Indonesian President Prabowo, who had originally confirmed that he was coming to China to participate in the September 3rd military parade, suddenly announced the cancellation of the trip at the last moment. The news came suddenly, and the Indonesian side explained that the domestic situation had changed suddenly:
Large-scale demonstrations have taken place in several cities, and the president must deal with the crisis at home. Meanwhile, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has arrived in China, not only with a gift of potatoes symbolizing friendship, but also publicly declared that "Belarus will never betray China."
Between this retreat and advance, China's home diplomacy ushered in unexpected new variables, and also made international observers see the profound changes taking place in the world pattern.
Sudden changes in Indonesia, the president temporarily withdraws
Since late August, mass demonstrations have broken out in several major cities in Indonesia, the situation has been tense to the extent that public facilities have been burned.
The protests were mainly concentrated in major cities such as Jakarta and Vanuatu, where demonstrators carried colorful flags and spread banners on the streets demanding the dissolution of parliament and the struggle for more social benefits.
The severity of the situation made the Chinese Embassy in Indonesia urgently issue a safety reminder, calling on Chinese citizens in Indonesia to avoid going to crowded places. Faced with this situation, prabowo finally made a difficult decision: cancel his scheduled visit to China.
The Indonesian presidential spokesperson said in a video statement that Prabowo hopes to stay in the country and continue to monitor the development of the situation and seek the best solution, and expresses his deep apologies to the Chinese government for this.
This is not the first time a similar incident has occurred in Indonesia. In 2019, large-scale demonstrations also broke out in the country due to the election results, but this time the scope and intensity were significantly higher than before.
This political mutation in Indonesia is not an isolated event.A number of international relations analysts believe that the protests do not rule out the help of Western countries.
This speculation is not empty, and Indonesia, as an important country in Southeast Asia, with rich natural resources and strategic location, has been the focus of the competition for influence of the great powers.
It is worth noting that the recent adjustment of the United States 'global trade policy has had a ripple effect on emerging market countries. As one of Southeast Asia's largest economies, Indonesia is feeling the pressure particularly evident.
Volatility in international commodity prices directly affects Indonesia's export earnings, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike policy has put the Indonesian rupiah under depreciation pressure.
In sharp contrast to people's lives are the high subsidies from senior parliamentary officials. This widening gap between rich and poor has become a catalyst for social dissatisfaction.
Western forces may take advantage of this to amplify social conflicts and pressure the current government by supporting certain Non-governmental organizations and media.
A sharp contrast to Indonesia’s temporary withdrawal was the firm gesture of the President of Belarus. Lukashenko not only came to China in person, but also brought a symbolic gift: Belarusian potatoes.
This seemingly simple gift actually contains profound meaning. It not only demonstrates Belarus's agricultural characteristics, but also symbolizes the pragmatism and sincerity of the relationship between the two countries.
In an interview, Lukashenko stated unambiguously: "Belarus will never betray China."He also specially mentioned what his son was studying at the university in China, revealing his closeness and trust in China in his words.
The Shanghai Cooperation Summit debuts, China's home diplomacy
At the same time, this year's Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit was held in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1. This is the fifth time that China has hosted the SCO summit and the largest summit since the establishment of the SCO.
More than 20 foreign leaders and 10 heads of international organizations gathered on the shore of the river to summarize the successful experience of the SCO and plan a blueprint for the future development of the organization.
The summit will adopt a number of important documents such as the Tianjin Declaration, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s Development Strategy until 2035, which will develop detailed plans for the organization’s development in the next decade.
As one of the founding members of the SCO, China has always actively participated in and promoted the development of the SCO. From the initial six member countries, it has grown to a large family of 26 countries today.
The SCO has become one of the most populous and geographically diverse international organizations in the world, a process that complements China's growing role on the international stage.
From the perspective of participation of countries, the attitude of the international community toward China shows a clear differentiation. Western countries such as the United States and North Korea and other nine Western powers collectively absent from the 93rd parade, this phenomenon is worthy of play.
While these countries often emphasize “a rule-based international order” in international events, they have shown a high degree of consistency in geopolitical choices.
Change in China, Change in China's role
In sharp contrast, six Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia originally responded positively. Although the Indonesian president ultimately failed to make the trip, his initial attitude already explained the problem.
Southeast Asian countries have close economic ties with China, while alsoining cooperation with the United States in the field of security, and this "economy depends on China, security depends on the United States" dual strategy is being tested.
India's approach is the most meaningful. Modi confirmed that he would come to China to attend the Shanghai Summit, but kept silent about the 1993 military parade. This subtle operation of "only visiting but not watching ceremonies" is a typical Indian-style balanced diplomatic strategy.
As an emerging power, India not only wants to maintain strategic autonomy, but also wants to obtain practical benefits from all parties. This tightrope diplomacy is becoming more and more difficult.
This diplomatic "one advance and one retreat" drama actually reflects the profound changes in the world pattern. The influence of traditional powers is relatively declining, the voice of emerging countries is increasing, and the world is accelerating towards multi-polarization.
In this process, China plays an increasingly important role. China's development experience is being studied and used for reference by more and more countries.
In particular, successful practices in the fields of infrastructure building, poverty alleviation and development, and scientific and technological innovation have provided new options for developing countries. This improvement in soft power can better explain the change in China's international status than simple economic figures.
At the same time that the 1993 parade was held successfully, the news came from Indonesia that President Prabhupada had succeeded in calming the domestic situation and once again expressed his friendship with China.
The world is like this, sometimes temporarily backward, in order to better move forward.This "pressure test" of China's home-field diplomacy eventually became the stage of showing China's diplomacy maturity and confidence.
References:
"Large-scale demonstrations have taken place in many places in Indonesia, and our embassy has reminded them" - Observer Network