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Preliminary
Recently, the SCO Summit was officially held in Tianjin, China.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is still in China for a meeting, but two bad news came from the Russian-Ukrainian front line thousands of miles away。
At the same time, UN Secretary-General Guterres, who met with Putin in China, did not say anything about it.
But fortunately, Putin still has one last trump card. At least while in China, Putin does not have to worry about further deterioration of the situation。
Two pieces of bad news for Putin
The first piece of bad news Putin received was that Ukrainian forces used a new long-range cruise missile to attack Russian targets.
This cruise missile, known as the "Firebird", appeared for the first time on the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield.
According to public information, the missile has a range of more than 3,000 kilometers, which means it can strike directly from Ukraine to the Russian capital Moscow。
In this attack, the Ukrainian army fired three of these missiles on the Russian army, although it did not actually cause significant casualties or equipment loss to the Russian army, but its symbolic and strategic deterrent effect was evident.
This missile attack occurred when Putin just left Russia and came to China. It was not an accidental coincidence, but a time deliberately chosen by Ukraine。
With this missile test, Zelensky sent a clear warning signal to Putin that Ukraine has the ability to directly threaten Russia's deep strategic objectives.
If Russia does not cease fire and end the war and continues to advance military operations in Ukraine, then Ukraine may use this long-range strike weapon more frequently, and the next attack may target locations of more strategic value.
The appearance of this long-range missile has changed the military balance between Russia and Ukraine. Previously, Ukraine mainly relied on short- and medium-range weapons systems provided by the West. Although these weapons played a role in the battlefield, they could not directly pose a substantive threat to Russia。
The entry into service of the "Flamingo" missile has filled the gap in Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities, giving Ukraine new means to conduct asymmetric operations with Russia.
Russia must reassess the effectiveness of its homeland air defense system, especially to strengthen the protection of important political and economic centers and military installations, which will undoubtedly increase Russia's defense pressure and military spending.
Putin’s second bad news comes from the European Union.
On August 31, local time, the British "Financial Times" disclosed, European Commission President Von der Leyen in his visit made it clear that several EU member states are preparing to send troops to Ukraine and are currently discussing concrete programmes and action plans.。
More importantly, von der Leyen also revealed that the United States has promised to provide security guarantees for this European force and serve as their backing.
This means that although the United States does not directly send troops to fight, it will provide military and intelligence support to European countries to ensure that their actions in Ukraine will not suffer major losses or counterattacks.
The EU's attitude has changed and it is considering direct military intervention, which shows that Western countries' assessment of the battlefield situation in Ukraine has changed.
While the EU’s deployment plan still faces some internal political barriers, and not all EU member states support the radical initiative, it is likely that it will eventually be implemented if the major powers such as France and Germany push for it.。
The security guarantees provided by the United States also reduce the risk of European countries sending troops. Moreover, once European troops suffer heavy casualties or attacks, it is difficult for the United States to stay out of it completely, and Russia will face considerable pressure next.
The Putin card.
It is worth mentioning that in the face of such a situation, UN Secretary-General Guterres, who was attending the summit in China, remained silent.
Over the past few hours, he has only expressed his views on the situation in Gaza, without commenting on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
This is understandable because the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has developed to a level that is difficult to mediate by the United Nations.
The United Nations, as the largest international organization, is supposed to play a central role in maintaining world peace and security, but on the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the UN Security Council has been unable to take effective action due to differences among its permanent members。
The lack of enforcement of resolutions adopted by the UN General Assembly has led to the United Nations being gradually marginalized and unable to play a leading role in mediating conflicts and promoting peace talks.
Guterres’s silence is likely to see that through, and the so-called “lightening” doesn’t matter.。
Now, the eyes of the international community are all focused on China to see how China will react.
The Russian side clearly hopes for help from China.
This time Putin came to China, bringing three deputy prime ministers and a dozen ministers, clearly hoping to reach important cooperation agreements with China.
On the Ukrainian side, Zelensky's attitude also appears to have changed. Not long ago, he called Indian Prime Minister Modi, who was attending the SCO summit, and asked Modi to speak for Ukraine during the meeting and help push for a truce. Modi agreed to this request。
This shows that Zelensky gradually realized that European and American countries and the United Nations alone could not end the war and needed to seek help from the SCO and China.
In fact, China has been working toward a peaceful resolution of the crisis.
China's position on the Ukraine issue is clear and consistent. It advocates respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, abiding by the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, and paying attention to the legitimate security concerns of all parties。
The current problem is that Russia and Ukraine have not yet reached the basic conditions for agreement on the territorial issue.
On the other hand, senior European and American leaders, US President Trump, feared that China would take their winds, so they have not officially invited China to participate in the mediation process.
It may only be until Trump completely loses hope of an armistice that he will really ask for China's help.
Fortunately, Russia still has some reversal space, and Putin has the last bottom line, which is China’s voice on the situation in Russia and Ukraine.。
On Aug. 28, just before Putin's departure, China reiterated its call for all parties to abide by the three principles of "no spillover of the battlefield, no escalation of the war, and no arching fire by all parties."。
These three principles are specifically:
First of all, the war is not allowed to expand to other countries and regions. This is a requirement for both Russia and Ukraine;
Secondly, the scale of the war is not allowed to continue to expand and both sides are reminded not to take actions that will cause the situation to deteriorate;
Finally, external forces are required not to fan the flames, which is mainly aimed at Europe, America and NATO countries.
NATO has been providing military assistance to Ukraine and provoking Russia with heated rhetoric, apparently hoping to use Ukraine to hold Russia back and ultimately weaken Russia.
From the perspective of its own strategic interests and national defense security, China’s appeal is to hope that all sides will create conditions for a peaceful resolution of the crisis, rather than allowing the situation to worsen further.。
To some extent, China’s position has provided some international support to Russia.
At least during Putin’s visit to China, it can be assured that the situation facing Russia will not rush backwards.
Because the current situation is that Zelensky, Trump and EU countries all want from China, Ukraine will not go too far during Putin's stay in China。
But backwards, China’s warnings can only serve as a temporary mitigation.If Russia wants to really stabilize the situation, Putin needs to return home as soon as possible after completing his diplomatic mission and deal with domestic affairs personally.
UN Secretary-General Guterres has also called the conflict in Ukraine a test for the global governance system and called on all parties to prioritize diplomatic activities and peaceful settlement.。
China supports all efforts towards peace and will continue to play a constructive role in the political resolution of the crisis.
What do you think about this, please share your opinion in the comment section.
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Reference: The Thunder Network – Dozens of thousands of troops are being sent to Europe or Ukraine, von der Leyen: specific plans are being developed to send troops
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls on all parties involved in the Ukrainian crisis to abide by the three principles of non-exaggeration of the battlefield, non-escalation of the fighting, and non-armor.