On July 9, 2017 (June 16, 2017 in the lunar calendar), Iraq fully liberated IS and occupied Mosul. A major international highlight in July 2017 was the recovery of Mosul, the Islamic State's stronghold in Iraq, by Iraq government forces. Does this mean that the Islamic State, an extremist organization that has been entrenched in Iraq and Syria for three years, has come to an end? What is the origin of the Islamic State and how much is it related to the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime? There are a huge number of IS terrorists. Where are they now? What will they do after the government forces recover their lost territory? The guest in this program is Iraq's Ambassador to China Belwali. Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, with a population of approximately 1.5 million, is the political center of the Kurdish autonomous region and has the largest oil field and largest oil refining facility in northern Iraq. On June 10, 2014, the extremist organization "Islamic State" occupied Mosul and declared the "founding of the country" at the Nuri Grand Mosque on July 4 of the same year. Millions of Mosul residents are plagued by poverty every day. Covered by fear. On July 10, 2017, the "Islamic State" was defeated and Mosul ushered in full liberation. Iraq Prime Minister Abadi said that this marked the end of the "Islamic State." On July 9, 2017, during this uneventful weekend, major media sent out newsletters: Iraq Prime Minister and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Haider Abadi announced that the government forces had won the Battle of Mosul. Mosul is the second largest city in Iraq and the first major city occupied by the extremist group Islamic State. Abadi's news means that with the complete defeat in Mosul, only the desert and rural areas of western Iraq remain under the control of the extremist organization "Islamic State" in Iraq. "Mosul" means "transportation destination" in Arabic and is also known as "paradise","oasis" and "pearl of the north". Historically, Mosul has indeed been an important blending place of various civilizations. After the rise of Islamic civilization, Mosul was known as a transportation center that "connects the east and west". There are countless historical monuments in Mosul. For example, the Da Nuri Mosque, which was declared "statehood" by the leader of the extremist organization "Islamic State" in 2014, was built by the Zanji Dynasty, which controlled what is now Iraq and northern Syria in the 12th century. Saladin, who was a subject of the Zanji Dynasty, later successfully recovered the Holy City of Jerusalem from the Crusaders. Iraq people celebrate the liberation of Mosul. Therefore, for the Islamic extremist organization "Islamic State", which seeks legitimacy from Islamic history, Mosul is not only a large city in northern Iraq, but also an important source of its establishment of "Islamic legitimacy." Therefore, the recovery of Mosul means that the legitimacy of the "Islamic State" extremist organization has been seriously challenged. With the continuous advancement of Iraq government forces and various Iraq militiamen that support the government on the battlefield, it seems that the extremist organization "Islamic State" will be completely eliminated in Iraq within a few days, but this does not mean that the future will be "bright", and the real challenge in Iraq seems to have just begun. Where does the money for reconstruction come from? Behind the celebrations of military victory, Iraq's top priority is "post-war reconstruction." According to official data from Iraq, in the past three years of war, the extremist organization "Islamic State" has caused direct economic losses to Iraq reaching US$36 billion. These losses mainly include losses caused by attacks by the "Islamic State" and other Islamic extremist organizations on infrastructure and other government facilities in Iraq over the past years. In addition to the direct loss of US$36 billion, Iraq Planning Minister Salman Al Zummaili said in a recent interview with the media that the reconstruction of Iraq requires a total of approximately US$100 billion, which includes not only the repair of infrastructure damaged by the war, but also refugee resettlement, wounded treatment, urban reconstruction and development. Whether the bombed Greater Nuri Mosque cost US$36 billion or US$100 billion, it is obviously impossible for Iraq, which is currently facing a huge fiscal deficit, to raise it on its own. Against the backdrop of the current sluggish world economic recovery and long-term decline in international oil prices, Iraq's financial situation has been poor. Therefore, Iraq needs international efforts to help raise this huge amount of money. Traditionally, Iraq's "big financial owners" are overseas countries, especially Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar. However, in the current context of serious divisions within the Gulf countries, due to sectarian background and political reality, Iraq has to express its support for Iran's "ambiguous" Qatar in the Gulf dispute. Whether it is the general Shiite background of Iraq's leadership (such as the "National Alliance for Iraq") or Iran's de facto influence in Iraq (such as former Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki once said that in Iraq, the influence of the Iranian ambassador is even higher than that of the US president). Against this background, it may be difficult for Iraq to raise funds from traditional Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for post-war reconstruction through international conferences. To rebuild the devastated city of Mosul, funding comes first. If enough funds cannot be raised, it may mean a hard-won victory in the fight against the extremist organization "Islamic State" and may well be overwhelmed by the turbulent domestic situation. After all, you must know that at the beginning of last year, Iraq had just experienced a fierce popular movement calling for the Abadi government to step down. In addition to the long-term security situation, the reasons for public dissatisfaction included the rising cost of living and serious political corruption. The root cause of these is the stagnation of Iraqi social development. This situation is not only due to the influence of the extremist organization "Islamic State", but also due to the special political and social divisions in Iraq after the war in 2003. The problem of reconstruction in Iraq is more closely related to the uneven domestic social development in Iraq since 2003. For example, in Anbar Province, the western Sunni province where the extremist organization "Islamic State" has emerged in Iraq, the poverty rate among the people has reached 41%, which is much higher than the 20% of the Shiites in the south and the 15% of the Kurds in the north. Unequal economic development has actually become an important condition for the "Islamic State" to rise in Anbar Province and use it as the "base camp" of Iraq. Therefore, if the post-war economic reconstruction of Iraq cannot proceed smoothly, it is likely to ignite the dissatisfaction of the Iraq people with the government, and a new round of political and social unrest is probably inevitable. In addition to the lack of funds for political reconstruction in Iraq, another very sensitive issue at the moment is the future status of the Shiite militia armed "People's Mobilization Army." As an armed force mainly composed of Shiites, the "People's Mobilization Army" was established in 2014. At that time, the extremist organization "Islamic State" was raging in Iraq, and the Iraq government forces responsible for Iraq's internal security were weak and instructed the extremist organization "Islamic State" militants to expand their influence into traditional Shiite provinces in eastern Iraq. Sunnis, Shiites. Do you see the deepening estrangement between the two factions? Under this circumstance, Sistani, an important spiritual leader of Shiites in Iraq, issued a religious decree (fatwa) calling on Shiite militants to form an army to fight against the extremist organization "Islamic State." In the following years, the "People's Mobilization Army" played a huge role in Iraq's military operations against the extremist organization "Islamic State". It not only successfully prevented the extremist organization from attacking central and eastern Iraq, but also helped government forces launch counterattack and expanded their combat scope to the north and west, pointing directly at the Iraq-Syria border. However, as the area of control expanded, the "People's Mobilization Army" became a concern for Sunnis in Iraq, the central government and the Kurdish autonomous region in the north. As a militia, the "People's Mobilization Army" is largely independent of the Iraq government armed forces. On the one hand, its organizational basis is based on the "legitimacy" granted by Sistani through religious decrees, but on the other hand, its organizational structure is rooted in Iran's influence. In particular, the leaders of various branches of the "People's Mobilization Army" almost all have a study and living background in Iran, and their logistical supplies, training and command have received help from Iran. The "Quds Brigade" of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps even directly participated in the war in the name of the "People's Mobilization Army." "It is easy to ask God, but it is difficult to send God away." How to handle relations with this force in the future will greatly affect political stability within Iraq. As the extremist organization "Islamic State" fell into decline in Iraq, the dissolution of the militia "People's Mobilization Army" seemed to be "logical." However, judging from a series of recent developments, it seems that the "People's Mobilization Army" will form a military group independent of the Iraq government's armed forces. Some senior members of the People's Mobilization Army, such as its spokesman Hashim Al Mousavi, recently stated that factions under the People's Mobilization Army have established the "Golan Liberation Brigade"(named after the Golan Heights, a disputed area of Syria and Israel), and said that if Turkey refuses to withdraw its troops in northern Mosul, after the extremist organization "Islamic State" is