Thinking back to the missile crisis in 1962, it always feels like a taut string that could break the world at any time. The Soviet Union secretly installed medium-range missiles in Cuba that could reach the mainland of the United States. After American intelligence planes took evidence of the scene, the Kennedy administration directly ordered the Navy to blockade the waters around Cuba and intercept Soviet ships. At that time, the Soviet Union had 176 intercontinental missiles deployed in Cuba, covering a large area from Washington to New York, and the United States had similar missiles aimed at the Soviet Union in Turkey. The two sides were deadlocked for 13 days. Khrushchev finally gave in and dismantled the Cuban base, and the United States withdrew the Turkish missiles a few months later. The standoff almost led to a nuclear war, but it also exposed the bottom line of the great powers: no one can tolerate the threat at their own doorstep. Cuba has become a sandwich cookie, and the United States has continued its economic blockade for more than 60 years since then. The United Nations has passed resolutions every year to demand its lifting, but the United States has always taken it seriously.
Looking at the current Russian-Ukrainian affairs, since the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, the powder keg has been planted. After the fall of the pro-Russian government in Ukraine, Russian troops took control of Crimea, and the Udon Donetsk and Luhansk regions became independent, and conflicts continued sporadically. NATO has since increased its military assistance to Ukraine, providing weapons and training, and Ukraine has repeatedly expressed its intention to join NATO. This makes Russia feel that its backyard is on fire, especially if missile bases are lined up along the Russian-Ukrainian border, and Moscow is within a few hundred kilometers of each other. In 2021, the situation escalated, Putin and Biden talked several times, but every time there were signs of detente, the United States gave up the ante assistance, and the fire started again.
On February 24, 2022, Russian troops crossed the border, tanks clustered forward to the east, the conflict broke out entirely. By August 2025, Russia had controlled about 20% of Ukraine's land, including a large area of the east, but Ukraine launched a counterattack in Kursk in August, destroying bridges and supply lines, Russia mobilized the reserves to retaliate, the front to shave. After Russia annexed Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Helsinki, international condemnation was loud, like the shadow of the expansion of the old Russian, economic sanctions allowed the ruble to fluctuate, and the military advance also slowed.
When the Soviet missile crisis came, the United States felt that the Soviet missiles were too close to home, and Kennedy could bet that the nuclear war would also push back. Russia's logic in Ukraine was the same: NATO's expansion to the east was like putting the top of the gun to the head. Lavrov said that Ukraine and the missile crisis had similarities, because Western weapons threatened Russia's mainland.
The missile crisis was a momentary confrontation of the peak of the Cold War, while Russia and Ukraine were long accumulated frictions involving territory and alliance expansion. In the missile crisis, the Soviet Union was in response to U.S. missiles in Turkey, Ukraine did not deploy nuclear weapons, and Ukraine did not join NATO before the Russian invasion.
In the final analysis, the security interests of the five permanent members-the United States, China, Russia, France and Britain, permanent members of the UN Security Council-are that red line, and whoever touches it will suffer. When the strength of these countries is placed there, international rules sometimes become air. After World War II, the United States launched dozens of military operations, from North Korea in 1950 to Vietnam in 1965, and then to Iraq in 2003, overthrowing many regimes, tanks drove into cities, causing a large number of casualties, but the position of the United States was as stable as Mount Tai.
Britain in 1982 for the Falkland Islands, Argentina first to occupy, British fleet across the Atlantic killed, troops landing operation, in June Army surrendered, although the United Nations many believe the island belongs to Argentina, Britain still firmly hold. China in 1979 in the face of the Vietnamese border invasion and it holds the Soviet leg move, launched self-defense counterattack, troops attacked northern Vietnam in March withdrawal, Vietnam has not dared to move for years.
France has more hidden influence in West Africa, through the CFA franc system, 14 foreign exchange deposits in the central bank of Paris, France benefits from it, where coups are frequent, and French intelligence is often coordinated behind. India is also strong in South Asia, in 1971 the East Pakistan, to help Bangladesh independence, tanks cross border operations; in 1975 the annexation of Ziking, the army enters the abolished king's palace; also interfering in the internal affairs of Bhutan, Nepal, Maldives and Sri Lanka, the naval blockade ports.
These things can’t be avoided by power, small nations stepped down the bottom line, short-term benefits, long-term succession. Ukraine inherited Soviet nuclear weapons, thousands of warheads, strategic bombers and aircraft carriers during independence, but in 1994 the Budapest Memorandum was signed, abandoned nuclear weapons and security security, dismantled facilities, launched bullets, and military decline. Leadership turns, corruption and oligarchy dragged the economy, and did not play well with the balance of the great powers, resulting in a battlefield.
The US aid to Ukraine 130 billion, including 50 billion military aid, but mostly warehouse old goods such as M113 armored vehicles and Stinger missiles, sold at high prices. Compared with the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the US aid to Israel is more desperate. Active F-4 fighter jets have been altered to fly directly to the battlefield, C-5 transport aircraft fly tank ammunition day and night, and pilots even participate in the war.
Israel fought back in the Golan Heights and Sinai Peninsula, and U.S. aid continued to supply, reversing the tide of the war. Aid to Ukraine is like dragging time and consuming Russian resources, rather than trying its best to help win. Ukrainian cities are full of ruins, population outflows, soldiers stick to trenches, conflicts are unresolved, and Russia's economy is under pressure, but the red lines of the five permanent members remain monolithic.
After the missile crisis, Kennedy pushed for the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and in 1963 established a hotline with the Soviet Union to avoid miscalculation, but the crisis also reminded everyone that human life is like a mustard in the game of great powers. Russia and Ukraine have dragged on until now. In August 2025, Russia advanced in Donetsk, and Ukraine counterattacked Kursk, which cost both sides a lot.
History is always repeating itself. The security interests of the five permanent members are paramount. Small countries survive through the cracks, and the slightest carelessness will become chess pieces. Think about those ordinary families whose lives have been shattered because red lines have been touched, lost loved ones, and their lives have been shattered. They always feel that international rules should be more humane, but in a world where strength speaks, who really cares? Perhaps only when more people understand these things can there be a turning point.