Today we will focus on the first briefing: “Nearly three years after the North Stream pipeline explosion, the German investigative agency announced the identification of the suspect and issued an arrest warrant for six Ukrainian citizens.
The Nord Stream pipeline is one of the largest and most important natural gas transmission systems in the world. It is led by Gazprom and is designed to directly transport Russian natural gas through the Baltic Sea to Germany and further distribute it to other European countries. To avoid over-reliance on traditional onshore pipelines through Eastern European countries such as Ukraine, thereby improving the security and stability of Russian energy transmission.
In September 2022, about half a year after a new round of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Haitian pipelines of Line 1 and Line 2 of the Nord Stream project exploded on the same day. There were various signs that it was a deliberate detonation. As winter approached, the Nord Stream pipeline The destruction directly affected Europeans' surviving the winter, and the incident immediately became a geopolitical focus.
The country first suspected was Germany. Although Germany is the main partner in the Nord Stream project, it is believed to have a vested interest in cutting off dependence on Russian energy. That is, Germany may realize the risks of over-reliance on Russian natural gas and strengthen its determination to transition to renewable energy. As the investigation unfolded, some people began to speculate that Germany might have colluded, especially after the outbreak of a new round of conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and political pressure within Europe to contain Russia's influence was increasing. In this context, Germany secretly took actions to cooperate with this political offensive. However, Germany firmly denied its involvement in the incident and repeatedly stated that it had nothing to do with the explosion.
At the same time, the United States has also become a key object of suspicion, and there are signs that the United States has long been opposed to the North Stream project, adding Line 2, believing that the project would make Europe overly dependent on Russian natural gas, thereby letting Moscow get too much political encryption. President Biden had publicly stated that if Russia acted on Ukraine, "North Stream 2 will not move forward." This prompted some analysts to believe that by destroying these pipelines, the United States could effectively weaken Russia's influence in Europe and strengthen its position in the European energy market. Especially US LNG exports would increase dramatically, becoming Europe's main alternative supplier. Similarly, the U.S. government has always denied any association with the North Stream disruption.
On the Russian side, Moscow’s official stance after the explosions was that the attack was a “terrorist act” planned by the West to disrupt the stability of European energy supplies and aimed at separating European countries from Russia. Russian officials pointed out that the pipeline, as a key component of Russian energy diplomacy, is of important strategic importance, which is precisely why the West wants to disrupt it and head straight to the United States.
However, Russia itself has also become the subject of suspicion in this incident. One of the most prevalent arguments is that Moscow may consider disrupting these pipelines to be a means of harming the European economy, disrupting its energy supplies and putting pressure on the West. Forcing European countries to rethink their relations with Russia, especially in the coming winter, to reflect on the importance of Russia as an energy supplier, in order to influence the position of European nations on the issue of the war in Ukraine.
Poland was also suspected because of its long-standing opposition to the Nord Stream pipeline and its repeated public statements that the pipeline would make Europe too dependent on Russia. Polish President Duda has made it clear that the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline is a "threat to European security", so some analysts believe that Poland has an incentive to do so.
To put it bluntly, the voice of pointing suspicions at Ukraine is much quieter. From the perspective of motivation, at least I think Ukraine is second only to the United States. Ukraine has publicly expressed its opposition to the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline many times, believing that this project will further intensify Russia's economic and political power's ability to control Europe, at least the possibility of starting will reach the level of Poland. The reason for this situation is probably that it still falls on the battlefield of international public opinion. At present, international public opinion is basically dominated by the West.
Since the outbreak of the new round of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine has been a close ally in the Western world. The United States and Europe have generally supported Ukraine's military operations and provided assistance to it. In this context, turning the focus of suspicion on Ukraine could have a detrimental impact on the legitimacy of its own war. Ukraine's international reputation will also suffer, and the resistance of Western countries to support it will be greater. Therefore, the Ukrainian government and Western allies have great incentives to rule this possibility out to avoid unnecessary political risks.
Sweden and Denmark have played key roles in the investigation of the incident as the latest countries at the site of the explosion. Both countries are involved in the safety maintenance and evidence collection of the damaged pipeline and work closely with the EU investigation team. But similar practices have been taken by Sweden and Denmark, where Swedish authorities initially discovered explosion traces along the pipeline but did not immediately attribute it to specific national actors. Denmark has also remained cautious in its public statement, urging the international community to avoid rushing conclusions before a thorough investigation is completed.
Three years have passed, by Trump’s vigorous mediation of a ceasefire, and Zelensky’s expression of willingness to make a proper compromise for peace talks, which should have resulted in a final ceasefire for Russia. About ten days ago, Italian police announced the arrest of a Ukrainian man suspected of being the coordinator of the destruction of the North Stream Pipeline. Then the German judicial authorities succeeded in confirming all the members of the suspected group involved in the explosions, the group consisting of seven Ukrainians, because one had died in the war in the western battlefield last year, so the German side issued only six international arrests (currently communicating with Italy to extradite the suspects arrested by the Italian police). And some of them appear to be in Ukraine, the attitude of the