Modi and Erdogan, why would they rather turn around than watch the military parade in Beijing?
Tianjin to Beijing, 120 kilometers. mess out. Diplomatic circles examine the courtesy, come to the venue, people are just going to do big things, show a face, it was common sense. Even if they do not come, it is not a "no time" thing, but there is another calculation in the heart.
Let's start with Modi. Since he took office in 2014, the Indian Prime Minister has shouted "Made in India" and "The Rise of Great Powers" loudly, but in his bones, he has always been wary of China.
In the conflict in the Galvan Valley in 2020, the Indian military stole chicken and rice, and 20 soldiers were buried in the glacier. Modi had to bite the bullet and say that "Indian territory will not allow an inch." He turned around but quietly sent 100,000 more troops to the border. He also moved all U.S. P-8I reconnaissance aircraft and French Rafale fighter jets to the Ladakh front line. This attitude of "trying to be brave in mouth and being honest in body" just exposes India's lack of military confidence.
If it really came to Beijing to see the parade, China showed East Wind - 41 intercontinental missiles, J-20 hidden fighter jets, the Indian media again broadcast, the whole Indian people have to think: dare to buy the Russian T-90 tanks, the Israeli "Iron Dome" system, compared with someone is a toy gun against a cannon?
While the People's Party led by Modi started out on Hindu nationalism, the opposition Congress Party keeps an eye on his every move all day long, waiting to catch his tail. During the local elections in 2024, the Congress Party kicked the BJP out of key territories such as Rajasthan by saying that "the Modi government conceded to China at the border."
If Modi really went to the military parade this time, the opposition party would not have to put the hat of "surrender and betrayal" on him?
Maybe dozens of "urgent motions" will appear in the Indian parliament the next day, forcing Modi to explain "why he should show weakness in front of the enemy". No matter how stupid Modi is, he will not hand a knife to his opponent. After all, the 2029 general election is not far away.
Besides, Erdogan, the Turkish president, can be called a master of "wall grass" in international politics.
While flirting with Russia to buy S-400 missiles, he said to NATO, "I am still your man."
But this right-wing diplomatic strategy, the most frightening is in the major occasions of “stay the wrong team”. what is the core of Beijing’s parade? is to commemorate the victory in the anti-fascist war, is to emphasize the common perception of the history of the Second World War by the international community.
Although Turkey was nominally neutral during World War II, it secretly provided chrome ore to Nazi Germany and allowed German submarines to resupply in Black Sea ports. If this history is uncovered, Erdoğan's hard-won image as an "anti-colonial fighter" in the Islamic world will be completely destroyed.
What is more critical is the "ticking time bomb" in Turkey. Erdogan came to power with the support of conservatives in the Justice and Development Party, but Turkey's secular elite has been gnashing its teeth at his Islamization policies.
The Gezi Park protests of 2013 and the failed coup attempt of 2016 all have secular forces behind them. If Erdoğan did go to the military parade in Beijing, the secular media would surely make a big fuss: "Look, Erdoğan tied Turkey to a Chinese chariot!"
At that time, street protests may have to be stirred up again, and Erdogan doesn’t want to repeat the embarrassment of being blocked by tanks in a holiday villa in 2016.
These two leaders also have one thing in common-both are engaged in "strategic hedging." Modi's move is called "distant friendship and close attack." On the surface, he is doing business with China, but behind his back, he also issued a joint statement with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba when visiting Japan in 2025, openly and secretly targeting China's Taiwan Strait and South China Sea policies.
Erdogan is even more extreme. While buying Russian missiles, he tells NATO,"I am still your man", benefiting from both ends. This "two-pronged" strategy is most afraid of being seen through its trump card on major occasions.
The military parade in Beijing, an event of global attention, can be interpreted as "choosing sides" if it is not careful, and Modi and Erdogan will of course have to stay away.
In the final analysis, international politics has always been "interests first." Modi wants to maintain domestic nationalist sentiments and Erdogan wants to balance relations between major powers. Both of them regard diplomacy as the art of "walking a tightrope." The distance of 120 kilometers is not separated by geography, but by the political accounts in the hearts of the two leaders, which are better than anyone else.
