The Russian conflict has been going on for a long time.It has attracted a lot of international attention, and the United States also wants to intervene in "reconciliation", but the outcome is not pleasant.
On September 15, the U.S. side said that if China stopped supporting Russia, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would end, directing the international eye to China.
The international situation is unpredictable, in fact, as early as January 2025. The Financial Times revealed a top-secret military program allegedly coming from Russia that has pushed many countries into the center of global public opinion.
The content of the document is quite exciting, saying that once Russia and NATO really work out, the Russian military will not only be in front of Europe, but also intend to preempt people in East Asia, first to hit China's two neighbors.
The news comes, and a lot of people are upset. Which two countries are China’s neighbors?What if the conflict really broke out in China?
The Russian Secret Plan.
The Financial Times revealed in January that it had obtained a bunch of military documents from Russia, a total of 29 from 2008 to 2014.
The document revealed that Russia was concerned that countries such as the United States and its allies would attack Russia’s weaknesses after starting a war with NATO. Russia will be the first to strike Japan and South Korea.
The archives focused on defending Russia’s eastern borders in the context of a massive conflict with NATO.
It is said that it detailed 160 potential targets. There are not only Japanese command centers, radar stations, naval and air force bases.It also includes infrastructure such as transport hubs such as bridges and railway tunnels.
The Russian judgment. In the fight against NATO,It is highly likely that the United States will use its Asia-Pacific allies to pressure from the east, so the Russian military will need to dismantle its ability to concentrate first.
For a specific example, the document even mentions a set of simulated strike schemes, launching a Map-160 strategic bomber, launching 12 Kh-101 cruise missiles to the Osaka Island radar station near the Mitsui base in Japan. The success rate is estimated at 85%.
Although these archives are old materials ten years ago, but the exposure at this time, it is inevitable that people flatter, is someone deliberately released the signal? or pure information manipulation?
Regardless of the truth, this kind of information can be transmitted.It shows that Russia is seriously considering the security of its eastern border.
Especially after the Crimean crisis in 2014, NATO continued to strengthen its military presence in the Eastern Wing, Russia's pressure on the West grew, and the defense of the East became a part that cannot be overlooked.
And it can be seen from the report that Russian military planners are obviously somewhat anxious, they are concerned about both sides of the enemy.But the modern planning of war has long gone beyond traditional front-line thinking, and the range of strikes can spread across continents.So why is Russia especially alert to East Asia?
NATO’s Asia-Pacific approach
NATO, the Western military alliance that was formed during the Cold War to fight the Soviet Union, hasn’t been unstable over the years. I always wanted to go to Asia-Pacific.
In 2006, the United States proposed to establish a “global partnership” with Japan, South Korea and Australia.With the official launch of NATO’s 2030 Agenda by 2021, the organization has gradually stretched the corner toward Asia.
Since 2022, Japan and South Korea have become regular guests of the NATO summit, being included in the so-called global partnership system.
The director of the East Asian Institute of South Korea, Wu Shigong, said this very straightforwardly.NATO is to bring group confrontation and camp politics to Asia, which will not only increase regional security risks, but may also interrupt the process of economic integration, and everyone will not want to have a good day.
Russia, of course, also sees in the eye, at the end of 2024, Russian Defense Minister Berlusov openly stated that Russia must be prepared to deal with a possible military conflict with NATO in the next decade, and directly said that the challenge would be on the U.S. side.
More notably, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Asian factors were also increasingly embedded in the crisis. U.S. and South Korea accuse Russia of recruiting troops from North Korea and warming up Russian-Russian military cooperation, all leaving European warfare and Asian security silently linked.
It can be seen that NATO’s east-to-east and Japan-Korea approaches, forming a mutual stimulation and mutual verification relationship with Russia’s east-to-east project.
What would be the impact of Asia’s involvement in conflict?
If Russia and NATO are really on the path of military confrontation,East Asia is also unfortunately a battlefield, and the chain reaction that triggered was by no means digested by the regional performance.
Do not look at the military capabilities of Japan and South Korea, but in the face of horizontal escalation from Europe, early warning time is short, and the reaction window is small, it is really bad to say whether it can stabilize the situation.
Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev has said that if a war breaks out between NATO and Russia, it’s basically like the end of the world, and no winner or country can feel safe.
This is not a rumor, Comprehensive conflicts between the great powers, economic chains, energy crises, refugee flows, cyber attacks, and so on.Everyone can drink a cup worldwide.
In particular, China as a major regional power and a major global economy, even if it insists on neutrality, persuasion and promotion of negotiations, it will inevitably be affected. They may face restructuring.
However, from the perspective of China's response to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, stable stance, non-selection, and promoting dialogue remain the best diplomatic choice.
In reality, the likelihood of direct action between the great powers remains very low.In September 2025, the U.S. military dispatched officials to observe the Russian-Belarusian joint military exercise "West-2025", the first in three years.
Although the two sides shrugged their hands and expressed their friendliness, there was still a coexistence of probation and prevention behind them. Even in the highest level of confrontation, communication and observation were never completely interrupted. Economic cooperation is also ongoing.
Sino-Russian soybeans trade is constantly warming up, and the imports have increased by 9% compared to the eight months prior to 2025, although the scale is not large, but the potential is unanimous.
Whether Asia becomes a battlefield depends not on one or two secret documents, but on whether the great powers can maintain strategic reason.
After all, behind this so-called Russian secret plan is suspicion and anxiety in the game of great powers. Whether it’s the preemption mentioned in the document or NATO’s ongoing advance to the east, it’s an excessive reaction in the absence of a sense of security.
There is no need to be excessively nervous about every leak of intelligence, but it is not necessary to look at it as a joke.
There is confrontation and cooperation, there is testing and communication.Like between China and the US and Russia and Europe, on the other hand, whileining trade and diplomatic contacts in certain areas, this shows that no country is really willing to open the table completely, and no one can afford the cost.
Asia will not become a battlefield? Currently, the probability is very low. But the regional countries should be alert to the risk of being involved in group confrontation.
Remember, the people never expect a heroic game.As long as we continue to move in this direction, no matter how others show up, Asia can still keep its pace.
Primary sources
The US said that if China stopped supporting Russia, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict "will soon end," the Foreign Ministry responded.
“If NATO fights Russia, it will be the end of the world.”
Exposure if Russia fights with NATO, it will first attack Japan and South Korea.—2025-01-03 11:18· The Strait Network
202509/1710:48:57 Source: The Global Times — Foreign Media: The Pentagon confirmed that the U.S. sent military officials to watch joint military exercises in Morocco and Belarus, the first time the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out