Wen, Observer Network, Liu Chenghui

After months of negotiations and concessions, Mexican President Simbo finds himself caught up in a cycle of pressure from the White House.

The Mexican president, known as the "Trump interpreter", has repeatedly defused tense negotiations with Trump. Even Trump called out "I like her a lot" and repeatedly extended the buffer period for tariffs on Mexico.

But this "honeymoon period" seems to be coming to an end.

Trump pushed his luck, but Sinbaum couldn't take it anymore.

In a long article published on August 30, the New York Times revealed the difficulties Symphony faced.

Deploying tens of thousands of soldiers to the U.S. -Mexico border; accusing Mexican banks of money laundering; threatening to increase tariffs; revoking the visas of some Mexican politicians; listing some Mexican drug cartels as terrorist organizations... In the past few months, Trump has stepped up his high-pressure offensive against Mexico, using multiple means to force Sinbaum to give in, leaving her on the defensive, with little room for maneuver.

On August 29, Mexican President Shinbaum said she would seek a U.S.-Mexico deal while ensuring respect for Mexico's sovereignty and the principle of non-interference in its territory

In every confrontation with Trump, Shenbaum gritted his teeth and emphasized that there is an insurmountable red line, that is, the violation of Mexico's sovereignty, especially unilateral military action.

However, news broke this month that Trump secretly signed an executive order allowing the use of military force to fight Latin American drug cartels classified as "foreign terrorist organizations."

"There will be no intrusion," Mr. Sheenbaum said at the time, responding to concerns. "That has been ruled out."

Four days later, her government further complied with additional U.S. demands and handed over 26 people accused of being members of a senior drug cartel to the United States. This is the second such transfer this year, with a total of 55 people, none of whom are subject to normal extradition procedures.

Two days later, Trump told reporters that because of him, Mexico finally respected the United States again. He said triumphantly: "Mexico will do as we say."

According to four people close to the Mexican government, Simbaum has felt very upset.She and the cabinet felt that they had spent a lot of energy on meeting Washington¡¯s demands, but it never seemed enough.

Since Sheinbaum took office nine months ago, the Mexican government has stepped up its crackdown on powerful drug cartels, arresting 30,000 people accused of committing "major crimes." By contrast, her predecessor only arrested 12,300 people in six years.

During her tenure, murders declined, drug seizures increased, and illegal border crossings all but stagnated.

However, the United States still complains that the Mexican government has shown dysfunction and hesitation in fighting the drug issue.

For example, in July this year, a man man managed to escape under Mexican surveillance while waiting for extradition to the United States in Mexico.

The White House then again called on Mexico to step up its struggle, and Trump threatened to impose a new 30% tariff on Mexican imports.

Simboom once again sought a tariff extension through negotiations.

After the two presidents spoke, Trump suspended planned tariffs for 90 days, saying the two sides would seek a trade agreement. Trump wrote on social media that the conversation was "very successful because we got to know each other more and more."

But tensions rose again last week when the US announced that the US and Mexican governments would undertake "bold bilateral action" against drug cartels.

Simbaum then replied that he was unaware of this.

She said the U.S. has only trained four Mexican drug detectives, and she has criticized the U.S. for exaggerating its cooperation in several press conferences.

A source close to Sinbaum's administration said the two countries had actually agreed on a joint operation and intelligence-sharing plan, while stipulating that the operation must respect Mexican sovereignty. Sinbaum plans to meet with visiting U.S. Secretary of State Rubio in the next week.

Lila Abed, a former Mexican official who is now director of the Mexico program at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, said Singbaum's situation is extremely difficult.

"The problem is that there is no clear standard for measuring whether Mexico is doing enough," she said."President Trump and his team can indeed change the rules at any time."

All negotiations are faced with a reality: the Mexican economy is centered on the United States, with cross-border trade between the two countries reaching $1.2 million per minute, according to Mexican data.

"Does Sheinbaum still have a choice?" Abed said. "For the future of her government, if it doesn't, it may be worse."