defeated, the "People's Mobilization Army" will directly attack the Turkish army and "expel" it. In June, Sheikh Akram Al Kaebi, Secretary-General of the People's Mobilization Army, said that the "People's Mobilization Army" could not become a "plaything" of the Iraq government and "will not disband just as soon as it says." Although many analyses believe that with the prestige of Shiites in Iraq, Sistani, the spiritual leader of Shiites in Iraq, if Sistani issues an order calling for the dissolution of the "People's Mobilization Army", the "People's Mobilization Army" will not dare to disobey. But in fact, within the People's Mobilization Army, some senior commanders even directly obey Iran's Supreme Spiritual Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while some military factions under the People's Mobilization Army sent their own armed personnel into Syria to help the Syria government forces fight against the Syria rebels. These actions were not authorized by Sistani. In addition, if you consider that Sistani is old and his long-term relationship with Iran has not been completely harmonious, then the "People's Mobilization Army" is likely to become the "Lebanon Hezbollah" of Iraq in the future. The threat of the "independence" of the People's Mobilization Army is that it may impact the already fragile political and social balance of Iraq. The reason why the current Iraq government forces, Shiite militias, Kurdish militia and Sunni armed forces can maintain relative "harmony" lies in the common "enemy" of the extremist organization "Islamic State." With the decline of the extremist organization "Islamic State", many contradictions that originally separated the domestic political balance of Iraq will emerge again. For example, within the top echelons of Iraq, Abadi still faces challenges from other Shiite political forces. Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki also chanted slogans such as "Raqqa (Syria), we are coming; Aleppo (Syria), we are coming; Yemen, we are coming" in an attempt to "fish in troubled waters" in the future situation in Iraq; If the "People's Mobilization Army" continues to exist and exert influence, it will become an armed force independent of the Iraq government forces, which will inevitably stimulate the Sunnis in Iraq in the west, increase Sunnis 'distrust of Shiites, and cause greater divisions in Iraq society. Iraq Kurds divided? Another more sensitive and thorny issue is the independence of Kurds in northern Iraq. Since the establishment of the Iraq state, the relationship between the Kurds and the central government of Iraq has been delicate. After the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's government in 2003, Kurdish independence tendencies began to flourish. Not only were the Kurds able to establish a de facto local order in the north in the 1990s, but they also legalized it after 2003, even achieving their goals of regional autonomy through the central government. In 2014, the Islamic State organization captured Mosul in northern Iraq, deepening the domestic political rift in Iraq. The autonomy of the northern Kurdish autonomous region has increased with the continuous retreat of government forces. Although before 2014, the central government of Iraq had been boycotted by the Kurdish Autonomous Region on many issues, and conflicts between the two sides occurred frequently, such as crude oil revenue, northern crude oil exports to Turkey, and the allocation of seats in the Iraq parliament, these contradictions were still in a state of dispute at that time, and the two sides did not completely break. With the expansion of the Islamic State organization, the geographical direct connection between the central government and the Kurdish autonomous region has been cut off, and the Kurds have an increasing say on the issues of "autonomy" and "independence." The central government of Iraq has gradually lost control over the Kurdish autonomous region. At an academic conference held in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish autonomous region, in early 2017, many scholars close to the leader of the autonomous region, Barzani, publicly stated that the Kurdish autonomous government would seek independence at the right time. In fact, the Kurds began preparations for independence early, such as establishing an international airport in Erbil as an international channel independent of Baghdad; vigorously promoting Kurdish in universities, governments and media as the official language of the Kurdish Autonomous Region; The flag of the Kurdish Autonomous Region can be seen everywhere, but the Iraq flag is hard to find there. In February this year, during the visit of Kurdish Autonomous Region leader Barzani to Turkey, Turkish officials used the Kurdish flag instead of the Iraq flag for the first time to receive visiting Barzani. The reception standard was almost equivalent to that of a "foreign head of state"; In March, Barzani directly expressed to United Nations Secretary-General Guterres his desire to decide whether Kurds would be independent through a "referendum", showing the concretization of Kurdish independence vision. Barzani