On December 9, 2008 (November 12, 2008 in the lunar calendar), the global financial crisis affected China's real economy. December 09, 2008,"International Financing" ¡ñ Analysis of how the global financial crisis affects China's real economy. The US subprime mortgage crisis is gradually evolving into a "once-in-a-century" global financial crisis. What impact does this financial crisis have on China? There is a lucky view that China has survived this financial crisis. The shrinking foreign exchange reserves and the losses of financial institutions investing in U.S. subprime bonds have little or no impact on China's real economy. The author believes that this view is extremely wrong. Global economic integration has caused China's economy to suffer greatly in this crisis ¡ö Zhao Yong With the collapse of Wall Street investment bank giant Lehman Brothers, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is gradually evolving into a "once-in-a-century" global financial crisis, which will have a "significant and far-reaching" impact on the world economy. What impact does this financial crisis have on China? There is a lucky view that China has survived this financial crisis. The shrinking foreign exchange reserves and the losses of financial institutions investing in U.S. subprime bonds have little or no impact on China's real economy. The author believes that this view is extremely wrong. Global economic integration has caused China's economy to suffer greatly in this crisis. Import and export industry: In the global financial turmoil, China's import and export industry, which is at the forefront of the crisis, has been the most direct and serious impact. First, the crisis shifted from the financial level to the economic level, weakening U.S. consumption and directly affecting China's exports to the United States. U.S. consumer spending accounts for more than 70% of GDP. In 2007, domestic consumption in the United States was approximately US$10 trillion, while China consumer spending during the same period was approximately US$1 trillion. In addition to the decrease in the number of exports, due to the impact of the financial crisis, the default rate of overseas companies has also begun to rise, and the external credit environment of exporting companies has further deteriorated. Real estate industry: The economic downturn caused by the global financial crisis has caused China's real estate industry to face an unprecedented "cold winter." In the future, the transaction volume of the real estate industry will continue to decline, home buyers 'confidence will weaken and wait and see, the vacancy rate will continue to increase and the gross profit margin will decline, which will cause developers to encounter cash flow problems, and the risk of real estate non-performing loans in the banking industry will be greatly increased. Steel and non-ferrous metals industries: Dark clouds loom. As the world's largest steel producer and steel exporter, China's steel exports reached 43 million tons in 2006 and 62.64 million tons in 2007. From January to August 2008, due to the impact of the global financial crisis, steel exports reached 41.84 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.25 million tons or 7.2%. The decline in steel exports, coupled with the recession in the three major industries of real estate, shipbuilding, and automobiles, has caused a sharp drop in demand for steel in the market. At the same time, domestic steel inventories are rising. In addition to small and medium-sized steel mills, large steel mills such as Baosteel, Wuhan Iron and Steel, Tanggang, Angang, and Shagang have also begun to limit production in the name of taking turns scheduling and maintenance of production lines. In addition to the steel industry, non-ferrous metals industries such as copper and aluminum have also been deeply affected by the financial crisis. Spot and futures coexist in foreign non-ferrous metal markets. Major non-ferrous metal futures derivatives such as copper have outstanding attributes. The price trend is closely related to the financial situation. They are commodities closely related to the virtual economy and the real economy. The intensification of the international financial crisis has caused investors to lose confidence in almost all financial commodities and withdraw from the futures market, directly leading to a decline in the prices of derivative financial commodities, including non-ferrous metal futures. China is the world's largest producer and consumer of non-ferrous metals. The collapse in non-ferrous metals prices will not only have an important impact on the production and operation of China's non-ferrous metals industry, but will also affect related industries, which in turn has an impact on the operation of the entire national economy. Other industries: Will other industries be affected by the financial crisis? The author's answer is yes. "A fire at the city gate affects the fish in the pool." The global financial crisis will spread to other industries through the following three channels. First, residents 'consumption demand has been greatly reduced. On the one hand, the stock market crash caused by the financial crisis has shrunk investors 'assets and weakened the actual purchasing power of some residents. The "negative effect" of the stock market adjustment will appear as never before. On the other hand, the many uncertainties and potential risks in the financial crisis have caused people to generally increase their fear of risks and are not very optimistic about future employment and income expectations. When income expectations are not good, residents will compress some non-essential consumption. Second, affected by the overall macroeconomic environment, enterprises generally lack confidence in investment, and the phenomenon of "prudent lending" will occur, resulting in a decline in investment demand. Third, the global financial system is currently in turmoil, and banks 'non-performing assets have risen sharply. In order to avoid risks, they will raise credit standards, making corporate loans and personal consumer credit more difficult. These will reduce total social demand and deteriorate the macroeconomic environment, thus having an impact on various industries.