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U.S. trade war and China-India relations become the focus of attention at Tianjin summit

More than 20 world leaders, including Russian President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi, attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit.

The Beijing-backed SCO will hold meetings in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin on Sunday and Monday, bringing together various power brokers from Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

Founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, the summit has shifted its focus from Central Asian issues to global issues over the past two decades.

More importantly, the SCO has become an important part of China's "parallel international governance architecture", says Erik Oland, editor-in-chief of the China-Global South Project.

Olander told Al Jazeera that with Beijing becoming the second largest superpower in the world, the SCO has created space for dialogue and cooperation outside the "US-led international system".

Oland said that while the Tianjin summit was largely symbolic, it was a valuable opportunity for global leaders and officials to come together and share "common grievances."

As U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war against most of the world, including many of Washington's traditional allies, casts a shadow over the summit, participants may have more in common.

Guests include Putin, who is being sought by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, Belarus’ leader Alexander Lukashenko and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

There are also long-standing rivalries and border disputes between many participating countries, such as India and Pakistan, India and China, Saudi Arabia and Iran, and Central Asia with China and Russia.

“Destroying the country”

In recent years, the SCO has been expanding its membership, with India, Pakistan, Iran, Belarus and other political powers becoming full members, while Afghanistan and Mongolia joined as observers.

The official “dialogue partners” also expanded to 14 countries including the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Cambodia, Myanmar and Sri Lanka.

The summit will also focus on the South East Asia region, which Holland likened to a "swing state" in the great power rivalry between China and the United States.

Five heads of state from the region will attend the meeting, including Malaysia's Anwar Ibrahim, as well as Association of Southeast Asian Nations Secretary-General Koh Kim Hong.

Song Gaozu, an analyst at the German Centre for Chinese Studies (MERICS) specializing in China’s global strategy, said observers will be closely watching the dynamics between China and India, where the two leaders have not met for seven years.

India has traditionally been Washington’s ally, but this week Trump imposed a 50% tariff on its ongoing purchase of Russian oil to punish it for its ongoing purchase of Russian oil.

The White House said India's trade helped keep the Russian economy afloat despite international sanctions and the war in Ukraine.

But the common U.S. tariff threat has helped improve relations between New Delhi and Beijing.In 2020, relations between the two countries deteriorated sharply due to a deadly conflict between the Himalayan border forces.

The two sides reached an agreement on the remote border in 2024, but relations between the two countries remain cold.

Analysts say China sees Trump's trade war as an opportunity to separate India from political and military blocs such as the U.S.-led Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD). The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is a strategic security forum that includes Japan and Australia in addition to India and the United States.

Emperor Gaozu of Song told Al Jazeera: "The key is to see how China describes its relations with India after the visit and how Sino-Indian relations can improve."

He said that even tiny language changes in Beijing are sending important diplomatic signals.

The Shanghai Cooperation Summit will also be the first meeting between Chinese and Russian leaders since meeting with President Trump in Alaska earlier this month to discuss the war in Ukraine.

Analysts will be watching for similar changes in the wording of the two leaders in describing Sino-Russian relations.

Given so many dynamics behind the scenes, Daniel Balaz, a China project researcher at Singapore’s Larran International Research Institute, said the most likely outcome of the SCO summit would be a joint statement by all participants.

China and Russia are expected to put forward key points of talks such as opposing "unilateralism". It's a cryptic reference to America But most of the language will be watered down to make it acceptable to everyone.

"The symbolism of the real joint statement is more important than the content of the statement itself," Barraz said.

He said: “What I expect is a statement that is not controversial so that everyone can get involved.”

Barraz said: “Security and stability, comments on improving economic cooperation, and a few comments on the importance of multilateralism.”

After the summit, guests will spend the whole day in China before heading to Beijing on September 3 for a grand military parade to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Asia.

Oland of the China-Global South Project said the extra day a 9 - 2 It will be a golden time for bilateral talks.

He said: "Who will meet with whom on September 2 is a matter of concern."

More heads of state will attend the parade the next day, including North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Serbian President Alexander Wuchic and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is not expected to attend the military parade, but analysts say he may send a representative to attend, such as the foreign minister.

Song Gaozu, of the Meca Institute, said the expansion of the summit and the parade guest list would boost Beijing’s public image, especially in the “global southern” countries.

Source: Al Jazeera



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