Preliminary

26 countriesThe head of state is about to gather in Beijing to participate in the 93rd parade, the scene has not been seen before, only the Philippines has not received an invitation.

At that time, the Philippines was far from Taiwan. by 140 kmThe high-profile operation of the military base on the island of Badan, and even more to put out the fierce words: "Now is the time out ofIt is.¡±

From spectators to provocators, what is the small calculator behind this abnormal behavior in the Philippines?

Anxiety being excluded.

The invitation letter of the 93rd parade flew, and the leaders of several major ASEAN countries were well-known. Malaysia¡¢ VietnameseThese old friends are not absent.

Only the Philippines, this once a good neighbor with China, this time completely dried aside.

The Marcos government is not in the taste of that, looking at the leaders of other countries to go to Beijing. Military EquipmentShow, but can only be the audience in the TV. This feeling of being excluded, let the upper layers of the Philippines not sit.

Even more devastating is the fact that just a few weeks ago, the river reef incident, the Philippines could be said to have fallen asleep.

That broken one. The Madrid mountain.Trapped on the reef for more than three months, the water broke, and the Philippine military several times tried to steal supplies were stopped by the Chinese maritime police.

The last operation was even more embarrassing, China's direct deployment of large trailers was strictly controlled around the Yin'i Reef, and the Philippine supply vessels could only go back.

The house leaked at night, the Taiwan authorities at this time also came to fire. Lin Jiao Long, the foreign affairs head, dared to openly Visited byIsn¡¯t it clear that the Philippines is going to go down the water?

Several stimuli overlap, the Philippines finally couldn¡¯t breathe.Since you can¡¯t play in the South China Sea, try somewhere else.

So far away from Taiwan. by 140 kmThe island of Padan suddenly became a champagne. This location was chosen to be really dull enough, stuck on the Taiwan Sea route, like a sharp knife straight into China's sensitive nerves.

The philippines used to focus. by AnnieI want now. out of"The statement is that it means to have a positive relationship with China.This shift comes so suddenly that the anxiety behind it can be seen.

The U.S. took a step to make the Philippines willing to be "gun ashes"

The Philippines suddenly changed its face, saying that it was an independent decision that was fuzzy, and the shadow behind the United States was clear.

As soon as Marcos visited the White House, the game had already begun to be arranged, and the Americans thought it was the Philippines. geographical locationEspecially on the island of Bahrain.

American troops are now in the Philippines. 9 Military basesEven civilian airports are allowed to be militarized, and the United States wants to take the Philippines as its headquarters.

Even worse, the U.S. is deploying in the Philippines. The Hamas rocket gun.¡¢ A medium-range missileThe range coverage of these weapons systems is well known to everyone.

The United States.¡± Distributed struggleThe game is to fill the chess on the first island chain, forming multiple blocks against China.

The Philippines in this chess station, saying that the bad thing is a game. the United States gives a little sweetheads, the Philippines is backwardly cooperating with the show.

But China is not vegetarian on this side.In the face of the small actions of the Philippines, our response is classic.

Go ahead. The Shandong aircraft carrier.The appearance of the squadron in the Lushan Strait was not a simple passage.It was telling everyone that this sea area we said counted.

See also China Navy. Literary formJoint circumvention tactics, three large naval police ships cruised the Strait of Bus, forming a marine and aerial surveillance network.

That¡¯s in the legend.¡± The opposite salad.If the United States wants to do business between the South China Sea and the Taiwan Sea, then we will get you tired of running away.

Now the U.S. military had a shortage of ships and ships, and each time it increased its investment in one direction, it had to weaken its defense elsewhere.

More importantly, we are always strategically focused. Do not rush, the cruise, the exercise, everything is under control.

such with silent braking.The strategy is to make the Philippines every attempt is like a fist hit the cotton, power nowhere to do.

The bill in the Philippines is wrong, it costs a lot more than you thought.

The Philippines think that holding the American thigh can be hard in front of China, this calculator is really too naive.

