The countdown to the September 3rd military parade has entered. According to the list of foreign heads of state visiting China announced earlier, the Indonesian president is on the list. But now Indonesia suddenly saidPrabowoHe was unable to come and expressed his apology to China through diplomatic channels, saying that he hoped to gain China's understanding.

This sudden adjustment of the schedule, only a few days from major international events, is not common in the field of diplomacy.So the absence of the Indonesian president, the core reason is also that the unrest in Indonesia has intensified.

Since last month, a number of major cities such as Jakarta, Vanuatu, Indonesia, have broken out mass demonstrations, and the situation has now been out of control. The protesters not only siege government buildings, but also set fire to police stations and stations, eventually causing people to die. This level of riots, not a small piece of street protests, behind the Indonesian people are leaking dissatisfaction with the people's livelihood policy and social governance. For the Indonesian government, the most priority at the moment is to maintain domestic order.

The Indonesian president, as the leader of the country, can not go away naturally at this time. Just like when the street riots broke out in Brazil in 2023, Lula directly canceled his previous European visit and focused on sitting in the city capital to coordinate the riots, the Indonesian president is now facing the same situation.

The other is the more difficult political trouble. Indonesia just held the presidential election in 2024. After the combination of Prabowo and Gibran won the election, they thought they would usher in a period of political stability. As a result, in August this year, the "revision of the electoral law" led to chaos in the country.

The plot was clear: Indonesia's Constitutional Court had ruled that candidates for provincial governor and vice-governor must be at least 30 when registered, directly blocking Kasan, the youngest son of former President Joko Widodo, from local elections in November. But it didn't take long for the Indonesian parliament to suddenly push to amend the law to change the age requirement to "30 years old when swearing in", apparently "tailor-made" rules for Kasan.

This time, the Indonesian people did not buy it. The protest slogans directly read "Oppose nepotism" and "Defend Democracy". Protests in many places were also mixed with previous security riots. For Prabowo, who has only been in office for about a year, the most important thing now is to gain a firm foothold. On the one hand, he has to deal with the opposition's attack on the "law amendment controversy", on the other hand, he has to appease the angry people and advance his own governance plan.

In the first quarter of this year, the Indonesian economy grew by just 4.87%, the lowest in more than 3 years, and the trend is still downward.

The economy was dragged to this point due to double pressure at home and abroad.Out of the outside, the United States directly threatened to impose tariffs of 32% on Indonesia, which is simply a blizzard for the Indonesian economy backed by exports.The influence of U.S. tax increases, this year from 1 to April, Indonesian stock market net foreign capital flowed out of 50.72 trillion Indonesian shields, and the quarterly bond market also flowed out of 6.11 trillion Indonesian shields, capital running faster than anyone.

The internal problems of Indonesia are more difficult, with its resident consumption contributing more than half of Indonesia's GDP growth, can be started at the end of 2024, the consumption growth has been downward, the first quarter of 2025 has only grown 4.89%, far below the historical average. The most intuitive example is this year's Easter Festival, as the most important festival in Indonesia, the past year has been a consumption peak, but this year's number of travellers is 47 million less than last year, consumption expenditure and capital flow is visible, behind this is a marked decline in Indonesian people's purchasing power.

In order to save the economy, the Indonesian government on June 5 launched the 24.44 trillion Indonesian shield "summer economic stimulation plan", from transport subsidies to energy benefits, to social assistance, the tricks can be thought of are used, the goal is to pull the economic growth rate back in the second quarter about 5%. In this shrinking eye, the Indonesian president must look at the landing effect of the stimulation plan, coordinate the policies of various departments to promote, so that domestic economic work is likely to disrupt.

Taking these three points together, the Indonesian president's absence from the 1993 military parade was essentially a choice under the triple pressures of domestic security, politics and economy. Therefore, Indonesia said that it hopes China can understand. There is really nothing to say about this, it can indeed be forgiven.

Although the Indonesian President Prabhupada will not attend the parade, this will not affect the overall relationship between China and Indonesia. The two countries have been deeply rooted in cooperation in the fields of economic trade, infrastructure, clean energy and other fields over the years, such as the large participation of Chinese companies in the construction of Indonesian new capital, uranium mining cooperation, high-speed railway construction, etc. These are real and mutually beneficial and win-win projects. And China has always adhered to a mutual respect diplomatic attitude, and can naturally understand the situation of Indonesia due to the domestic affairs adjustment process. This absence is only an individual event in special circumstances, will not affect the relations between the two countries.

The next thing worthy of attention is whether Indonesia can stabilize domestic tensions as soon as possible. Because only when the country is stable can Indonesia have more energy to participate in international cooperation, and only then can China and Indonesia promote friendly relations to a new level on the basis of previous cooperation. Indonesia is now the country with the highest favorable impression of China in Southeast Asia.