On July 20, at the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party, Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party President Shigeru Ishiba posted a decal for the elected members. Photo/Xinhua News Agency

According to Japan's Kyodo News Agency on the 2nd, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said in his resignation call that he "has no intention of staying in office" and will clarify his next move in due course.

Extended reading

Is gambling imminent? Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba faces "recall crisis" in September

Heading into September, the political atmosphere in Japan is likely to be hotter than the weather.

After the Liberal Democratic Party suffered an unprecedented defeat in the Senate election in late July, the voice of accountability within the Liberal Democratic Party of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has not stopped.

The LDP leadership is understood to be considering a decision in early September on whether to start a new round of presidential elections early. Some details were gradually clarified at a meeting of the LDP's internal presidential election committee on August 28. According to the so-called "recall" rules within the LDP, whether to hold an early presidential election requires the support of more than half of the LDP members (295) and representatives of local organizations (47).

Although there are rules within the LDP to change the date of the election of the president, it is worth noting that there has never been a precedent for this before. And if nothing else, Shigeru Ishiba's term as prime minister ends in 2027.

On the one hand, the voice of "forcing the palace" within the Liberal Democratic Party is getting louder and louder, and on the other hand, Shigeru Ishiba's support rating is rising steadily. The latest Japanese media survey results from August 29 to 31 showed that the support rate of Shigeru Ishiba's cabinet was 42%, an increase of 10 percentage points from the last survey in July, and recovered to about 40% for the first time since February (40%). 53%"do not support".

The picture shows the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan (data map)

Can the palace-forcing camp get 172 votes?

In the upper house election in July this year, the ruling coalition formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party suffered a crushing defeat. Coupled with the result of the crushing defeat in the lower house election last October, the ruling coalition lost its majority in both houses of the Senate and the House of Representatives for the first time, breaking the political majority it has held since the establishment of the Liberal Democratic Party in 1955.

According to the rules of the Liberal Democratic Party, the early election of the president requires the support of more than half of the 295 members of parliament and the representatives of the 47 provincial branch federations, that is, 172 votes in favor. However, since there is no precedent for early election of the president, the Liberal Democratic Party is discussing details such as confirming the intention of lawmakers and representatives.

At present, one clear detail is that a secret ballot will be used this time. In response, Ichiro Aisawa, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's Presidential Election Committee, explained that the reason for adopting real-name voting was to restore people's trust in the Liberal Democratic Party. Analysts believe that the decision to vote in real name may affect those members of the Liberal Democratic Party who are still hesitant about whether to remove Shigeru Ishiba.

Some middle-ranking members of the Liberal Democratic Party who oppose Ishiba's stay in office have publicly told the media that they will take collective action to obtain a "relative majority" of 172 votes. "This time we have to change people, and the party will be dragged down by him if this goes on." This is the firm position of the "Down Ishiba" camp. It is reported that the former Abe-affiliated lawmakers who caused the party to be depressed due to the "political black gold" incident were the main force in forcing Ishiba to step down.

However, in the view of Shigeru Ishiba's supporters, the support rating of Shigeru Ishiba and the cabinet has been rising more than a month after the Senate election."This is a reality that cannot be ignored," and "blindly shifting the responsibility for failure onto Shigeru Ishiba is not a wise decision."

Bai Niaohong, a professor at the graduate school of Hosei University, told the media: "The increase in support rates is only an appearance. What we really need to pay attention to is the 50% of swing voters. In the current situation (with the minority ruling party), it is impossible for any bill to pass. Whether the presidential election is advanced or not will likely determine the fate of the government."

The election analysis report is coming soon

The LDP is expected to finalise its findings on July's election results this week, which are widely seen as providing the party with a clear picture of who was responsible for the loss.

If senior party members around Mr. Ishiba resign, it could weaken his standing in the party, but it could also be a way of publicly assuming responsibility, allowing Mr. Ishiba to remain prime minister.

But as Ishiba's popularity rises and his determination to stay in office, the momentum for a change of leadership may be weakened. The Liberal Democratic Party lost its majority in the Senate three times before, all of which led to the resignation of the then-prime minister. Now, the formation of a cabinet without a majority in both houses may make Shi Damao's opponents reluctant to rashly promote the party leader battle at this time.

Previous polls by Japanese media showed that Shigeru Ishiba was still the first choice for the next prime minister in the eyes of respondents. Of course, there are also polls showing that about a quarter of respondents chose the hard-line conservative Takaichi Sanae as the next leader of the Liberal Democratic Party. About a fifth supported Shinjiro Koizumi, the agriculture minister. Shigeru Ishiba ranked third with 13.1% support.

According to polls, Shigeru Ishiba remains the first choice for the next prime minister in the eyes of respondents (data map)

At the same time, Shigeru Ishiba has repeatedly emphasized his determination to stay in office on different occasions, believing that the ongoing challenges Japan is currently facing, such as the tense regional security environment and trade negotiations with the United States, are important reasons to avoid a political vacuum.

More than a month after the election, Shigeru Ishiba has made frequent appearances on the international stage. Previously, he met with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and promised to deepen cooperation on a range of common issues, including the peninsula issue and the response to an aging society. On August 29, he met with visiting Indian Prime Minister Modi.

Japanese media believe that the Liberal Democratic Party is currently in a contradiction. If Ishiba Shigeru is removed by using the party mechanism this time, it means that it will provide an example for the appointment and removal of future presidents, and any president who makes party members dissatisfied may be removed. In addition, in the case that Ishiba Shigeru still intends to stay as president, the open discussion of the early election issue within the Liberal Democratic Party will on the one hand make the current president feel scruples and make decisions that are not conducive to the general direction; on the other hand, it will also exacerbate the internal struggle of the Liberal Democratic Party and even lead to the division of the Liberal Democratic Party.