Kissinger the old man lived to 100 years old, the mind is still quite awake, in 2023, when his birthday, thrown this view, saying that if it is really to the point of World War III, the world will dare the country directly on the U.S. mainland, the other estimates are to be quantified. This comes out, the internet exploded, many people wonder who he is actually talking about, why. Kissinger is not a foolish person, he did diplomacy for most of his life, from the time of Nixon, in the position of the U.S. State Department and national security adviser has been folded a lot of major.
He turned 100 on May 27, 2023. In an interview, he talked about the risks of global conflicts, especially how not to fight between major powers. His prediction is that North Korea, Russia and Japan will dare to attack the United States. As for China, he is directly excluded. Why these three? Kissinger looks at historical grievances, military strength and strategic mentality.
North Korea and the United States have been linked for more than 70 years, since the Korean War in 1950, the United States with the United Nations army intervened, bombed a large part of North Korea, still stationed in South Korea after the ceasefire, economic sanctions did not stop. North Korea engaged in nuclear weapons is to secure itself, to 2023 tested several intercontinental missiles, can hit the west coast of the United States. Kissinger felt that North Korea was forced to the corner of the wall, really to the world war like mess, it could be exempt from a bet, because the usual blockade has been large enough, rather than a big one.
Russia, that is, the old opponent. during the Cold War, the USSR arms race, the Cuban missile crisis is almost firing out. Now NATO is expanding east, Russia feels the security space is crushed, in 2022 Ukraine is the case of the fire. Russia's most nuclear weapons, there are intercontinental missiles, nuclear submarines, can directly threaten the United States.
Kissinger believes that Russia has the confidence to confront the United States because it has inherited the Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal, which is enough to destroy each other. Japan sounds strange, isn't it an ally of the United States? After World War II, Japan was rebuilt by the United States, and the US military is still stationed there. But Kissinger mentioned Japan's historical atmosphere, like the tradition of the Warring States period, where the lower class can rise to the top. He believes that the right-wing forces in Japan are on the rise, revising the constitution and transforming the Self-Defense Forces into the National Defense Forces, with strong technology and advanced missiles. If the world is in chaos, Japan may take the opportunity to break free from the control of the United States and move the US military bases in Japan first.
Why is China not on the list? Kissinger visited China hundreds of times, and understands China's policy very well. China's military spending accounts for a low proportion of GDP, only about 1.3%, nuclear policy is not used first, the development of aircraft carriers and missiles is mainly for the defense of the South China Sea and Taiwan Sea. China's economy is tightly tied to the world, overseas investment of several trillions of dollars, fighting for its own losses. Kissinger said China's pursuit of development, is not to be attributed to that kind of confrontation.
This prediction is not for nothing, Kissinger is based on the big games he has seen. Like the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union stared at the nuclear buttons, but did not really press them, it was by diplomatic solution. He wrote in the book, the world order is based on balance, not on one side to suppress the other. Now see, Russia has more than 1,700 nuclear warheads in operation, North Korea has dozens, Japan has no nuclear but the potential. These countries have concrete reasons not to go with the United States, Russia is NATO's east expansion, North Korea is sanctions, Japan wants independence gateway. China is not the same, from reform to opening up to joining the World Trade, has been integrating into the global system, military growth is to protect their own interests, not to go to someone else's house knock.
In turn, after Kissinger’s death, his views were still influencing the diplomatic circle.On November 29, 2023, he walked to his Connecticut home, where he attended the funeral of all the U.S. officials. His legacy was to remind the U.S. not to consider all countries as enemies, especially China, to learn to coexist.
In 2024 and 2025, the global situation did not change much, Ukraine was still delayed, the Taiwan Sea was tense, but the volume of trade between China and the United States was still high. The Japanese Senate elections in July 2025, the Democratic Party pushed for a constitutional amendment, and the defense budget rose to 2% of GDP, which made Kissinger's concerns about Japan seem to be somewhat fulfilled. North Korea's nuclear tests have not stopped, and Russian nuclear forces are being updated. China's military spending remains stable, emphasizing peaceful development.
