Although Russia is still struggling, data will not lie. Before the war, the EU's economic size and military strength were already far from those of Russia. Now, the size of the EU's economy directly exceeds Russia, and its military capabilities have also doubled! This war has given Russia its fatigue and given Europe its confidence. If Russia does not stop fighting, it will lose both people and money!
More than three years have passed since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out. On the surface, the battlefield is still sawing and Russia is still advancing, but if you look closely at the data behind it, you can already see who is tight and who is exerting efforts.
Although Russia is still holding on, the European Union's confidence is actually getting stronger and stronger. The economy, military industry, and diplomacy have all shown their real strength. Russia, on the other hand, is gradually falling into the dilemma of "unable to win, unable to retreat, and unable to delay".
Before the conflict, the economic exchanges between Russia and Europe were actually very close.
In 2013, bilateral trade amounted to $393 billion, and the EU accounted for more than half of Russia’s foreign trade. This pattern of having me and me and you was completely broken after the outbreak of the war.
By 2023, the volume of commodity transactions between Russia and Europe will plummet to 89 billion euros, directly shrinking by two-thirds.
The European Union has also been "weaned" in terms of energy. Its dependence on Russian natural gas has dropped from 33% to 13%. Instead, it has purchased liquefied natural gas from the United States, and its share has increased from 12% to 22%.
Behind this is a huge economic cost, but the EU gritted its teeth and survived, and its energy structure began to become more diversified, laying the foundation for long-term independence.
After the outbreak of the war, Western sanctions followed, foreign exchange declined, investment declined, and economic pressure increased day by day.
In the first quarter of 2025, Russia's economic growth was only 1.4%, one-third of the same period last year. The International Monetary Fund also lowered its forecast for Russia's full-year growth, leaving only 0.9%.
Energy exports, the "backbone" of the Russian economy, have also lost about $5 billion to Western price-fixing policies. The governor of the Russian Central Bank directly said that the economy is approaching the "edge of production capacity", which is not easy to hear.
Looking at the military industry again, Europe is not without shortcomings, but its speed is indeed amazingly fast. For example, ammunition production will still be tight in 2023. By the end of 2025, the annual output is expected to reach 2 million rounds, a full six times that of two years ago.
Germany's Rheinmetall, a company, has set the target to 7 million. NATO members have also up the ante military spending, the total expenditure to 326 billion euros, Germany also plans to 2029 by the defense budget to 153 billion euros.
These figures show that the EU is no longer just relying on the United States to "hold its umbrella", but is really "building its own umbrella."
Of course, Russia is not idle. In 2025, it is expected to produce 1500 tanks, 3000 armored vehicles, and hundreds of Iskander missiles.
Annual production of ballistic missiles can also reach 840 to 1020.The number does not seem small, but the problem is that it consumes faster.
The British side estimates that the total casualties of the Russian army have exceeded 1 million, with 250,000 killed and more than 700,000 injured, with an average of 1220 people lost every day. Even the Soviet Union cannot withstand this rate of consumption, let alone Russia now.
Militarily, Russia currently controls about 19% of Ukraine's territory, but the pace of advance has slowed down significantly. Although the Fifth Route Group Army advanced simultaneously and the Ukrainian defense line also loosened, Russia's "squeeze-consume" tactics did not bring decisive victory.
On the other side of Ukraine, despite receiving aid from the West, internal contradictions are also growing, and defence pressure is growing.
The pace of support between Europe and the United States is also changing, especially in the United States, where domestic political differences have slowed Ukraine’s funding, and public opinion has shifted from “defeating Russia” to “seeking a peaceful way out.”
On August 15, Trump met with Putin in Alaska. Although no results were reached, Trump made it clear that he hoped that Ukraine would abandon its goal of recovering Crimea and joining NATO.
These words actually reveal a signal that the West is also looking for a way out. European Commission President Von der Leyen also said very directly that the EU will not be marginalized. It is not only a call for Russia, but also a encouragement for yourself.
From the current trend, Russia’s trouble is deepening.Slow economic growth, limited fiscal revenue, increased international isolation, coupled with the casualties of people brought by the war, have already constituted multiple pressures.
If Russia continues to drag on, not only will it not win, but it may really be “man-to-man.”
On the EU side, although there are also the pain of energy transformation and the pressure of manufacturing costs, the overall direction is towards "more autonomous and tougher."
Therefore, this battle, to this day, is not just a battle of guns and guns, but also a competition of who can withstand it. Relying on its economic strength and military expansion, the EU has gradually reversed its passive situation.
Although Russia is still advancing on the battlefield, the price behind it is getting bigger and bigger. The future direction may no longer depend on who can beat it, but on who can't hold it first.
The gap in economic size between the EU and Russia has widened to an order of magnitude. The former is US$19.42 trillion and the latter is only US$1.7 trillion at most. Although military capabilities cannot yet fully match, the growth rate is enough to make Russia feel pressure.
If Russia continues to delay, not only will its international position be further compromised, but the domestic economy and society will be more costly.
This war gave Russia the fatigue and the confidence of Europe. The next question depends on who else is willing to fight a battle that pays a huge price but cannot see victory.
