US Secretary of Stateby RubioIn prayer for peace in Israel and the world, the Israeli airstrikes on at least four buildings in Gaza on the same day.

According to the Times of Israel, on September 14, local time, US Secretary of State Rubio arrived in Israel for a visit. On the same day, the Israeli Prime MinisterNetanyahuAccompanied by him, Rubio came to Jerusalem¡¯s Old City ¡°Wall of Cry¡± to pray for peace in Israel and elsewhere.

On the same day, Israeli airstrikes bombed at least four high-rise buildings in Gaza City north of the Gaza Strip, saying the buildings were used by Hamas.

Extended reading

Rubio's second visit to Israel "against the wind", and the United States was "led by the nose" again?

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio opened a two-day visit to Israel on September 14.

Rubio arrives in Israel and opens visit (data map)

This is his second visit after taking office, coinciding with the US-Israel relations in a delicate moment: U.S. President Trump spoke a little about Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's delay of the war in Gaza; the Israeli military is planning a comprehensive ground offensive on Gaza; just a few days ago, Israel also crossed the border air strikes on Hamas targets in Qatar, making Trump "unhappy".

However, many European countries have condemned Israel's "violation of sovereignty of other countries", and the United States has not followed, instead saying that "US-Israeli relations will not shake."

As the top diplomat of the United States, what kind of signal will Rubio send when he goes to Israel this time?

¡°Support¡± means enough.

Rubio's last visit was in February this year, focusing on post-war governance in Gaza and strengthening alliances.

As a member of the Republican traditional Conservative camp, Rubio has a long-standing close relationship with the American Jewish community and consistent support for Israel.

Half a year later, the U.S. State Department announced Rubio¡¯s visit on September 12, outlining three key tasks in advance: reiterating U.S. security commitments to Israel; highlighting two common goals: ensuring that Hamas no longer rules Gaza and pushing hostages back home smoothly; and communicating U.S. security priorities to Israel in the Middle East.

Niu Xinchun, Executive Dean of China Institute of Arab States, Ningxia UniversityIt is pointed out that Rubio's visit has been arranged for a long time, but it happened under the special background of increasing pressure from the international community and the United Nations General Assembly being unfavorable to Israel. Its main purpose was to demonstrate the support of the United States for Israel.

On September 12, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution supporting the New York Declaration on a peaceful settlement of the Palestinian issue and the implementation of the ¡°Two-State Plan¡± and will recognize the Palestinian State¡¯s agenda.

On September 22, the United Nations General Assembly will convene a high-level international conference on the Palestinian issue, when countries such as France, the United Kingdom, Canada, Belgium and Australia will recognize the Palestinian state.

United Nations General Assembly holds high-level international conference on the Palestinian issue (data map)

¡°In this case, the United States hopes to tell Israel through Rubio¡¯s visit that you¡¯re not alone internationally,¡± Boo said.

Four things about the clock.

Prior to Rubio¡¯s departure, the U.S. State Department outlined its main journeys in Israel: meeting with Netanyahu and other senior Israeli officials in Jerusalem, visiting the Western Wall, attending the closing ceremony of the archaeological site of David City, and meeting with the hostage families.

Niu Xinchun pointed out that during this visit, the United States and Israel will "check the table" around four major issues.

The first is Gaza City.

On the 9th, Israel airdropped leaflets demanding the complete evacuation of Gaza City residents; On the 12th, it was announced that the "Occupy Gaza City" military operation has entered the next stage. The outside world generally interprets that a new round of ground offensive is approaching.

Rubio plans to discuss the objectives and purposes of the operation with Israel.The United States is allegedly urging Israel to take a quick decision to open up space for a subsequent political settlement.

"The United States and Israel are consistent in the general direction, that is, demanding that Hamas completely surrender and release all hostages at one time." Niu Xinchun said, but there are obvious differences in Israel: 80% of the people support an immediate ceasefire, and even if they give up eliminating Hamas, they must rescue the hostages first; Most politicians also oppose the full occupation of Gaza City.

The Israeli chief of staff said that if it really occupied Gaza, it would have to stay for a long time and establish a military regime, which would permanently ¡°trapped¡± Israel in Gaza.

Second, Qatar was attacked.