visits TurkeyOn July 9, 2017 (June 16, 2017 in the lunar calendar), Iraq fully liberated IS and occupied Mosul. A major international highlight in July 2017 was the recovery of Mosul, the Islamic State's stronghold in Iraq, by Iraq government forces. Does this mean that the Islamic State, an extremist organization that has been entrenched in Iraq and Syria for three years, has come to an end? What is the origin of the Islamic State and how much is it related to the fall of Saddam Hussein's regime? There are a huge number of IS terrorists. Where are they now? What will they do after the government forces recover their lost territory? The guest in this program is Iraq's Ambassador to China Belwali. Mosul, the second largest city in Iraq, with a population of approximately 1.5 million, is the political center of the Kurdish autonomous region and has the largest oil field and largest oil refining facility in northern Iraq. On June 10, 2014, the extremist organization "Islamic State" occupied Mosul and declared the "founding of the country" at the Nuri Grand Mosque on July 4 of the same year. Millions of Mosul residents are plagued by poverty every day. Covered by fear. On July 10, 2017, the "Islamic State" was defeated and Mosul ushered in full liberation. Iraq Prime Minister Abadi said that this marked the end of the "Islamic State." On July 9, 2017, during this uneventful weekend, major media sent out newsletters: Iraq Prime Minister and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Haider Abadi announced that the government forces had won the Battle of Mosul. Mosul is the second largest city in Iraq and the first major city occupied by the extremist group Islamic State. Abadi's news means that with the complete defeat in Mosul, only the desert and rural areas of western Iraq remain under the control of the extremist organization "Islamic State" in Iraq. "Mosul" means "transportation destination" in Arabic and is also known as "paradise","oasis" and "pearl of the north". Historically, Mosul has indeed been an important blending place of various civilizations. After the rise of Islamic civilization, Mosul was known as a transportation center that "connects the east and west". There are countless historical monuments in Mosul. For example, the Da Nuri Mosque, which was declared "statehood" by the leader of the extremist organization "Islamic State" in 2014, was built by the Zanji Dynasty, which controlled what is now Iraq and northern Syria in the 12th century. Saladin, who was a subject of the Zanji Dynasty, later successfully recovered the Holy City of Jerusalem from the Crusaders. Iraq people celebrate the liberation of Mosul. Therefore, for the Islamic extremist organization "Islamic State", which seeks legitimacy from Islamic history, Mosul is not only a large city in northern Iraq, but also an important source of its establishment of "Islamic legitimacy." Therefore, the recovery of Mosul means that the legitimacy of the "Islamic State" extremist organization has been seriously challenged. With the continuous advancement of Iraq government forces and various Iraq militiamen that support the government on the battlefield, it seems that the extremist organization "Islamic State" will be completely eliminated in Iraq within a few days, but this does not mean that the future will be "bright", and the real challenge in Iraq seems to have just begun. Where does the money for reconstruction come from? Behind the celebrations of military victory, Iraq's top priority is "post-war reconstruction." According to official data from Iraq, in the past three years of war, the extremist organization "Islamic State" has caused direct economic losses to Iraq reaching US$36 billion. These losses mainly include losses caused by attacks by the "Islamic State" and other Islamic extremist organizations on infrastructure and other government facilities in Iraq over the past years. In addition to the direct loss of US$36 billion, Iraq Planning Minister Salman Al Zummaili said in a recent interview with the media that the reconstruction of Iraq requires a total of approximately US$100 billion, which includes not only the repair of infrastructure damaged by the war, but also refugee resettlement, wounded treatment, urban reconstruction and development. Whether the bombed Greater Nuri Mosque cost US$36 billion or US$100 billion, it is obviously impossible for Iraq, which is currently facing a huge fiscal deficit, to raise it on its own. Against the backdrop of the current sluggish world economic recovery and long-term decline in international oil prices, Iraq's financial situation has been poor. Therefore, Iraq needs international efforts to help raise this huge amount of money. Traditionally, Iraq's "big financial owners" are overseas countries, especially Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar. However, in the current context of serious divisions within the Gulf countries, due to sectarian background and political reality, Iraq has to express its support for Iran's "ambiguous" Qatar in the Gulf dispute. Whether it is the general Shiite background of Iraq's leadership (such as the "National Alliance for