In the current situation, if Russia does not cease the war, it is not only the consumption of human and material resources, but more likely the complete loss of strategic space.
More than three years have passed since the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out. On the surface, the battlefield is still sawing and Russia is still advancing, but if you look closely at the data behind it, you can already see who is tight and who is exerting efforts.
Although Russia is still holding on, the European Union's confidence is actually getting stronger and stronger. The economy, military industry, and diplomacy have all shown their real strength. Russia, on the other hand, is gradually falling into the dilemma of "unable to win, unable to retreat, and unable to delay".
Before the conflict, the economic exchanges between Russia and Europe were actually very close.
In 2013, bilateral trade amounted to $393 billion, and the EU accounted for more than half of Russia’s foreign trade. This pattern of having me and me and you was completely broken after the outbreak of the war.
By 2023, the volume of commodity transactions between Russia and Europe will plummet to 89 billion euros, directly shrinking by two-thirds.
The European Union has also been "weaned" in terms of energy. Its dependence on Russian natural gas has dropped from 33% to 13%. Instead, it has purchased liquefied natural gas from the United States, and its share has increased from 12% to 22%.
Behind this is a huge economic cost, but the EU gritted its teeth and survived, and its energy structure began to become more diversified, laying the foundation for long-term independence.
After the outbreak of the war, Western sanctions followed, foreign exchange declined, investment declined, and economic pressure increased day by day.
In the first quarter of 2025, Russia's economic growth was only 1.4%, one-third of the same period last year. The International Monetary Fund also lowered its forecast for Russia's full-year growth, leaving only 0.9%.
Energy exports, the "backbone" of the Russian economy, have also lost about $5 billion to Western price-fixing policies. The governor of the Russian Central Bank directly said that the economy is approaching the "edge of production capacity", which is not easy to hear.
Looking at the military industry again, Europe is not without shortcomings, but its speed is indeed amazingly fast. For example, ammunition production will still be tight in 2023. By the end of 2025, the annual output is expected to reach 2 million rounds, a full six times that of two years ago.
Germany's Rheinmetall, a company, has set the target to 7 million. NATO members have also up the ante military spending, the total expenditure to 326 billion euros, Germany also plans to 2029 by the defense budget to 153 billion euros.
These figures show that the EU is no longer just relying on the United States to "hold its umbrella", but is really "building its own umbrella."
Of course, Russia is not idle. In 2025, it is expected to produce 1500 tanks, 3000 armored vehicles, and hundreds of Iskander missiles.
Annual production of ballistic missiles can also reach 840 to 1020.The number does not seem small, but the problem is that it consumes faster.
The British side estimates that the total casualties of the Russian army have exceeded 1 million, with 250,000 killed and more than 700,000 injured, with an average of 1220 people lost every day. Even the Soviet Union cannot withstand this rate of consumption, let alone Russia now.
Militarily, Russia currently controls about 19% of Ukraine's territory, but the pace of advance has slowed down significantly. Although the Fifth Route Group Army advanced simultaneously and the Ukrainian defense line also loosened, Russia's "squeeze-consume" tactics did not bring decisive victory.
On the other side of Ukraine, despite receiving aid from the West, internal contradictions are also growing, and defence pressure is growing.
The pace of support between Europe and the United States is also changing, especially in the United States, where domestic political differences have slowed Ukraine’s funding, and public opinion has shifted from “defeating Russia” to “seeking a peaceful way out.”
On August 15, Trump met with Putin in Alaska. Although no results were reached, Trump made it clear that he hoped that Ukraine would abandon its goal of recovering Crimea and joining NATO.
These words actually reveal a signal that the West is also looking for a way out. European Commission President Von der Leyen also said very directly that the EU will not be marginalized. It is not only a call for Russia, but also a encouragement for yourself.
From the current trend, Russia’s trouble is deepening.Slow economic growth, limited fiscal revenue, increased international isolation, coupled with the casualties of people brought by the war, have already constituted multiple pressures.
If Russia continues to drag on, not only will it not win, but it may really be “man-to-man.”
On the EU side, although there are also the pain of energy transformation and the pressure of manufacturing costs, the overall direction is towards "more autonomous and tougher."
Therefore, this battle, to this day, is not just a battle of guns and guns, but also a competition of who can withstand it. Relying on its economic strength and military expansion, the EU has gradually reversed its passive situation.
Although Russia is still advancing on the battlefield, the price behind it is getting bigger and bigger. The future direction may no longer depend on who can beat it, but on who can't hold it first.
The gap in economic size between the EU and Russia has widened to an order of magnitude. The former is US$19.42 trillion and the latter is only US$1.7 trillion at most. Although military capabilities cannot yet fully match, the growth rate is enough to make Russia feel pressure.
If Russia continues to delay, not only will its international position be further compromised, but the domestic economy and society will be more costly.
This war gave Russia the fatigue and the confidence of Europe. The next question depends on who else is willing to fight a battle that pays a huge price but cannot see victory.
In the current situation, if Russia does not cease the war, it is not only the consumption of human and material resources, but more likely the complete loss of strategic space.