First of all, China is the Philippines. The second largest trading partnerBilateral trade volume reached in 2023 89.1 billion dollarsIt accounts for 18.7% of the Philippines¡¯ foreign trade.

In contrast, the Philippines¡¯ trade dependency on the United States is only 12.3 percent.

This small Baltic country has been provoking China on the Taiwan issue, resulting in a drop in trade with China in 2022. 81.2%¡£

Now the path of the Philippines and Lithuania is the same, and the bitter effects of economic sanctions will sooner or later be tasted.

The total number of Chinese naval ships has exceeded 370 isAt the same time, the Philippine Navy does not have a few large surface vessels.

China has built islands in the South China Sea. The eternal reef¡¢ The Reef¡¢ The ReefThese once small reefs are now fully functional sea fortresses.

The radar system, air defense missiles and anti-ship missiles deployed on the island make up a complete defense system.

Historically, small nations have had countless examples of standing on the sidelines in the game of big powers, but the end is often not very good.

During the Cold War, many small countries in Latin America paid a terrible price for their wrong position.The Cuban missile crisis almost triggered a nuclear war, and those smaller nations ended up injured.

The Philippines today, like those small nations of that year, thinks that reliance on the big powers can get security, actually pushing themselves to the edge of danger.

America¡¯s commitment to the Philippines has always been conditional. The Mefi Joint Defence TreatyIt looks good, but will the United States really go to war with China for the Philippines at the crucial moment?

The answer is probably not even the United States itself dare to be sure. after all, the direct conflict between the two nuclear powers, the consequences nobody can bear.

The Philippines are now on the edge of the cliff, and one step at a time is a failure. economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, security threats, are these risks that the Philippines has really considered clearly?

Standing at the crossroads of the Philippines, this choice question has no standard answers

The Philippines is facing a multi-choice issue, with every option having its advantages and disadvantages.

Keeping up with the United States could get some military aid and security commitments in the short term, but the long-term cost is hindered by economic development and deteriorating regional relations.

Returning to the track of cooperation with China and the Philippines means giving up some unrealistic fantasies on the South China Sea issue, but in exchange for the opportunities for economic development and the dividends for regional stability.

The smartest way is to learn. Singapore is¡¢ Thailand isThe balance of these countries' diplomatic strategies.ining equal distance between China and the United States, neither completely turning to one side nor being hostile to either side.

President Marcos once said that the foreign policy of the Philippines is Be everyone¡¯s friend, not enemy.This statement is correct, but the current action is contrary to this principle.

In view of historical trends, Community of Human DestinyPhilosophy is becoming a new direction in international relations, and win-win cooperation and peaceful development are the themes of our time.

If the Philippines continues to roll in the bush of Cold War thinking, the Philippine people will ultimately be hurt.

Think of the 200,000 Filipinos working in Taiwan whose lives and jobs would be affected by the wrong decisions of the government.

China has adopted Dialogue consultationsThis attitude to resolve differences is sincere.The South China Sea issue is indeed complex, but it is perfectly possible to find a solution through peaceful means.

The signing of the Declaration of Conduct for all parties in the South China Sea is a good start, with all parties committed to resolving disputes through peaceful negotiations.

The current approach of the Philippines has clearly deviated from this trajectory, with the construction of military bases and the intervention of external forces to resolve the dispute, which is destined to be ineffective.

What the people of the Philippines need. economic developmentand Improvement of peopleInstead of an endless arms race and geopolitical conflict.

The shift from "Anne" to "Out" seems to be magnificent, but in fact it is a dangerous and irreversible path.

The Philippines should really stop and think about what such choices mean to the country and its people.

conclusion

The way small nations survive in the game of great powers is a "degree" of grasp.This time the Philippines jumped from "Anne" to "outside", the range is indeed a little big.

Look at the small nations in history that are rooted in the seam of the great powers, which do not seek to develop in balance?

In the face of complex international situations, what do you think is the best strategy for small countries?