Ukraine had just passed its 34th Independence Day, and Zelensky said he had received a congratulatory letter from the Chinese leader. Bloomberg quickly asked the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Chinese side replied with a chewy remark: "Develop friendly relations with other countries in the world based on the principle of mutual respect and win-win cooperation".
In fact, the focus of this congratulatory letter is not on the word "congratulations", but on the "letter" itself. On the surface, he wishes others a happy National Day, but on the bottom, he wants to explain clearly to each other the boundaries of China-Uzbekistan relations and what they can do in the future. Look at the congratulatory letters of those Western leaders. Without exception, they all clearly wrote "supporting Ukraine in confronting Russia." This is both a gesture and a campaign for public opinion. But our side is different. From beginning to end, we talked about "traditional friendship" and "future cooperation", and we didn't mention a word about the Russia-Ukraine War.
Diplomatic texts pay attention to this point: sometimes what is not written is more important than what is written. This congratulatory letter is tantamount to taking China-Uzbekistan relations out of the "war talk" and treating them simply as bilateral relations between the two countries - not taking sides and not adding fire to public opinion.
Some time ago, didn't Zelensky say that he would not regard China as a potential security guarantor? The reason was that China did not stop the war when it started and even sold drones to Russia. This statement has been widely spread in many media, but you can see that the caliber of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has always been very stable: our position is "objective and fair" and we are willing to help solve problems by political means. This is either an excuse, or a word is put here: we are neutral, and we just want to persuade both sides to cease fire and talk, and not get involved in any "proxy war".
At this time, the letter of congratulations is actually the most gentle way to convey the words: we respect the sovereignty of Ukraine, we also acknowledge your current government; we will not simply include you in the relations between China and Russia; those labels that you previously placed on China, may need to change.
Some people must ask: what is the reason for sending this congratulatory letter? For us, there is only one word - stable. We must first stabilize the diplomatic channels with Ukraine, then keep the possible ways of cooperation after the war, and more importantly, maintain our neutral image on the Russian-Ukrainian issue. The outside world always likes to tie China and Russia together and say that the reason is random, but diplomacy is not a social media label, it is not that simple. There will always be an end to the war, but the relationship between countries has a long way to go. The congratulatory letter looks soft, but it is actually to leave a way out for the future - as long as the relationship between the two sides is not broken, even if there is only a thin thread left, cooperation can still be picked up when there is a political opportunity.
For Ukraine, it is not for us to help whoever, it is to let it have more options.Now Russia is struggling, maybe when can we talk again, then who can talk to Moscow, Kiev, who can be a buffer.
Some people may think: Western leaders are shouting high-profile support for Ukraine, but we avoid talking about war. Will it seem too cold? It really isn't. How sensitive the anniversary is at this time. Cooling down is much more responsible than arching fire. Write the battlefield words into a courtesy letter, and at most, it will be applauded by public opinion for a few days, but the price will be to make the opposition between the two sides even more deadly. Let's put pen and ink on past friendship and future cooperation, which is in line with diplomatic rules, and we don't say anything irritating-politeness is polite, and we don't boo with others; Respect belongs to respect and not be led away. This is the calmness that a big country should have.
Looking at the Russian side, Lavrov said that he wants China and other Security Council countries to guarantee, which is more of a signal: we have the intention to negotiate. But he then said that he does not recognize Zelensky's legitimacy and does not want to engage in that kind of "joint photo and diplomacy." Put these two words together to understand: Moscow is not ready to recognize Kiev politically, but it is willing to relax on the security plan.
Kiev does not regard China as a guarantor, it has its own judgment about our role and wants to stick to the negotiation code. but the problem is that you refuse not a name, it is a possible useful way.
There is also a practical situation: the news that Putin is going to visit China is very popular, and we will definitely have to talk about Russia and Ukraine at that time. Let's offer an olive branch to Ukraine at this time, not only to find a balance, but also to find out the situation - to see what Kiev cares most about, what the common people can accept, and how we can help. Mediation is not just about saying "I do", it has to be paved step by step. It is like building a bridge, laying the piers first, and when something really happens, the bridge will not be washed down.
Russia's view of Zelensky will not change in the short term, and negotiations will have to be followed, but the other chairs can be filled with people, all to see if you have patience, will not come to work.
From the perspective of Ukraine, this congratulatory letter actually has many political benefits. Externally, it can demonstrate its diplomatic autonomy and not push China completely to the opposite side; internally, it can also send a soft signal, indicating that not all roads have been blocked. More importantly, the issue of post-war reconstruction is now being considered in the policy circle. Infrastructure, energy, electricity, transportation, and communications are all strengths of China companies.
Everyone understands that rebuilding is not about shouting slogans, it has to be done with real money - the steel and cement have to be shipped to the construction site, the money has to be collected, and the supply chain has to be turned around. If the people who can work are driven away because of anger now, the cost will only be greater when it is really rebuilt. Some people worry about security risks and political conditions. These can be discussed, but the most terrifying thing is not to even talk about them.
Of course, there is no confusion between China and Ukraine, for example, some Chinese enterprises are restricted and sanctioned, these are not a letter of congratulations that can be solved. If Kiev really wants to cooperate with China and remove those unreasonable restrictions, it is real. Political sincerity, it must be counted on the actual policy. We also understand that Ukraine is at war, making decisions is not easy, but also hope not to take "ideology" to say things, delay the actual cooperation.
There is another point that is often misunderstood: many people think that "neutrality" means "indifference" and "not talking about war" means "just wanting to protect themselves". Actually, that's not the case at all. Neutrality is not about muddle, let alone doing nothing. It is about putting your efforts into places that can solve problems, and don't let conflicts become unable to be cleaned up. What we have been talking about "ceasefire and stop war-start peace talks-rebuild trust" is to break down the goal into something that can be done step by step. There must be a verifiable way to cease fire, and someone must guarantee it; Peace talks must have topics acceptable to both sides; Economic and security arrangements are needed to rebuild trust. Every step is indispensable for a third-party network that can "thread the needle". This congratulatory letter is a summary of this network-it looks small, but its role is not small.
Russia and Ukraine have been fighting for four years, and they are fighting and talking sometimes, but there is no accuracy. The international order is also slowly changing in this tug-of-war, and the new concept of security and development cannot be shouted out by shouting slogans. Whoever can turn the security concept of "common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable" into a set of measures that can be implemented will have more say in the next order adjustment. This is not to "win" anything false, but to see who can actually build the system. What China wants to do is to "give plans", not "pick emotions". Congratulatory letters may not be stimulating enough, but stimulation never solves the problem.
Finally, I would like to be honest with Kiev: post-war reconstruction was not the Marshall Plan of that year, nor was it a "promise" that some countries casually talked about in the media. If you really want to land, you have to engage in bidding, calculate the delivery time, manage the construction period, and assess risks-these are all real work. The capabilities of Chinese companies in infrastructure and energy fields have been screened out by the market for decades. If such a working partner is driven away for the sake of temporary public opinion, the price will slowly become apparent in the next ten years-there will be no big problems at once, but it will always suffer losses.