Without Putin, what would Russia do? Lee Kuan Yew, the founding father of Singapore, said something that penetrated the essence of Russia more than 20 years ago: "After Putin, Russia will most likely fall into a turbulent mud pit. This country relies too much on strongmen to support it, and the foundation of modern governance has not been laid at all. firm."
The words of Li Guangzhou directly refer to the pain of Russia, which has been superficially stable over the years, mainly relying on Putin's personal control of the overall situation.
Russia's years of power transfer did not come according to the rules, when Putin and Medvedev made a "two-man turn", it looked smooth, in fact, all private arrangements, not at all on institutional guarantees.
Looking at Russia's power structure, the word "centralization" has been achieved to the extreme. Putin has been cutting local power over the years. Recently, he simply cut more than 17,000 local self-government institutions to only 1,300. It is said that it is to improve efficiency, but in fact it is to grasp all power in the hands of the central government.
In the short term, this approach can really concentrate on doing big things, but in the long run, it is like putting all the eggs in a basket, once the problem arises in the center, the place can not operate on its own.
Moreover, doing so has also offended many local forces, especially those ethnic minority areas in Chechnya. Usually, they dare to be angry and not speak out. When the central authority is weak, there will be chaos if it is not guaranteed.
The economic problems become more obvious, Russia is simply a "tanker station", energy exports account for more than half of the federal budget, although the past two years have shifted oil exports to Asia, China and India became the main buyers, but this is unresolved.
As international oil prices fluctuate, the Russian wallet will follow, can such days last long?
When Putin was there, he could still rally people's hearts through a tough attitude, but the economy was not good, and the people's lives were not easy. After a long time, who could always support you? After a new leader, if the economy could not be handled, the people's dissatisfaction would break out, and the society would be stable.
It's really heart-wrenching to say that it has not been easy for ordinary Russians these years. Putin has indeed given them a sense of security and great power pride, but this pride is built on the beach.
Without a solid institutional foundation, a healthy economic structure, and all relying on personal charm and tough measures, how can such stability last long?
Li Xiaoyu said that the foundation of modern Russian governance has not been imprisoned, it is a bit false, you look at those countries that are truly stable, no matter who is the leader, the state machine can operate as normal, because there is a system there.
But in Russia, everything depends on Putin to decide. Even the goals of military operations in Ukraine are said that only Putin can change. How is this a normal governance model?
Now those successors that Putin has cultivated, either "your own people" such as Jumanji, or the "Prince Party", who rely on relationships, are not really able to serve the public.
When Putin is really gone, these people will definitely fight for power. At that time, the economic downturn, local rebellions, and factional struggles will come together, and it will be strange that Russia will not fall into turmoil.
Those countries in the West will not be lazy, they will be able to pressure, and when internal troubles and external troubles come together, the days of Russia will be difficult.
In the end, the problem with Russia is not in one person, but in the system, Putin is indeed a strong man and wants to do his best to govern the country, but he has chosen the wrong direction, putting all his hopes on personal authority, rather than the establishment of a truly modern governance system.
Like the cure, Putin uses painkillers, can temporarily relieve the pain, but can not cure the root of the disease.
The reason for Li's prophecy is convincing, is because he has seen this, that Russia wants to truly stabilize its development, it is not possible to rely on strong people alone, it must establish a sound system, strike the foundation of governance, otherwise, the turmoil after Putin, I am afraid it is really difficult to avoid, this is not only Russia's sadness, but also the common lesson of all countries that rely on strong people's politics.
The words of Li Guangzhou directly refer to the pain of Russia, which has been superficially stable over the years, mainly relying on Putin's personal control of the overall situation.
Russia's years of power transfer did not come according to the rules, when Putin and Medvedev made a "two-man turn", it looked smooth, in fact, all private arrangements, not at all on institutional guarantees.
Looking at Russia's power structure, the word "centralization" has been achieved to the extreme. Putin has been cutting local power over the years. Recently, he simply cut more than 17,000 local self-government institutions to only 1,300. It is said that it is to improve efficiency, but in fact it is to grasp all power in the hands of the central government.
In the short term, this approach can really concentrate on doing big things, but in the long run, it is like putting all the eggs in a basket, once the problem arises in the center, the place can not operate on its own.
Moreover, doing so has also offended many local forces, especially those ethnic minority areas in Chechnya. Usually, they dare to be angry and not speak out. When the central authority is weak, there will be chaos if it is not guaranteed.
The economic problems become more obvious, Russia is simply a "tanker station", energy exports account for more than half of the federal budget, although the past two years have shifted oil exports to Asia, China and India became the main buyers, but this is unresolved.
As international oil prices fluctuate, the Russian wallet will follow, can such days last long?
When Putin was there, he could still rally people's hearts through a tough attitude, but the economy was not good, and the people's lives were not easy. After a long time, who could always support you? After a new leader, if the economy could not be handled, the people's dissatisfaction would break out, and the society would be stable.
It's really heart-wrenching to say that it has not been easy for ordinary Russians these years. Putin has indeed given them a sense of security and great power pride, but this pride is built on the beach.
Without a solid institutional foundation, a healthy economic structure, and all relying on personal charm and tough measures, how can such stability last long?
Li Xiaoyu said that the foundation of modern Russian governance has not been imprisoned, it is a bit false, you look at those countries that are truly stable, no matter who is the leader, the state machine can operate as normal, because there is a system there.
But in Russia, everything depends on Putin to decide. Even the goals of military operations in Ukraine are said that only Putin can change. How is this a normal governance model?
Now those successors that Putin has cultivated, either "your own people" such as Jumanji, or the "Prince Party", who rely on relationships, are not really able to serve the public.
When Putin is really gone, these people will definitely fight for power. At that time, the economic downturn, local rebellions, and factional struggles will come together, and it will be strange that Russia will not fall into turmoil.
Those countries in the West will not be lazy, they will be able to pressure, and when internal troubles and external troubles come together, the days of Russia will be difficult.
In the end, the problem with Russia is not in one person, but in the system, Putin is indeed a strong man and wants to do his best to govern the country, but he has chosen the wrong direction, putting all his hopes on personal authority, rather than the establishment of a truly modern governance system.
Like the cure, Putin uses painkillers, can temporarily relieve the pain, but can not cure the root of the disease.
The reason for Li's prophecy is convincing, is because he has seen this, that Russia wants to truly stabilize its development, it is not possible to rely on strong people alone, it must establish a sound system, strike the foundation of governance, otherwise, the turmoil after Putin, I am afraid it is really difficult to avoid, this is not only Russia's sadness, but also the common lesson of all countries that rely on strong people's politics.