The Sino-US trade dispute has never stopped since Trump took office for the second term. In the first few months of 2025, the tariff war was raging, with the United States increasing its weight layer by layer, and China also facing tit-for-tat. By August, the situation showed some signs of easing, but there was also a new powder keg hidden. The Trump administration suddenly shifted the focus of negotiations from the general trade deficit to specific things such as soybean procurement, rare earth supply and energy import, which made the outside world call the issue greatly changed. The U.S. side was anxious to talk about the fourth round, and the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded with 15 words: For specific questions, it is recommended to ask the Chinese competent authorities. This sounds simple, but it actually reveals China's attitude of not being impatient and not letting go of the initiative.
This trade war was not a day or two. Trump's second term, starting January 20, saw tariffs as a big stick, and in April, U.S.-China tariffs jumped to three-digit highs, the average U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods reached 57.6%, China on U.S. goods also reached 32.6%. The global economy was delayed, and the World Bank cut its forecast for growth in 2025 to 2.3%. But in May, in Geneva, a framework agreement was discussed, the two sides agreed to lower tariffs, the U.S. dropped from 127.2% to 51.8%, and China dropped from 147.6% to 32.6%.
This was a temporary respite. In June, London discussed details again, restrictions on rare earth exports were relaxed, and the United States also relaxed some export controls. The conversation continued in Stockholm in July, but progress was limited. On August 11, Trump signed an executive order extending the tariff suspension for another 90 days, ending on November 10. This left a time window for the fourth round of talks. Senior US officials, like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, said in the media that they hoped to restart dialogue as soon as possible to discuss the economic and trade prospects between China and the United States.
The report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture on August 13 showed that the production of soybeans is expected to be 4.3 billion in 2025-2026, stocks are down, prices are rising in the short term, but demand is not followed. China was the number one buyer of soybeans in the U.S., bought more than 22 million tons in 2024, can trade friction, China turned to Brazil, locked 12 million tons of supply. The U.S. Central West soybeans farm days are sad, the harvest of seasonal inventories build up, the electoral district sentiment is high. Republican stockpile is in these agricultural states, Trump can not matter. He posted in the White House, saying he hopes China will double the purchase of American soybeans as soon as possible, and said it can help reduce China's reversal.
On August 25, Trump met with South Korean President Lee in the morning, referring directly to China's monopoly on the global rare-earth market, saying that if it does not restore magnet exports, the United States will impose 200% tariffs. China controls the rare-earth refining chain, mining is easy to purify, US manufacturing can not separate this thing, from new energy vehicles to military-industrial chips, all rely on it.
China's Ministry of Commerce data shows that rare earth exports to the United States have declined since 2023, and will be tighter in 2025. There are hawks in the Trump administration, such as Trade Representative Jamison Greer, who insist on pressure; doves, such as Vicente, feel that China, as the second largest economy, should be respected. Trump swings between the two, threatening while organizing a business group to visit China. The plan was exposed in June. The heads of US companies want to go to China to negotiate terms, but only if the US has to pay the price.
Energy trade has also become a new focus. Data shows that starting from March 2025, China will stop buying U.S. liquefied natural gas. After June, crude oil will be interrupted, and coal will drop from 1.35 million tons in January to less than 1 ton per month. China has long signed agreements with Russia, the Middle East, and South America, and diversified supply has stabilized. U.S. energy companies complained that Trump asked China to resume imports of oil, natural gas and coal, saying this would balance the deficit. But China has gotten rid of its dependence on the United States, and this card is not a good one. When Trump notified China, he talked energy with soybeans and rare earth bundles. The US media said this was a surface of political anxiety. The truce period ends in November. If negotiations fail to reach, tariffs will be fully restored, which will be a countdown to the Trump administration.
China's response was low-key but firm. In response to the US question whether to talk about soybeans, etc., the Ministry of Foreign Affairs only said those 15 words, did not deny or promise, and left blank diplomacy smooth. At a press conference on August 26, spokesperson Guo Jiakun reiterated China's position on the threat of rare earth tariffs. The US media determined that this signal is not a public signal that China will not publicly show its cards and that soybean rare earth energy is not an urgent concession option. The initiative lies in the hands of China, and it depends on what chips the United States offers. The fentanyl tariff may be an exchange. The United States recognizes that China has made progress in control, but Trump has a big appetite and wants to exchange more, including in the energy sector. China's Vice Commerce Minister Li Chenggang traveled to Washington this week to contact Trade Representative Greer, which is seen as the fourth round of paving the way. China took the initiative to visit the United States to show sincerity, but controlled the pace itself.
The negotiation process was tense enough. The U.S. internal stance was different, and Bessent said in an interview on Wall Street that China deserves respect, and Grill insisted on expanding pressure at Congressional hearings. Trump spoke hard, and raised corporations. The June plan showed that if the visit to China was successful, there are many opportunities for mitigation. But from the beginning to the end, the principle of exchange has not changed, how much the U.S. wants to get, how much should be given. China has reduced U.S. debt to a 2009 low, 75.6 billion, showing preparation for a long-term game. Trump’s goal is to realise the economic and trade results before the election, but China does not panic, diversified trade has been shaped, the EU, ASEAN trade has a total
Trump wants to use tariffs to leverage China to make concessions, but China is confident enough to lay out a self-sufficiency chain early. American companies are in a hurry, farmers are looking forward to orders, and manufacturing is worried about rare earths. When the fourth round of talks came, the topic changed, but the core remained the same. Whoever gives more concessions will take less advantage. When Trump informed China, he thought he could hold down the field, but the Chinese side responded with 15 words and kicked the ball back to the competent authorities, meaning that if you want to talk, find the right person to talk slowly. US media said that this reflects Trump's anxiety and China's calmness. The world is watching the fun, and the economy suffers. I hope to talk about out-point benefits, and stop tossing the common people.