Why is Houthi “weak” like paper blank?
Many friends asked: The Houthis don't blow up merchant ships and fire missiles like "whack-a-mole" in the Red Sea every day. Why is it that the prime minister and half of the deputy cabinet are "wiped out" overnight?
The answer is simple – Houthi’s “strength” is tactical, while “weakness” is systematic, like a nine-point whip, throwing out the tiger’s wind, but holding is just a bamboo stick.
1. Hollow power structure
This time the bombed Prime Minister Rahabi, named for Yemen's "Change and Building Government" hand, is actually more like the "Houthi Office Director". Houthi's real brain, is the profound spiritual leader Abdul Malik Hussein, and the military strongmen of Defense Minister Atifi, Chief of the General Staff, Kamari. Rahabi and others are just playing the front desk, the army bars do not have to touch.
Information gaps like screens
The Yemeni people themselves say: this time there is sexual abuse. Meeting location, time, attendance list, Israel is better than Yemen traffic radio. Don't forget that 90% of Yemen's communication backbone network is European-American, mobile phone signals, satellite phones, even Zoom meetings, theoretically can leave a log in the California machine room. In the "big data naked" era, the Houthi highest layer is hard to get together to open the line, equivalent to playing poker under the opponent's telescope, do not explode you who?
3. Mass base ≠ security barrier
Western media often portray the Houthis as “controlling 23 million people”, which sounds like a brass wall of iron. But the population dividends are only valuable when fighting a lasting war, and the “deep-dive” capability is required. The Houthis set up the government building in the center of Sanaa, and the doors and the literary staff to work, this “administration” instead became the target. Compared to Lebanese Hezbollah: Nasrallah has not appeared in public for a decade, even the photos are old dirt, and Israel wants to bomb can not find a coordinate.
(2) Why did Israeli intelligence "cheat" to
Almost cheating
Three pieces of intelligence puzzle
-US satellite:Keyhole satellite overhangs Sana'a, and infrared imaging can distinguish the model of rooftop air conditioning, not to mention the thermal imaging of a room full of senior officials.
- Network penetration:Yemen’s communications chief is held by the U.S. and the EU, coupled with the Israeli 8200 troops’ cyber-fishing, Rahwi’s mobile phones may even have Wi-Fi passwords given to Mossad.
Source of information:There are many factions within Yemen, including the "Hadi Remnant Army" in the south, the "Islah Party" in the north, and the eastern tribes. Everyone wants to use a new sword to kill people. Mossad only needs to hand in a satellite phone to report the venue coordinates back to Tel Aviv.
2. Window of opportunity algorithm
The F-15 of the 69th squadron of the Israeli Air Force took off from the country, 2,000 kilometers, fueled twice in the air, with a fault window of no more than 5 minutes. This is not based on the pilot's steady hand, but on the algorithm: the AI mission planning system provided by the United States, counting the wind speed, fueled airspace, Hussein radar blind zone, and even bird migration route, finally giving a "best number of shooting seconds".
3. Additional points for psychological warfare
Israeli Defense Minister Katz's statement that "After the disaster of darkness, the disaster of the eldest son is coming" is not a verbal accusation, but a precise psychological suggestion: let the Houthi high-level officials suspect that there are ghosts around them every time they receive a text message or hear the sound of a plane overhead in the days to come. The beheading operation not only bombed buildings, but also trust. From then on, the Houthis held internal meetings, and everyone brought bodyguards. The topics were first to guess who was the mole, and the efficiency was directly cut in half.
(3) The death of Rahav,
Which arteries were blown up?
The administrative system “brain shock”
The Houthi "government" is already a patchwork: the prime minister is a northerner, the deputy prime minister is a southerner, the minister of industry is a former civil servant, and the minister of information is an Internet celebrity. Now a reimbursement is equivalent to the collective resignation of the CFO, COO, and CTO of the start-up company, leaving CEO Malik Houthi to run the social security clock in person. In the short term, no one signs the documents, no one approves the budget, and even the reply letter to Iran has to be written by himself, and the administrative machine is directly stuck.
2. The military chain of command remained unscathed
It is the advisers of Iran's Quds Force and the field commanders in Yemen who are really in charge of the missiles - these people usually spend time in caves, fishing villages, underground silos, and do not use PowerPoint for meetings, but only use walkie-talkies. The Israeli bombing of a bunch of civilians has no effect on the missile launch button of the Houthis. In the Houthis' own words: "The blood of the martyrs will be the driving force for progress" - translated: When the civilians are dead, the generals will have less constraints and fight more wildly.
