattern of global energy.

In 2025, international oil prices will fluctuate around US $90 per barrel. Instability in the Middle East, the unresolved conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and political turmoil in many countries in African oil-producing regions have all made crude oil supply security a focus. In such an environment, Venezuela¡¯s oil reserves are hard currency.¡£

In fact, the U.S. is very clear that if the CPC cooperation goes on another step ¨C such as expanding to more joint oil field development and the settlement of the RMB ¨C it will bring three impacts:

1. Impact on the dollar oil system
   If more crude oil is settled in yuan or bilateral currencies, the dollar¡¯s monopoly as the global energy settlement currency will decline.
2. Weakening U.S. control over Latin America
   Chinese infrastructure investments will gradually change the logistics map of Latin America, weakening the U.S. geoeconomic leverage.
3. Competition on emerging energy routes
   U.S. LNG exports are trying to enter Latin American markets, and if China expands long-term oil purchases, it will indirectly suppress U.S. energy export growth.

Trump¡¯s Options and China¡¯s Response

The contradiction that Trump faces is...
Military intervention is costly, and once oil prices rise, it will impact the U.S. domestic economy and public opinion; but if it is left to China to deepen relations, it will weaken U.S. regional dominance.

Tools he may take include:

• Increased financial sanctions Venezuelan energy projects aimed at China¡¯s participation;
• Pressure the intermediary country - Forcing countries such as Panama and Colombia to increase barriers to shipping and port links;
• Information warfare and public opinion warfare --Portray China-Venezuela cooperation as an "autocratic alliance" to hit the acceptance of international public opinion.

China¡¯s response could be:

• Distributed risksReduce the risk of external blockade through multi-national, multi-port and multi-transport routes;
• Expansion of bilateral trade: In addition to oil, it extends to agricultural products, minerals, infrastructure finance and other industries;
• International multilateralismTo introduce more "global southern" countries to participate in the CPC projects, to avoid being isolated by unified labels.

8. Conclusion: The ocean-going game behind a flag

Some people say that this is just a symbolic diplomatic action.
But the senior observers know, Diplomatic symbols often precede geopolitical changes¡ª¡ªespecially in the game of great nations involving energy security and global supply chains.

The moment Venezuela raised a five-star red flag in the capital, not just a South American political showcase, it gave the world another option: in an area of rapidly increasing U.S. military pressure, a resource power ¡°vote¡± for cooperation, giving China a cross-ocean strategic backbone.

Trump¡¯s ¡°watch¡± sounds like a provocation, but it¡¯s more of a reality he has to face¡ªa new energy and economic alliance that is forming under his eyes.

References:

1. Press Release from the Presidential Office of Venezuela (3 September 2025)
2. China's Ministry of Commerce's "China-Latin America Bilateral Trade Data Report (2024)"
3. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) International Crude Oil Market Analysis
4. Report by South American reporter
5. International Energy Agency (IEA) Oil Market Report 2025
6. SWP German Institute for International and Security Affairs: Latin American Energy and China Investment Analysis

Do you think the United States will really use force against Venezuela?
Will the CPC Energy Alliance trigger a new round of oil-dollar war?
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