On September 15, the fourth round of Sino-U.S. economic and trade talks ended in Madrid, and the representatives of the two countries came together.
Although there was no smell of fire in the venue, the presentation did not shake out the speech, but a series of actions after the meeting.
TikTok ban "slow down", tariff war "stop" key, Trump letter celebration, Mr. Besson shut a breath.
People can ask: is this a real relief, or a respective "decent retreat" for the camp?
The surface and the air, but the back of the dark flow, this round of Sino-American game, hides signals more important than the agreement.
Behind the surfaces of surrender, each thoughtful “deal”
Don’t be overwhelmed by the words “consensus”.TikTok’s “technical delay” just pushed the issue back for 90 days.
The original ban collapsed, and the byte jumped a breath, but the U.S. side did not let go, but demanded a "national security review" of TikTok's core algorithm.
It’s like you keep eating at a restaurant, but you have to turn your kitchen down to the sky first.
Although China agreed to the censorship, the bottom line is clear: data cannot be forced to be localized.
Every step back and forth, no one is satisfied.
At the same time, the tariff war also pressed the “suspension key”.
In August, the United States just imposed a 10% tariff on a quarter of Chinese products, the Chinese side reacted, the American consumer wallet was guilty, the annual expenditure cost more than $48 billion.
The two sides agreed to extend the tax measures for 90 days, leaving room for negotiations.
But the United States wants China to immediately cancel the retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, while the Chinese side slightly rewrote the phrase "research research", which sounds like a promise, in fact, did not give a timetable and did not promise results.
More interesting is the so-called “business agreement framework”.
In general, the US said it covers "low-sensitive areas" such as medicine and electronics, but no specific terms were disclosed.
Are you afraid to announce too much concessions, or are you not talking too deeply at all?
In any case, the outcome of the talks seems to be mediocre, and in reality each hides a calculator.
This is not a real reconciliation, but a necessary, temporary “tactical breathing.”
Trump’s “victory gesture” was forced out of the ballot.
Less than two hours after the talks ended, Trump posted on social media photos of himself and Bessent shaking hands, with the subtitles being familiar: “America is strong again.”
The operation sounds like raising a fist to greet after playing the pitch, but the problem is that the opponent is still sweating in the field and the game is not over at all.
Trump did not win, but found a ladder that would keep him from bleeding before the election.
Shaking the votes of state farmers is Trump’s fate in this election campaign.
In 2024, the worst trade war between the US and China was fought by farmers relying on soybean exports to eat.
Over the course of the year, soybean exports fell by 32 percent, losing more than $5 billion, resulting in Trump’s support in these key states dropped by six percentage points.
If it continues to be hard, I am afraid that the railway station will be relaxed.
Now China hasn’t lifted retaliatory tariffs, but as long as it doesn’t increase the tariffs, Trump will be able to deal with farmers.
And TikTok, don’t underestimate its influence on young people.
Nearly 70 percent of people aged 18 to 34 are active users of TikTok.
Forcing a blockade is to blame a large vote of young voters before the election.
The extension of 90 days not only gave Trump breathing space, but also allowed him to say on the debate table: “I didn’t close TikTok, I’m negotiating.”
Economic data also forced Trump to repair, with U.S. inflation surging again to 4.8 percent in August, and energy growth especially sharp, up 12 percent.
Behind this, in addition to international oil price fluctuations, the more direct driver is tariff transmission to China.
Inflation pressures the U.S. Federal Reserve not daring to lower interest rates, and corporate investment also shrinks.Worse is the chip giants, such as Intel and Qualcomm, whose revenue in China fell 24 percent in the second quarter of this year.
Trump said tough in his mouth, but in his heart he knew: tougher, himself falls first.
Trump’s so-called “performance victory” has also caused a rebound in the United States.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce openly opposed the extension of tariffs, saying that every day of delay would reduce U.S. GDP by $1.5 billion.