Iraq") or Iran's de facto influence in Iraq (such as former Iraq Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki once said that in Iraq, the influence of the Iranian ambassador is even higher than that of the US president). Against this background, it may be difficult for Iraq to raise funds from traditional Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait for post-war reconstruction through international conferences. To rebuild the devastated city of Mosul, funding comes first. If enough funds cannot be raised, it may mean a hard-won victory in the fight against the extremist organization "Islamic State" and may well be overwhelmed by the turbulent domestic situation. After all, you must know that at the beginning of last year, Iraq had just experienced a fierce popular movement calling for the Abadi government to step down. In addition to the long-term security situation, the reasons for public dissatisfaction included the rising cost of living and serious political corruption. The root cause of these is the stagnation of Iraqi social development. This situation is not only due to the influence of the extremist organization "Islamic State", but also due to the special political and social divisions in Iraq after the war in 2003. The problem of reconstruction in Iraq is more closely related to the uneven domestic social development in Iraq since 2003. For example, in Anbar Province, the western Sunni province where the extremist organization "Islamic State" has emerged in Iraq, the poverty rate among the people has reached 41%, which is much higher than the 20% of the Shiites in the south and the 15% of the Kurds in the north. Unequal economic development has actually become an important condition for the "Islamic State" to rise in Anbar Province and use it as the "base camp" of Iraq. Therefore, if the post-war economic reconstruction of Iraq cannot proceed smoothly, it is likely to ignite the dissatisfaction of the Iraq people with the government, and a new round of political and social unrest is probably inevitable. In addition to the lack of funds for political reconstruction in Iraq, another very sensitive issue at the moment is the future status of the Shiite militia armed "People's Mobilization Army." As an armed force mainly composed of Shiites, the "People's Mobilization Army" was established in 2014. At that time, the extremist organization "Islamic State" was raging in Iraq, and the Iraq government forces responsible for Iraq's internal security were weak and instructed the extremist organization "Islamic State" militants to expand their influence into traditional Shiite provinces in eastern Iraq. Sunnis, Shiites. Do you see the deepening estrangement between the two factions? Under this circumstance, Sistani, an important spiritual leader of Shiites in Iraq, issued a religious decree (fatwa) calling on Shiite militants to form an army to fight against the extremist organization "Islamic State." In the following years, the "People's Mobilization Army" played a huge role in Iraq's military operations against the extremist organization "Islamic State". It not only successfully prevented the extremist organization from attacking central and eastern Iraq, but also helped government forces launch counterattack and expanded their combat scope to the north and west, pointing directly at the Iraq-Syria border. However, as the area of control expanded, the "People's Mobilization Army" became a concern for Sunnis in Iraq, the central government and the Kurdish autonomous region in the north. As a militia, the "People's Mobilization Army" is largely independent of the Iraq government armed forces. On the one hand, its organizational basis is based on the "legitimacy" granted by Sistani through religious decrees, but on the other hand, its organizational structure is rooted in Iran's influence. In particular, the leaders of various branches of the "People's Mobilization Army" almost all have a study and living background in Iran, and their logistical supplies, training and command have received help from Iran. The "Quds Brigade" of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps even directly participated in the war in the name of the "People's Mobilization Army." "It is easy to ask God, but it is difficult to send God away." How to handle relations with this force in the future will greatly affect political stability within Iraq. As the extremist organization "Islamic State" fell into decline in Iraq, the dissolution of the militia "People's Mobilization Army" seemed to be "logical." However, judging from a series of recent developments, it seems that the "People's Mobilization Army" will form a military group independent of the Iraq government's armed forces. Some senior members of the People's Mobilization Army, such as its spokesman Hashim Al Mousavi, recently stated that factions under the People's Mobilization Army have established the "Golan Liberation Brigade"(named after the Golan Heights, a disputed area of Syria and Israel), and said that if Turkey refuses to withdraw its troops in northern Mosul, after the extremist organization "Islamic State" is defeated, the "People's