The Observer Network.

Extended reading

Before the ink of the new trade agreement between Europe and the United States is dry, US President Trump recently threatened to impose high additional tariffs on EU goods exported to the United States, on the grounds that EU technology regulations have hit American technology giants. Trump also warned that if the EU does not revoke relevant regulations on American technology companies,Will restrict U.S. exports of high-tech products and chips to Europe¡£

Although European Commission spokesperson Paula Pinho spoke out earlier this week to defend the EU's right to formulate and implement its own technical rules, saying that "it is the right of the EU and its member states to regulate economic activities in Europe". However, the European edition of Politico recently wrote an article stating that,Faced with the unequal terms of the new trade agreement between Europe and the United States and the escalating threats of the Trump administration, Europe's "century of humiliation" may have just begun¡£

Screenshot of the European edition of Politico

A contract of humiliation.

On July 27, European Commission President Von der Leyen rushed to Trump¡¯s Scottish golf resort to reach a trade deal with the U.S. European media sharply discovered that a photo taken on the spot of the deal (such as below) captured the European side¡¯s feelings about the ¡°hard to reach¡± agreement.

European Union Trade Director General Wei Yande (first row, second from left)

In the photo, most people raised their thumbs, and in it, the EU¡¯s senior trade official, the European Commission¡¯s Director-General for Trade, Sabina Weijander, did not raise her thumbs, her slightly coherent expression appeared to be somewhat rude, but told the truth: the EU has pushed itself into a difficult situation.

According to the recently announced joint statement on the European and American trade agreement, the United States will conduct inspections on automobiles, medicines, semiconductors and wood.Most EU goods exported to the United States are subject to a 15% tariff, scarce natural resources (such as cork), aircraft and parts, generic drugs, etc. can be exempted.European Union promises to remove tariffs on American industrial productsThat is, the EU has a zero tariff policy on U.S. industrial products, and the EU also provides preferential market access for U.S. seafood and agricultural products.

The EU also plans to purchase US LNG, petroleum and nuclear products worth $75 billion by 2028, US AI chips worth $40 billion, and significantly increase US military and defense equipment purchases by 2028.

Faced with this.An unbalanced, unequal agreementVon der Leyen has repeatedly argued that the U.S. trade agreement is imperfect but effective, and described the four-page framework agreement as a deliberate move "for stability and predictability rather than escalation and confrontation." ButThe deal has been widely criticized in Europe as a "submission" by the EU¡±¡¢¡°Surrender and failure.¡£

Wolf Fokman, policy analyst at the European Policy Center:I think this agreement is undoubtedly a political failure of the EU, a deal that is very beneficial to the United States.It imposes non-reciprocal tariffs on the EU, and the EU has almost all tariffs on the United States, so it is not a balanced and mutually beneficial agreement.

European political and business scholars generally believe that the European Union has not only made huge concessions to the agreement,The ambiguity of the agreement itself worsened Europe.¡£Chevcovic, Commissioner of the European Commission in charge of trade and economic security, confirmed thatEU's key demands have not been broken throughWine, spirits and other products that are more important to the European Union are not included in the tax reduction list of the agreement. The United States is very clear that this is the key appeal of the European Union, and the two sides will continue to discuss in the future. There are also European Union officials who privately admit that the agreement leaves a lot of room for flexible interpretation.Leave room for future pressure on the Trump administrationThe principle agreement is not yet legally binding, is broad and loose, and the United States may make more demands and use non-compliance as a threat.

Trump's latest statement further confirms this concern. He recently publicly stated thatIf the EU fails to fulfill its $600 billion investment commitment to the United States, the EU will face a 35% tariff¡£ The European Commission cannot force EU companies to spend $600 billion, which means that the EU's investment commitment to the United States is likely to become a bargaining chip for the Trump administration to put pressure on again.

