The Russian-Ukrainian conflict lasted for more than three years, the Russian military-industrial system suffered severe damage, which put the Su-57 fighter aircraft project in the dungeon, and the Indian Air Force is urgently seeking to upgrade, if Russia really sells the fifth-generation aircraft to India, China must seriously think about how to respond to safeguard regional stability and its own security.
Russia's Su-57 supply chain faces crisis
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict in February 2022, Russia has faced all-round sanctions in Europe and the US, the military-industrial chain has been severely broken. The Su-57 as the five-generation aircraft that Russia hoped for, was planned for mass production, but the reality is far from favorable. By the end of 2024, the total production of only 21 aircraft, of which the real-world type is only 11, the shipment of only 6 aircraft in that year, more than three times the original plan 24 aircraft. The reason is because of the key parts supply card neck, such as the engine alloy sheet is seven-percent dependent on the Ukrainian factory, now the two countries fight, the route is naturally broken. Carbon fiber material inventory is only enough to build 12 aircraft, electronic components such as
In the face of these difficulties, Russia is eager to find partners to renew the Su-57 project. The United States won't, China has the J-20 and J-35, demand is not large, so the eyes turned to India. In February 2025, at the Bangalore Air Show, Russia openly demonstrated the Su-57, also proposed technology transfer and local production conditions. In June, the Russian Joint Aircraft Corporation added the code, promising full source code access to the Indian Su-57E export version, allowing the integration of Indian domestic systems such as Astra missiles and Rudram missiles. This is not only for the sale of aircraft, but also to borrow the Indian market to activate the industrial chain. The Director of the Russian Federal Bureau of Military Technology Cooperation, Sergei Shoiguev, said that the two sides were talking about the supply of the
There is a real pressure on Russia to do so, the war in Ukraine is consuming a lot, military industry exports are life-saving grain. India is a big Russian traditional customer, has bought the Su-30 in the past, and now the Su-57 can help Russia to maintain the project. But Russia is also aware that China is its comprehensive strategic cooperation partner, and half of its energy exports rely on the Chinese market. Russia will not easily ignore China's concerns, after all, China-Russia relations are friendly and mutually supportive.
Modernization of the Indian Air Force
And the Indian Air Force these years are bad days, the power decline is apparent. In the 2019 Indo-Pasian air war, the MiG-21 was shot down, this year again lost the fighter aircraft, South Asian air deterrence weakened. The Indian Air Force has more than 30 squadrons, but most are old models, Fantasy 2000 and MiG-29 served more than 30 years, maintenance costs are high. Su-30MKI is the main force, but the electronic system is behind, it is difficult to cope with the hidden air warfare. India wants to regional dominance, it has to introduce advanced fighter aircraft. Su-57 long-range strike and defense capabilities are strong, although hidden performance is controversial, but much better than India's current four and a half-generation aircraft. Russia has offered conditions, allowing
China-India border conflict has intensified, India needs strong arms preparedness. Su-57 is in line to strengthen the Indian border air force, build a hidden strike network, and put pressure on the western Chinese battlefields. Indian Air Force assessment reports show that Su-57 is suitable for two-line combat and can carry out deep strikes. Russian proposals include local assembly in India, integrating domestic radar and weapons, reducing external dependence. Indian Air Force’s Nasik base can be directly re-produced, saving investment. India faces China and Pakistan’s threats, the F-35 can’t buy or can’t buy, Su-57 became a real choice. After the June proposal, India considered two or three of the Soviet Union’s Su-57, combined with the Su-35M package purchase.
But India also has to measure the risk, former Indian Air Force officials pointed out that the Su-57 electronic components in large numbers come from China, if the China-India conflict, Russia may be inclined to China, supply interruption. India pursues independence, but in the short term can not separate Russian-India equipment. Russia-India cooperation is likely to be large, but will not ignore the Chinese factor. India, if the Su-57, post-localized air force power upstairs, but this will impact the traditional Chinese-Russian military-trade division of labor, India digested technology, China's five-generation advantages may be affected.
China adopts diplomatic and military measures
If Russia really provides Su-57 to India, China will safeguard its interests from diplomatic, economic and military multiple perspectives. First diplomatically, China can express its concerns to Russia through high-level mutual visits and strategic dialogue. The flow of Su-57 into India will threaten the stability of the Chinese-India border, triggering regional tensions. China, as a comprehensive strategic partnership of Russia, emphasizes not interfering in domestic affairs, but linking arms sales and security issues, creating pressure. In 2023, Russia's energy exports to China accounted for 52%, China can adjust the import pace, prompting Russia to think. Russia is clear that China-Russia friendship is a long-term situation, will not be due to a temporary military sale and fundamental.
At the economic level, China holds 35% of the Su-57 supply chain of rare-earthly materials, such as titanium magnets and uranium, directly affecting radar and engines. China can comply with the use of export quota restrictions, increasing the difficulty of Russian production. At the same time, China expanded investment in infrastructure construction, strengthened India's economic dependence and reduced its will to confront.
Militarily, China has accelerated the development and development of six-generation aircraft, investing more resources and ensuring leadership. The J-20 and J-35 have matured, and the Chinese Air Force has optimized the western deployment andined aerial advantage.
Therefore, Russian Indus-57 cooperation has a good head, but China has a negative response. Russia, as a partner, will weigh the benefits and disadvantages. China's autonomy is strong, six generations advance steadily, regional balance can beined.