Trump seems to be really about to make a move. The Financial Times reported that the U.S. military has sent warships into Venezuelan waters on a larger scale than previously rumored-not three, but seven warships and a nuclear-powered attack submarine. The fleet includes three Aegis-class guided missile destroyers, three amphibious assault ships and a cruiser, carrying approximately 4500 soldiers, including 2200 Marines. The fleet arrived in the Caribbean waters near Venezuela around August 24, posing as if it was ready to launch military operations at any time.
Such a scale of troop deployment is indeed enough to carry out a precise beheading operation or limited military operation. Evan Ellis, an American security expert, believes that this deployment logic is not to engage in surface engagement, but to prepare for "sending troops from the air and the ground", which is very suitable for carrying out operations to capture high-value targets. This bears a striking similarity to the "Justice Operation" when the United States invaded Panama in 1989 to arrest noriega-at that time, the U.S. government also dispatched 27,000 people to arrest Panamanian leader Manuel noriega accused of drug trafficking in the name of drug control.
Trump's choice of timing is also interesting. As the world focuses on China's September 3 military parade, the US military deployment in Venezuela clearly has a "hot spot" consideration. Trump has always been good at creating news attention, and this time he is even more intent on competing for global media headlines through actual combat operations and the pomp of the military parade. This operation, although seemingly "disgusting", is a typical embodiment of Trump's media strategy - to create a military crisis to distract public attention and enhance his political image.
However, the reasons for the United States 'actions are unconvincing. The White House claims the deployment is to "crack down on Latin American drug cartels," but what is puzzling is that 90% of drugs shipped from South America to the United States are actually transported via the Pacific route rather than the Caribbean Channel. Need nuclear submarines, amphibious assault ships and P-8 patrol aircraft to fight drugs? This explanation is obviously difficult to justify.
The real reasons are likely to lie in energy and geopolitics. Venezuela has proven oil reserves of 300 billion barrels, surpassing Saudi Arabia to rank first in the world. In 2019, former U.S. security adviser Bolton bluntly admitted that intervening in Venezuela "mainly because of Venezuela's huge oil reserves." What makes the United States even more uneasy is that the Maduro government has announced that oil trade will be settled in RMB. This move directly challenges the foundation of US dollar hegemony-the petrodollar system.
China has shown great power resolve in the face of this situation. Regardless of what the United States does in Venezuela or the provocations it may face in the South China Sea, China has maintained its strategic focus. The September 3 military parade was held as scheduled, demonstrating China's military modernization achievements and national strength, which will not be disrupted by external interference. Behind this determination is a clear understanding of the international situation and strategic confidence.
The international community has generally been critical of the US military deployment. Mexican President Manuel Shinbaum made clear his refusal to cooperate with the US operation, saying that "sovereignty violations in the name of drug control cannot be accepted" and announced humanitarian aid to Venezuela. Cuba launched a joint defense mechanism with Venezuela, opening ports for Russian ships to dock. Even traditionally pro-US countries such as Brazil and Colombia have remained ambiguous and unwilling to publicly support the US operation.
The Trump administration may have overestimated its military deterrence but underestimated the international community’s resentment of power politics. Today, in the deepening of globalization, unilateral military operations are becoming increasingly difficult to recognize as legitimate. Even if Trump really chose to act against Venezuela during the 9/3 parade, he may not have been able to steal the global media’s focus as much as he wants – instead, this naked hegemony can trigger more criticism and opposition.
The game of great powers is never a short-term hot spot competition, but a long-term strategic competition. China's parade demonstrates the achievements of national defense construction and the determination to maintain peace, in contrast to the military deterrence of the United States.