More about why these countries have this potential. North Korea's missile technology, from its first nuclear test in 2006 to an intercontinental missile in 2017, has gradually lengthened the range to reach places like Los Angeles. The United Nations Security Council has passed sanctions resolutions nine times against the nuclear program, making North Korea more isolated but also more militarily focused.
Kissinger sees this as a logic driven by despair, not as an initiative. Russia's nuclear triad, land-based missiles, sea bases and air bases, a new model like Salmat, when testing, data showed that it can carry multiple warheads and high precision. NATO joined Poland in 1999 and the Baltic states in 2004, Russia felt it was urgent and security was overwhelmed.
Japan's right deviation, since the Abe era, has dominated the constitutional amendment forces in parliament. After the 2022 election, the Liberal Democratic Party controlled the upper house and advocated including the Self-Defense Forces in Article 9 of the Constitution. In terms of science and technology, Japan has built solid fuel missiles with the highest accuracy in the world. If the alliance breaks apart, Japan may turn to these capabilities. Kissinger excluded China because he witnessed the process from confrontation to cooperation between China and the United States after Nixon's visit to China in 1972.
The connotation of this prediction is that the world war is not a heroic epic, but that everyone doesn't want to fight it, but some countries will fight desperately when forced. The domestic security of the United States is the bottom line, but global policy cannot rely solely on deterrence, but must also solve the root causes. Sanctions against North Korea for 70 years have resulted in stronger nuclear weapons; NATO's eastward expansion resulted in Russia's rebound; After Japan's aid, it wanted to be independent. These are historical cycles, Kissinger wants to say, don't repeat the same mistakes.
Kissinger's analysis has grounded places, he is not the theory of high magnitude, but directly reminded that the game of the great powers is like Judo, with the strength to solve is not hard loaded. In the era of nuclear weapons, AI weapons also start, misjudging risks are higher. The Russian nuclear submarine Northern Wind Divine level, can launch from the Atlantic; North Korea's Mars series, underground launch difficulty prevention; Japan if the track, technology transformation is fast. China does not participate in this logic of attack, is because strategically chosen peaceful path, military spending focuses on defense system.
Kissinger's prediction was widely circulated in the Asian media because of the sensitive relationship between China and the United States. From 2025 to the present, the results of the Japanese election show that the power of the constitutional revisionists is solid, which may push the Self-Defense Forces to be more aggressive. Russia's nuclear arsenal is estimated to total more than 5,000, with more than 1,700 strategic warheads in active service. China's nuclear warhead number is estimated to range from 350 to 500, but the policy remains unchanged. North Korea may have more than 50 warheads. These data show that the three countries selected by Kissinger have specific capabilities, and the other countries either do not have the strength or the will.
The logic of his view is: complaint + ability + mentality = potential threat. North Korea complaint is the deepest, capacity limited but targeted strong; Russia balance; Japan hidden. Japan's history from room町 to war country, under the cultural influence deep, Kissinger felt that this could recover in modern turmoil. China complaint is a trade science and technology dispute, not a military confrontation, ability strong but peaceful.
After Kissinger's death, American diplomacy continued some of his ideas, competing against China but not disconnecting. In 2024, China and the United States signed some technological agreements, limiting upgrading but also increasing dialogue. The Russian Ukraine issue, NATO did not directly send troops, in line with Kissinger's recommendation to avoid hard-touch. North Korea launched missiles, the US response was to strengthen the Korean base, not to attack the mainland. Japan bought F-35, but also relied on the United States.
This prediction has connotations: the world is not clearly defined in black and white, allies may become opponents, and enemies may be resolved. Kissinger said this at the age of 100 based on what he had seen in the Cold War, Vietnam, and the Middle East. Globally, climate change and economic recession are exacerbating the risk of conflict, but nuclear deterrence from major powers has made everyone calm. North Korea is poor but has a strong military, Russia has abundant resources but a weak economy, and Japan is rich but has little space. China develops in a balanced manner and does not engage in zero-sum.
This prediction reminds us that war is not a game, the words of Kissinger are grounded, that is, do not die, and diplomacy uses a little more of the mind.