On the 9th, Israeli airstrikes on Hamas targets in Doha, Qatar, did not inform the United States beforehand, frustrating Trump.

Rubio had met with Qatar's prime minister at the White House before he went on to meet, reiterating that Qatar is a "reliable ally" of the United States.The latter also went to New York for dinner with Trump.The United States has not yet publicly condemned Israel's attack on Qatar.

At the same time, Rubio also "put out the fire" and said, "What happened is what happened... We are not happy about this incident, but this incident will not change the nature of our relationship with Israel."

Smoke rolls after Doha bombings on September 9 (video)

¡°Israel and Qatar are both important allies of the United States in the Middle East, and now one side is fighting the other, the United States must always find a balance in the middle.¡±

The Gulf Arab nations rely on U.S. weapons and troops for security and dare not blame the U.S. easily, but their mistrust has grown quietly and they are either more actively seeking diplomatic and military diversification to enhance autonomy and independence.

For example, Niu Xinchun gave the "Arab States and Israel Air Defense Alliance" plan previously promoted by the United States may be affected, and Arab countries will distrust Israel even more.

Third, the international community recognizes the Palestinian state.

On the 12th, the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution with 142 votes in favor, 10 votes against and 12 abstentions, supporting the "two-state solution". On the 22nd, many countries will recognize Palestine's statehood status at the special session of the UN General Assembly.

¡°Many European countries, Canada, Australia, and others, supporting the establishment of a Palestinian state, did not rise from time to time,¡± Boo said, noting that they are both due to humanitarian pressure and concerns that the time window for the ¡°two-country plan¡± is disappearing.

However, "the pressure from the international community is not enough to make Israel change its strategic decisions." Niu Xinchun explained that, first, the Israeli government is the most right-wing government in its history, willing to take military adventures and expansionist actions, and has long been "immune" to external pressure; Second, the United States completely sided with Israel in the Gaza crisis, making it increasingly difficult to negotiate a settlement.

On the 11th, Netanyahu insisted at the celebration ceremony of new settlements in the West Bank that Israel would never agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Israel annexed the West Bank.

In order to ¡°punish¡± many countries preparing to recognize the Palestinian state, ¡°Israel is likely to advance the merger on the West Bank by September 22.¡±

Rubio has previously said that the United States will not oppose and prevent Israel's merger, but that this "disclaimer" hides risks.

¡°If Israel is really taking action, or causing a deadly blow to the Abrahamic Agreement,¡± Wu Jinping pointed out, at first, the UAE agreed to establish relations with Israel, provided that Israel suspended the reunification of the territory of the West Bank; if Israel breached the agreement, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and other countries would either re-evaluate or terminate contacts with Israel.

Use of Trump?

From Gaza to the West Bank, from Qatar to Doha to the United Nations, the United States seems to always be on the same front as Israel: little criticism, continued arms supply, and repeatedly vetoed draft resolutions aimed at pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza.

However, if you look at the relationship and the course of the situation in Gaza, Boo said that although Trump and Netanyahu agree on the overall stance, it is not without doubt that the recent attacks in Qatar have caused the U.S. to worry that Israel will harm its broader diplomatic, economic and security interests.

The gap between Israel and the ¡°big brother¡± of the United States is obvious in terms of power comparison, but it¡¯s confusing why it always ¡°takes America¡¯s nose¡±?

Niu Xinchun summarized this delicate relationship as an "allied edge strategy": Israel often pushes the United States to the edge of emotions and interests; However, it can "stop" in time, skillfully repair the relationship, control the contradiction within an acceptable range, and let the United States follow its own pace.

If we look further, it is not difficult to see that the US investment in the Middle East has not given more "control" over regional affairs.

Niu Xinchun pointed out that since taking office in January this year, the "biggest loser" of the Trump administration's Middle East policy may be the United States itself.

It appears to be strong and frequently launched, including attacking Yemen's Houthi armed forces, bombing targets within Iran, and is actually "used" by many parties such as Israel, Turkey, Arab countries, regional image, global reputation and long-term interests are repeatedly damaged.

Tracing back to the source, "The Trump administration has no comprehensive and long-term strategic goals for the Middle East, and its policies lack coherence." Niu Xinchun said that it wants to earn fame, make quick money and get benefits through short-term transactions, but as a result, it falls into passivity again and again in regional affairs.