3. Reshuffle of power within Yemen
First Deputy Prime Minister Mufta succeeded him in succession, but he was born in the south, and the northern direct descendants of the Houthis at the grassroots level may not buy it; while the southern tribes took the opportunity to ask for a price: if you don't give the governor's seat, you won't send troops to help you guard the Red Sea. It is foreseeable that in the next few months, the "North-South" and "Cultural Army" within the Houthis will heat up, and Israel will let them get involved without a single soldier.
From the "Red Sea Crisis" to "Agent 2.0"
1. Iran's cost calculus
Tehran gives Houthi hundreds of millions of dollars in cash, missile parts, and drone engines every year. Now, an Israeli air strike has shattered the "administrative facade" that Iran has worked hard to build. Iran must invest more: either send another 1000 instructors to help Houthi rebuild the government, or directly let the Revolutionary Guards take over. Either way, it is to carry the cost of war back from the shoulders of the agents.
2. The "dark cool" of the Arab Kingdom
Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates called for restraint on the surface, but they were happy in their hearts-Houthi missiles once landed on Riyadh Airport and Abu Dhabi oil tank farms, but now Israel is "pulling the thorn" for them without having to take the blame. Next, Gulf countries will be more willing to open airspace to Israel, share radar signals, and even acquiesce in Israeli troops taking off from Saudi bases to bomb Yemen. The Middle East version of the "enemy of the enemy" script is being staged again.
Red Sea Route: More short-term and more long-term
Hussein has promised “let the Israelis wait for the dark days” and will attack commercial ships with missiles or drones this week as soon as possible, while the U.S. Fifth Fleet has expanded its escort group of the “Guards of Prosperity”, and France and India will also use ships to make sense of the Red Sea will become the “Atlantic hanging war” of the 21st century:
In the short term, insurance costs rose, paying $500,000 more for each cruise ship.
In the medium term, more merchant ships will be around the Good Hope Corner, container journeys from China to Europe will increase by 10 days, and the global supply chain will be cut off again.
-Long-term: Israel may directly conduct a "demonstration landing" on the West Bank of Yemen, replicating the Beirut model in 1982 and turning the north entrance of the Red Sea into its own inner lake.
(5) An earth-penetrating bomb exploded three cracks
1. American and European centrifugation
The United States supplies satellites, Britain supplies air fuel, France supplies aircraft carriers, which appears to be the “Iron Triangle”, and in reality it’s a ghost: the United States wants to weaken Iran with Israel’s hand; Britain just wants to block the Suez Canal; France remembers the rebuilding of Yemen’s port after the war.
2. China and Russia's "Sitting on the Mountain and Watching the Tiger"
China's foreign ministry called on "all parties to exercise restraint", with the subtext: You can fight, but don't get in the way of my "Belt and Road Initiative". Every day the Red Sea route is blocked, the volume of China-Europe trains has increased by one cent, and the rail freight from Chongqing to Duisburg has quadrupled. Russia is more direct, privately saying it is willing to provide the Houthis with "anti-ship hypersonic technology" on the condition that the Houthis help Russian troops test new bombs on the battlefield in Ukraine. The Middle East is in chaos, and Moscow is just playing in troubled waters.
3. The "Schrodinger state" of international law
UN Secretary-General Guterres said he was "deeply concerned about civilian casualties", but did not mention Israel's 2,000-kilometer cross-border bombing. In the face of power, international law has once again become a retractable rubber band. Today Israel can bomb Yemen, and tomorrow Turkey can bomb Iraqi Kurds. When the rules are only recommendations, the world retreats to gunboat diplomacy in the 19th century.
(6) Pause button, or countdown?
Israel's "beheading thousands of miles" technically taught global military intelligence departments a lesson: what "discover and destroy" means. But strategically, it only pressed the pause button-
The Houthi military machinery still exists.
Iran's Revolutionary Guards are still there.
The mines in the Red Sea are still there.
The anger of 23 million Yemenis continues.
However, the Israeli bombs have pushed themselves on the gambling table: next time, either the Houthi missiles will land at the Tel Aviv subway entrance, or the Israeli Marines will land at the port of Hodeidah. Either way, the game of chess in the Middle East will only get bigger and bigger until it drags everyone into deeper darkness.
After all, in this day and age, beheadings don't end wars, they only end dialogue.