Tianjin to Beijing, 120 kilometers. mess out. Diplomatic circles examine the courtesy, come to the venue, people are just going to do big things, show a face, it was common sense. Even if they do not come, it is not a "no time" thing, but there is another calculation in the heart.
Let's start with Modi. Since he took office in 2014, the Indian Prime Minister has shouted "Made in India" and "The Rise of Great Powers" loudly, but in his bones, he has always been wary of China.
In the conflict in the Galvan Valley in 2020, the Indian military stole chicken and rice, and 20 soldiers were buried in the glacier. Modi had to bite the bullet and say that "Indian territory will not allow an inch." He turned around but quietly sent 100,000 more troops to the border. He also moved all U.S. P-8I reconnaissance aircraft and French Rafale fighter jets to the Ladakh front line. This attitude of "trying to be brave in mouth and being honest in body" just exposes India's lack of military confidence.
If it really came to Beijing to see the parade, China showed East Wind - 41 intercontinental missiles, J-20 hidden fighter jets, the Indian media again broadcast, the whole Indian people have to think: dare to buy the Russian T-90 tanks, the Israeli "Iron Dome" system, compared with someone is a toy gun against a cannon?
While the People's Party led by Modi started out on Hindu nationalism, the opposition Congress Party keeps an eye on his every move all day long, waiting to catch his tail. During the local elections in 2024, the Congress Party kicked the BJP out of key territories such as Rajasthan by saying that "the Modi government conceded to China at the border."
If Modi really went to the military parade this time, the opposition party would not have to put the hat of "surrender and betrayal" on him?
Maybe dozens of "urgent motions" will appear in the Indian parliament the next day, forcing Modi to explain "why he should show weakness in front of the enemy". No matter how stupid Modi is, he will not hand a knife to his opponent. After all, the 2029 general election is not far away.
Besides, Erdogan, the Turkish president, can be called a master of "wall grass" in international politics.
While flirting with Russia to buy S-400 missiles, he said to NATO, "I am still your man."
But this right-wing diplomatic strategy, the most frightening is in the major occasions of “stay the wrong team”. what is the core of Beijing’s parade? is to commemorate the victory in the anti-fascist war, is to emphasize the common perception of the history of the Second World War by the international community.
Although Turkey was nominally neutral during World War II, it secretly provided chrome ore to Nazi Germany and allowed German submarines to resupply in Black Sea ports. If this history is uncovered, Erdoğan's hard-won image as an "anti-colonial fighter" in the Islamic world will be completely destroyed.
What is more critical is the "ticking time bomb" in Turkey. Erdogan came to power with the support of conservatives in the Justice and Development Party, but Turkey's secular elite has been gnashing its teeth at his Islamization policies.
The Gezi Park protests of 2013 and the failed coup attempt of 2016 all have secular forces behind them. If Erdoğan did go to the military parade in Beijing, the secular media would surely make a big fuss: "Look, Erdoğan tied Turkey to a Chinese chariot!"
At that time, street protests may have to be stirred up again, and Erdogan doesn’t want to repeat the embarrassment of being blocked by tanks in a holiday villa in 2016.
These two leaders also have one thing in common-both are engaged in "strategic hedging." Modi's move is called "distant friendship and close attack." On the surface, he is doing business with China, but behind his back, he also issued a joint statement with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba when visiting Japan in 2025, openly and secretly targeting China's Taiwan Strait and South China Sea policies.
Erdogan is even more extreme. While buying Russian missiles, he tells NATO,"I am still your man", benefiting from both ends. This "two-pronged" strategy is most afraid of being seen through its trump card on major occasions.
The military parade in Beijing, an event of global attention, can be interpreted as "choosing sides" if it is not careful, and Modi and Erdogan will of course have to stay away.
In the final analysis, international politics has always been "interests first." Modi wants to maintain domestic nationalist sentiments and Erdogan wants to balance relations between major powers. Both of them regard diplomacy as the art of "walking a tightrope." The distance of 120 kilometers is not separated by geography, but by the political accounts in the hearts of the two leaders, which are better than anyone else.