All walks of life in Europe demand that the new agreement be overturned

In this regard, the Chairman of the German Federation of Machinery Manufacturing Bertram Kaflat, in an open letter on August 26 local time,Ask von der Leyen to renegotiate the trade deal reached between the EU and the United States¡£

In the letter, Kavrat refuted Von der Leyen's claim that the agreement ensured "stability and predictability." Cavrat pointed out that the United States imposed new tariffs on a range of machinery products just weeks after reaching an agreement in principle with the European Union at the end of July,AndThe tax rate far exceeds the benchmark tariff level of 15% stipulated in the agreement¡£More seriously, the U.S. government also plans to further expand the scope of taxation this fall and adjust the list of taxable products every four months in the future.

Von der Leyen previously visited the United States to meet with Trump

Kafrat said in his letter,These tariffs have renewed European industry into a cold wave of uncertaintyThe prospect of ¡°possibly imposing more tariffs in the coming months¡± puts key sectors of European machinery manufacturing at risk of survival.

At the same time, several European agricultural organizations also said that the European Union has provided quota tariff treatment for dairy products, pork, nuts, seafood and other agricultural products in the United States, while extending the duty-free treatment for all US lobster imports.European farmers have not been rewarded accordinglyNot only is the deal difficult to satisfy, but ¡°the EU should abandon the new deal if necessary.¡±

European Union Technical Supervision.

The Trump administration is attacking again

What worries Europeans even more is thatthisorderedThe ¡°big win¡± agreement by the United States is not in exchange for the US convergence.Recently, the Trump administration has again been in trouble, threatening that if the EU does not modify or revoke technology regulatory regulations and policies, the United States will restrict the export of key chips and high-tech products to Europe and impose a new round of high tariffs on EU goods.

European think tank scholars warned that after the two sides really began to finalize various details on steel and aluminum tariff quotas and industry exemptions,The European Union is likely to face more "humiliation"And the reason why Trump dares to be so strong is because he knowsThe United States holds two military and technical trunks.Without U.S. military support, Europe will not be able to solve the crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and without U.S. chip technology, Europe will not be able to cope with the challenge of increasing its competitiveness in the field of technology.

Regarding the Trump administration¡¯s recent re-affliction with Europe on the ¡°digital tax,¡± European scholars generally believe that through a tough attitude, the United States tells Europe, ¡°If you don¡¯t cooperate, the cost will be high.¡±

Shevchenko said that the agreement reached between the EU and the United States reflects Europe¡¯s strategic weaknesses and its serious dependence on the United States, saying that the agreement ¡°is not just about trade but also about security, about Ukraine, about the current geopolitical turmoil.¡±

Pascal Lamy, former Director-General of the World Trade Organization and former European Union Trade Commissioner, also pointed out sharply that,Europe remains under US military and strategic protection¡£European think tank experts also expressed deep sympathy in this regard.

Wolf Fokman, policy analyst at the European Policy Center:I think this reflects the concerns of many European countries that any trade conflict with the Trump administration could cause him to withdraw U.S. support for Ukraine or NATO, on which Europe's security infrastructure generally relies.

The alarm ring.

Strategic autonomy is not just an empty slogan.

European public opinion is gradually awakening to the fact that the current difficult situations are, in fact,The price Europe must pay for years of "strategic relaxation" in defense and technologyAfter the end of the Cold War, many European countries have long relied on the US "security umbrella company" and gradually lost their strategic autonomy. At the same time, complacency and insufficient investment in technological innovation have also made the European Union significantly behind in key technology fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and digital markets.

This unequal trade agreement has undoubtedly sounded the alarm for Europe: the trade game led by the Trump administration is far from over. If we can't get rid of the passive situation of being controlled by others at the level of defense and technology as soon as possible, Europe may face more unilateral pressure and unequal negotiations in the future.

Europe needs to realize that ¡°strategic autonomy¡± should not be just a beautiful and empty slogan, but should be a program of action for real advancement. Only by strengthening its own defence capabilities, promoting scientific and technological autonomy and reducing its dependence on the outside world can Europe truly master its destiny in a turbulent international landscape.