This meeting was not a victory for Trump, but a carefully packed “strategic withdrawal.”
China's "retreat to advance" is a long-term card game
The Chinese strategy, this time, is not hard-to-hard, but a set of "soft-to-soft" combined fights.
First, an anti-monopoly investigation was launched against NVIDIA, accusing it of manipulating the price of AI chips, involving up to $3 billion.
Don’t look at this as a regulatory move, but behind it are the seven inches of the U.S. technology core industry.
Subsequently, tariffs of up to 200% on U.S. imported analogue chips were imposed, directly pushing the profit line of these companies directly to the ground friction.
This is not a simple counterattack, but a precise strike, forcing the American side to sit down and talk.
In the fields of rare land and agriculture, China has also shone the bottom line.
Rare-earth refining, China controls 60% of the global production capacity.
Once the U.S. confessed, the U.S. F-35 production line was suspended for a maximum of six months.
This does not include the combined effects of other military and electronic products.
In terms of soybeans, China has long been “backup” well.
In 2024, soybean imports from Brazil reached a new high, 98 million tons, directly reducing dependence on the United States to just 12 percent.
This means that if the U.S. continues to play on agricultural products, China can also completely "do not accept".
China has also pulled the front to international rules, prosecuting the U.S. against abuse of export controls in the WTO, with the support of the EU and 18 ASEAN countries.
This is not only a counterattack at the legal level, but also a circle of international public opinion.
In addition to the “One Belt and One Road” project, Successive landings such as the Zhejiang Railway and Yavan High Speed Railways are undermining the economic pillar of the US "Indo-Pacific Strategy" from the ground up.
This type of play, non-sensitive systematic counter-reaction, does not rely on screaming, but the effect is real.
In contrast to the short-term response of the United States, China is playing a war of endurance, a "asymmetric game" for the future.
Not not to be hard, but to choose a more effective way, so that the other party in the appearance of "no loss" situation, forced to adjust.
In the middle of the Cold War, the game is not over.
Don’t look at the talks without quarrels, without tables, and even foreign media say that “the atmosphere is the easiest in history,” but that doesn’t mean that the Sino-U.S. relationship has substantially improved.
The current easing is more like a temporary cease-fire, in order to give their respective countries a little space to breathe, rather than solve fundamental contradictions.
The U.S. continues to try to transfer pressure on China to Europe, demanding that the EU jointly "increase tax pressure" on China, but was publicly rejected by Germany.
Putin said he could talk with China about Ukraine, but would never accept the Western framework.
This leaves Washington empty.
The global energy landscape has also changed drastically, with OPEC+ announcing massive production cuts, with oil prices jumping over $120, directly impacting U.S. shale oil.
China-Russia gas cooperation expanded to 38 billion cubic meters, and Europe's energy dependence on Russia gradually weakened, weakening the destructive power of U.S. sanctions on Russia.
On the stage of the global South, the BRICS has expanded to 25 countries, contributing more than 40% to global economic growth, and challenged US dominance.
South Africa, Brazil and other countries are also calling on the UN to reform the Security Council, referring to the American-Western-dominated international order.
This U.S. meeting was just a pitch in the bigger chess scene.
The United States wants to use the electoral cycle in exchange for short-term stability, while China uses the global layout to take long-term initiative.
It is not the question of who wins and who loses, but who can survive longer and who can live better in the gaps of the rules.
Breathing is not like shaking hands.
On the meeting table in Madrid, behind the smile is the calculator, and under the shaking of the hand is the game.
TikTok postponed, tariff ceasefire, but temporarily let down the fist, no one really let go.
For Trump, this is a bloodshed before the election.
For China, this is another aspect of the strategic layout.
China-US relations are not a simple opposition, but a complex resonance of interests.
The real problem is not who has made concessions at a time, but who can take the initiative in a long-term game.
Surface retreat may be the beginning of the next counterattack.