On the afternoon of August 27th, the Philippines suddenly made a concession near Renai Reef in the South China Sea. Just a few days ago, the Philippines continued to release tough signals to create an atmosphere that was about to forcibly attack Renai Reef.

However, when the real confrontation approached the critical point, the Philippine ships turned around and left one by one. Why?

Just a few days ago, the Philippine government and the media were also rampantly rendering a ¡°unprecedented¡± operation, claiming to break the Chinese blockade and deliver urgent supplies for the ¡°Madeira Mountain¡± warships on the beach.

The Philippine Coast Guard mobilized two main ships, the BRP Melchora Aquino and the BRP Bagacay, which are known as the Philippines' "ace cards" and are equipped with advanced radar and communication equipment. In addition, coast guard ships, fishery administration ships, supply ships and patrol boats were dispatched together, and the team was large.

Philippine public opinion even called this operation "multi-point linkage", with the intention of causing chaos by mobilizing ships in different directions at the same time, so that the Chinese side could not intercept them all. Some media even played up that this would be "a key battle to change the situation on Ren'ai Shoal."

However, the reality changed dramatically over time, with AIS ship signals showing that on the afternoon of the 27th, the BRP Melchora Aquino dropped first and sailed into the Seoul Sea through the Barrabac Strait, while another BRP Bagacay landed at the port of Brilluan.

Then, before 21:00 pm, all Philippine ships near Ren'ai Shoal, whether coast guard ships, supply ships, or even fishery administration and patrol boats, all withdrew from the relevant waters and returned to the Philippine mainland port.

An enormous action ended this way.

The retreat of the Philippines was not a accidental mistake, but an inevitable choice under multiple considerations.

The most direct reason is the force hanging, around the Yinjiang Reef, the Chinese side has deployed at least five large marine police ships, combined with nine steel shell fishing vessels and eleven assault boats and rigid air-filled boats, forming a strict defense and mobility grid.

These ships are not only huge in scale, but also well armed. Philippine media quoted witnesses as saying that the machine guns on the decks of Chinese ships are in a ready state, showing a tough stance. In this comparison, several patrol ships and supply ships in the Philippines have almost no possibility of breakthrough.

Moreover, once the Philippines forcibly breaks through and encounters a collision, the consequences may far exceed the scope of the Manila authorities. Even with the support of the United States, Japan and other allies in public opinion, the real responsibility will still be the Philippines itself. Manila must consider: If the situation gets out of control, will it trigger unpredictable military frictions? Is the country able to bear losses?

In addition, there is no consensus within the Philippine military on the operation, and according to Philippine media reports, the military's top level is not unanimous in favour of the adventurous operation.

Some of the Eagle officers insisted that "the Reef must be preserved" as a matter of "national dignity" in the Philippines, but more officers were cautious, pointing out that supply is important, but no win-win hard breakthrough will only cause greater losses, and ultimately, the government chose to retreat in fierce controversy.

A former Philippine naval officer bluntly said in an interview: "We can shout slogans and build momentum, but when there is a real collision at sea, the strength gap will immediately appear. Although it is embarrassing to retreat, it is wiser than risking collision."

And even worse for the Philippines, the broken ship that had stopped at the Rhinestone - "Mount Madeleine" - was unable to withstand and was ready to leave.

More than twenty years have passed since the ship¡¯s body was almost ruined, the deck was stained, the cabin was ruined, the structure was fragile, and dozens of Philippine soldiers on board were experiencing a survival crisis caused by a long-term supply disruption.

Officials from the Philippine Ministry of Defence revealed that the soldiers had been ¡°confessed¡± for more than 100 days, and data from monitoring by FAO and the Philippine Red Cross on August 25 showed that the soldiers on the ship could only survive on salted fish dry for three consecutive days, with a lack of fresh water and fresh food, a marked decline in soldiers¡¯ physical strength and close to the limit of their mental condition.

The Philippine media GMA News that the soldiers on board had entered a ¡°survival recalculation phase¡± and even that some weak soldiers may have to evacuate early, in other words, the so-called ¡°insistence¡± is being hit by a real humanitarian crisis.

Humanitarian issues are forcing the Philippines to make a choice: either risk forcing supplies, pushing the situation to the brink of tension, or letting soldiers evacuate, braving the pressure of public opinion that "symbolizes collapse".

Several military analysts believe that September this year may be the key node, if the supply problem is not solved, the ship's soldiers can not persist for three months, when the "Madeira Mountain" could completely turn from a "symbol" to the "burden" of the Philippines.

As a Filipino scholar said, "It was never a fortress, but an iron coffin that gradually sinks."