During the three days from August 27th to 29th, Vice Minister Li Chenggang of China's Ministry of Commerce took his team to the United States, and the schedule was particularly full. They not only met with officials from the U.S. Treasury Department, the Department of Commerce, and the Office of the Trade Representative, but also talked about many practical things with the U.S.-China Business Council, the American Chamber of Commerce, and many representatives of American enterprises.
The purpose of China's visit this time is particularly clear, that is, to move forward in accordance with the consensus reached by the two heads of state over the phone-we must talk about mutual respect, peaceful coexistence, and win-win cooperation, continue to use the mechanism of Sino-US economic and trade consultations, and control differences. Live, carry out cooperation, so that Sino-US relations can be stabilized and go on for a longer term. To put it bluntly, it is just to concentrate on doing business and not be disturbed by the messy noises outside.
But just as the Chinese team was preparing to leave, the United States suddenly revealed a big news: the Federal Circuit Court of Appeal in Washington ruled that the “global tariffs” initiated by the Trump administration were mostly not legal! The reason is also direct: the International Emergency Economic Power Law did not give the president the power to increase tariffs at all. But the court still left a buffer period, the ruling came into effect on October 14, giving the U.S. government time to appeal to the Supreme Court.
As soon as the verdict came out, the American media immediately blew up the pot. The Wall Street Journal said it was a "major judicial setback," CNN was more direct, using the word "fatal blow," while Fox News pressed the news in the corner of the economic page-three media outlets, three very different attitudes.
Trump himself was not lazy, immediately spoke on social media, said the court "misjudged", also emphasized the tariffs "still effective", and even spoke "if the tariffs were cancelled, the United States would completely fall into disaster". in the end he also shouted out the old slogan - "America will get the final victory". but this word listened to the hardness, carefully thought out to the bottom: "The final victory", is not to admit that now has not won? and this thing, by the screaming of slogans can not stand, in the end to see the company's accounting is good, the people's wallet does not bubble, this is the most real.
Trump is still shouting slogans here, but Sullivan is saying "the truth" over there. Sullivan may be remembered as the former national security adviser in the Biden administration. He recently spoke very thoroughly on a show called "The Bulwark Podcast".
He first broke a little: Trump’s “mass trade offensive” was not only economic losses, but also diplomatic.In the past few years, the United States has worked hard, pulling European and Asian allies, want to “risk” China, coordinate stance, and a unified calendar, and a bunch of joint statements.The result is now good, the allies instead began to discuss “how to risk America.”
Mr. Sullivan said he had previously visited a number of countries and discovered in conversations with local leaders that the concern is not "how to reduce risks from China together", but "how to reduce risks from the United States".
To make it clear, Sullivan also cited the example of India, saying it was the "most typical case" of Trump's policy mistakes. Why do you say that? Because the United States has just imposed heavy taxes on India, the two executive orders have been stacked together, and many products India exports to the United States will have to pay a 50% tariff at once-this intensity is simply visible.
In India's exports to the United States, textiles, gemstones, jewelry, these industries relying on a lot of labor force must be hit first; although the electronics and pharmaceutical industry is temporarily exempt, but the two words "temporary" can not make enterprises reassured.
Sullivan also mentioned that in the past few years, the United States has been trying to hold India as an important partner on the basis of the consensus reached by the two parties, hoping that India can help hedge against China's influence. But Trump's doing this is tantamount to kicking down the ladder he had worked so hard to build before. He also analyzed that Indian decision-makers will definitely think: "Since the risks in the United States are getting bigger and bigger, it is better to go to Beijing and sit down and talk with China. To hedge risks, you have to pave a few more roads."
In addition to India, Sullivan also mentioned opinion polls: Recently, in many countries, China has surpassed that of the United States. Whether you want to accept it or not, this is a solid investigation result. He also said something quite vivid: Now basically all countries are spreading that "the global brand of the United States has fallen into the toilet." Although this is harsh, it also expresses a reality-allies value stability and can predict what will happen next. But what about the United States? An administrative order is issued today, a tax increase tomorrow, and a cancellation or exemption will be announced the day after tomorrow. Anyone would feel uneasy.
As soon as the conversation changed, Sullivan also talked about China. He said that over the past year or so, the United States and its allies have launched a set of combination boxing against China. At that time, China was really under a lot of pressure and was still in a defensive state. But now? Trump took the initiative to attack his allies and disrupted the originally coordinated formation. As a result, China didn't have to work hard, sitting there "watching the theatre" and "sitting quite comfortably".
He also used the word “adult in the room” – meaning that in many countries, China is acting more steadily, more like a partner that can talk about things.
When it comes to the Indian line, a series of recent moves are also telling. On August 27, new US tariffs on India went into effect, affecting more than half of India's exports to the United States. It is said that Modi did not answer Trump's call four times and turned around to start the Asian trip - first to Japan, then to China for the SCO Tianjin summit.
The meaning of this route is clear: India should take the choice in its own hands, make more friends on multilateral occasions, and cooperate more with major Asian economies. India's media and experts are not hiding, believing that the tax could bring the US-India relationship down to the "worst stage" of the U.S. sanctions after India's 1998 nuclear test. and affected not only trade, but may also affect the sensitive areas of talent visas and outsourcing services.
Reuters also reminded that even if a portion of the tariffs were later lifted, the long-term impact has remained — especially in trade relations, where trust is difficult to re-establish once it is lost.
Finally, back to China's visit to the United States, Li Zhen Steel, the schedule was compact: talk to the Ministry of Finance about macroeconomy, talk to the Ministry of Commerce about cooperation with industry, communicate with the Trade Representative's Office about trade friction and rules, and listen to their real needs with the US Chamber of Commerce and enterprises.
China has repeatedly emphasized the "reciprocal respect, peaceful coexistence, win-win cooperation", but it is not accidental to say: only mutual respect can talk for a long time; only peaceful coexistence can talk about stability; only win-win cooperation can talk about the results.
Everyone knows that many of the economic and trade problems are technical, procedural, and regular, and can not be solved by the momentary emotions, we must rely on the mechanism to slowly grasp.This time, China has not been enough to comment on the internal judicial disputes in the United States, nor has it responded to the media's fierce statements, but focused on speaking clearly and doing things solidly.
This approach actually sends a signal to the business community: Even if the wind and rain are heavy outside, can we have a relatively stable "anchor"? The answer is yes-this "anchor" is the economic and trade consultation mechanism.
The pace of China's visit to the U.S. is also stable: not by shouting slogans to support the scene, but by doing the facts to win trust. for example, talk with the Ministry of Finance about how to properly match financial and macro-policy, talk with the Ministry of Commerce about how to arrange industrial cooperation and law enforcement communication, talk with the Trade Representative's Office about how to optimize the list, clear the scope of exemptions, evade the solution of disputes, talk with enterprises about how to reduce uncertainty, protect the supply chain, and make compliance more convenient for enterprises.
For us, the key is to hold your own pace, let the economic and trade consultation mechanism play a bigger role, let the enterprises have a deeper foothold, let the space for cooperation be bigger.As soon as the dust settles, look back and see today these rises and falls, you will find: it is really useful, not a slogan, not an emotion, but a step one footprint to do things solidly.
Sullivan said the words on this post, in fact, it is already very clear: the outside world is watching, who is more reliable, who can reassure people. we just do the two things "reliable" and "predictable", do not fear the outside wind and rain.