Mobilization Army" will directly attack the Turkish army and "expel" it. In June, Sheikh Akram Al Kaebi, Secretary-General of the People's Mobilization Army, said that the "People's Mobilization Army" could not become a "plaything" of the Iraq government and "will not disband just as soon as it says." Although many analyses believe that with the prestige of Shiites in Iraq, Sistani, the spiritual leader of Shiites in Iraq, if Sistani issues an order calling for the dissolution of the "People's Mobilization Army", the "People's Mobilization Army" will not dare to disobey. But in fact, within the People's Mobilization Army, some senior commanders even directly obey Iran's Supreme Spiritual Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, while some military factions under the People's Mobilization Army sent their own armed personnel into Syria to help the Syria government forces fight against the Syria rebels. These actions were not authorized by Sistani. In addition, if you consider that Sistani is old and his long-term relationship with Iran has not been completely harmonious, then the "People's Mobilization Army" is likely to become the "Lebanon Hezbollah" of Iraq in the future. The threat of the "independence" of the People's Mobilization Army is that it may impact the already fragile political and social balance of Iraq. The reason why the current Iraq government forces, Shiite militias, Kurdish militia and Sunni armed forces can maintain relative "harmony" lies in the common "enemy" of the extremist organization "Islamic State." With the decline of the extremist organization "Islamic State", many contradictions that originally separated the domestic political balance of Iraq will emerge again. For example, within the top echelons of Iraq, Abadi still faces challenges from other Shiite political forces. Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki also chanted slogans such as "Raqqa (Syria), we are coming; Aleppo (Syria), we are coming; Yemen, we are coming" in an attempt to "fish in troubled waters" in the future situation in Iraq; If the "People's Mobilization Army" continues to exist and exert influence, it will become an armed force independent of the Iraq government forces, which will inevitably stimulate the Sunnis in Iraq in the west, increase Sunnis 'distrust of Shiites, and cause greater divisions in Iraq society. Iraq Kurds divided? Another more sensitive and thorny issue is the independence of Kurds in northern Iraq. Since the establishment of the Iraq state, the relationship between the Kurds and the central government of Iraq has been delicate. After the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's government in 2003, Kurdish independence tendencies began to flourish. Not only were the Kurds able to establish a de facto local order in the north in the 1990s, but they also legalized it after 2003, even achieving their goals of regional autonomy through the central government. In 2014, the Islamic State organization captured Mosul in northern Iraq, deepening the domestic political rift in Iraq. The autonomy of the northern Kurdish autonomous region has increased with the continuous retreat of government forces. Although before 2014, the central government of Iraq had been boycotted by the Kurdish Autonomous Region on many issues, and conflicts between the two sides occurred frequently, such as crude oil revenue, northern crude oil exports to Turkey, and the allocation of seats in the Iraq parliament, these contradictions were still in a state of dispute at that time, and the two sides did not completely break. With the expansion of the Islamic State organization, the geographical direct connection between the central government and the Kurdish autonomous region has been cut off, and the Kurds have an increasing say on the issues of "autonomy" and "independence." The central government of Iraq has gradually lost control over the Kurdish autonomous region. At an academic conference held in Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish autonomous region, in early 2017, many scholars close to the leader of the autonomous region, Barzani, publicly stated that the Kurdish autonomous government would seek independence at the right time. In fact, the Kurds began preparations for independence early, such as establishing an international airport in Erbil as an international channel independent of Baghdad; vigorously promoting Kurdish in universities, governments and media as the official language of the Kurdish Autonomous Region; The flag of the Kurdish Autonomous Region can be seen everywhere, but the Iraq flag is hard to find there. In February this year, during the visit of Kurdish Autonomous Region leader Barzani to Turkey, Turkish officials used the Kurdish flag instead of the Iraq flag for the first time to receive visiting Barzani. The reception standard was almost equivalent to that of a "foreign head of state"; In March, Barzani directly expressed to United Nations Secretary-General Guterres his desire to decide whether Kurds would be independent through a "referendum", showing the concretization of Kurdish independence vision. Barzani visits Turkey