The third round of trade negotiations between China and the United States has come to an end, and the two sides have reached an agreement to extend it for 90 days. Next China and the United States will usher in a new round of negotiations. Recently, Trump has put forward new demands on China.How will China respond?

Before the negotiations, 27 countries were first "kneeling down".What the hell is going on?

U.S. Paper Agreement: 27 Countries can¡¯t actually compromise

At the juncture when China and the United States are about to sit down to talk about trade, the United States and the European Union first made a noise-on the 21st of this month,They issued a joint statement called the Framework for Reciprocal, Fair and Balanced Trade Agreements, which put the 27 countries of the European Union on fire again.

The agreement is clearly written.The EU is simply saying that it will no longer levy taxes on all industrial products in the United States in the future, and it also specifically gives the green light to agricultural products such as seafood, milk, and soybean oil in the United States.Make it easier for them to enter the European market.

But what about the United States? It is said that most goods in the European Union continue to be subject to tariffs of up to 15%, such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other key things.

As soon as this agreement was announced, there was a quarrel within Europe. Some officials who used to work in the EU directly said, "This is a scary and complete admission of defeat."After all, the two sides didn¡¯t make any mutually beneficial concessions ¡ª the EU gave zero tariffs on U.S. industrial goods, in exchange for U.S. 15% tariffs.

What makes European countries even more angry is that there are additional conditions:The EU will have to spend $7500 billion on U.S. liquefied natural gas and nuclear products by 2028, $40 billion on U.S. AI chips, and even more on U.S. military equipment.¡£

Like French wine, Italian spirits, these things that could have earned a lot of money, were not put on the list of tax cuts, so that the French government directly said "we must protect our good agriculture."

Why can such an unfair agreement be passed? In fact, the 27 countries of the European Union have their own minds to compete in it. Germany, which relies on industry to eat, wants to use this agreement to open up the US market; but Spanish vintners and French dairy farmers have to face the impact of American agricultural products rushing in.

Europe has a mindset.Although this agreement can avoid a tariff war with the United States and save almost 5 million jobs, in the long run, the EU will only become increasingly dependent on the U.S. economy.Interestingly, the agreement also specifically states that the EU must abide by the rule of "no technology leakage" when buying American AI chips. Anyone with a discerning eye will know at a glance that this is helping the United States block China's technical neck.

Trump in the middle of the night: want to take this as a negotiation code, but China did not accept

The United States and Europe are still busy signing the agreement, and Trump has screamed to China on social media.The president posted most of the night, saying that China would buy more U.S. soybeans, and even the lion called for China to triple its soybean orders, adding that this would ¡°reduced the trade deficit.¡±

But what he said sounds like taking medicine in a hurry. Look at the actual situation-Chinese buyers have not ordered a shipment of soybeans for the new season in the United States until now, which is the latest since 2005.

The bitterness in the hearts of American soybean farmers has long been hidden. According to the US Department of Agriculture, by the week of July 31, the amount of US soybeans sold to China was almost zero.2024/25 year, although the total export inspection volume was a little more than last year, it was supported by other countries' purchases.

What's worse is that China is the world's largest soybean buyer and has long determined the supply of goods in South America-8 million tons will be shipped from South America in September, and 4 million tons will be waiting to be shipped in October. In contrast, the golden period for soybean sales in the United States is almost over, but there are more and more soybeans in the warehouse.

Trump may have forgotten that he used fentanyl as an excuse to impose tariffs on China. As a result, China directly added a 10% tax on U.S. soybeans.In 2024, China will buy a total of 105 million tons of soybeans. The 22 million tons bought from the United States are 5.7% less than last year, but the 74.65 million tons bought from Brazil are 6.7% more.

Now he wants China to triple its orders, which means that China has to buy nearly 90 million tons of soybeans from the United States, almost squeezing out all the market share of South American soybeans. This is simply unrealistic.Some analysts directly said that China may not "completely buy" American soybeans this year, Trump said earlier "fast deal", estimated to be yellow.

Trump does not come to the parade but urges orders: the Sino-U.S. trade initiative has changed early

Trump has not even come to the Chinese parade, but a glance at the soybeans order, this is actually a small abbreviation of the Sino-U.S. trade to the wrist.The U.S. wants to pull the EU into a small circle and form a ¡°trade circle¡± ¨C the EU¡¯s abolition of U.S. industrial tariffs is equivalent to paving the way for U.S. manufacturing; but the U.S. continues to charge the EU¡¯s 15% tariffs, hanging Europe¡¯s neck.

This combination of fists obviously wanted to gain more confidence before negotiating with China. But they didn't count that China had already adjusted its supply chain in advance and took the initiative in its own hands.

China is so ¡°cold¡± with U.S. soybeans, it is not random.From ordering South American soybeans in advance to buying more from countries such as Brazil and Argentina, China has taken practical actions to tell the United States that if the Chinese market is lost, American farmers will not be able to bear it.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has data.By the week of July 17, U.S. soybean export inspections had increased by 141% compared to the previous week, but none were sold to China, and the quality of soybeans did not meet market expectations.This shows that no matter how loudly Trump shouts, without the support of China orders, U.S. soybean prices and sales will collapse sooner or later.

More importantly, those small moves against China in the U.S.-European agreement expose their concern.When the EU buys American chips, it is necessary to prevent "technology leakage". To put it bluntly, it is afraid that China will get advanced technology; Spending a lot of money on American energy and military products turns economic matters into political matters.

But China doesn't eat this set at all. While beating the United States with soybean orders, it continues to find more countries as trading partners. After all, in global trade, whoever controls the market has the weight to speak. The United States wants to pressure China to make concessions, and this time I am afraid it will be disappointed again.

Now Sino-US trade is like a tug-of-war. The United States is pulling the European Union into a small group and wants to use tariffs and technical barriers to force China to bow. However, China has already laid out and adjusted its supply chain and optimized the sources of imports early, and found a solution.

Whether it¡¯s Trump¡¯s soya order or the US-EU deal, it¡¯s all about trying to seize the dominance of trade. But the market has its own rules, who can stabilize supply, who can respect partners, who can stand firm in global trade.

Source of information:

Trump expects China to triple soya orders, foreign ministry responds

International Online: Deep observation: Is this an "agreement" or a "loss control document" of the EU?