Recently, Japan has made frequent moves on the Taiwan Strait issue, and feels that they are determined to get involved.
From 2024 to 2025, a series of actions by the Japanese government and the Self-Defense Forces all point in one direction:Strengthen military preparedness for possible actions on mainland China.
For example, the Japanese defense white paper listed China as the biggest strategic challenge for years in a row, and the 2025 edition of the white paper directly says that China is trying to change the status quo with its strength.
Defense Minister Minoru Kihara also promoted the purchase of U.S. Tomahawk missiles. The number of 400 is enough to cover the eastern coast of China. The Type 12 ground-to-ship missile deployed on Kyushu Island has its range upgraded from 200 kilometers to 1000 kilometers, pointing directly in the direction of the mainland.
The arrival of these equipment has significantly improved the offensive capabilities of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces, but it also exposed their intentions: not just to defend, but to prepare to intervene in the event of an accident in the Taiwan Strait.
The words of the Japanese senior management are also becoming more and more explicit.
After Shigeru Ishiba became prime minister, he promoted local councillors to visit Taiwan and also said that the 1972 Sino-Japanese Joint Statement was not legally binding and would not restrict such activities.
Deputy Defense Minister Toshiro Ino told British media as early as 2023 that if the mainland uses force against Taiwan, Japan may provide defense equipment or logistical support. As soon as these words came out, Sino-Japanese relations became even more tense.
The Japanese Self-Defense Force has also established the Integrated Combat Command, which directly connects with the US military stationed in Japan. It is staffed with 240 people and is located in the Defense Ministry Building in Tokyo.
In March 2025, they announced Taiwan's emergency asylum plan, which would transfer 120,000 residents of the Okinawa Island Islands to Kyushu and Yamaguchi prefectures within six days.This plan sounds like a thief, on the surface is for the safety of the people, and actually paves the way for military intervention.
Okinawa’s airport ports were incorporated into the wartime supply chain, with the island’s radar stations reinforcing surveillance, and the Cartagena and Nagasaki bases stockpiled 70 percent of the U.S. air force, all of which were deployed toward the Taiwan Sea.
The reason why Japan does this is because it is driven by interests.
Joining the U.S.-led chip quarterly alliance, working with Taiwan to build factories to provide semiconductor materials and equipment, is not only economic, but also in response to the U.S. technological blockade against China.
Japan restricts the export of semiconductor manufacturing equipment below 14 nanometers to China, and Taiwan also controls the export of chips to the mainland.
Behind this was the Japan-U.S. alliance’s plotting, the 2024 joint armoured exercise, which directly simulated the attack on the Liberation Army’s landing fleet, and discussed blocking the subsequent forces.
At the Japan-US-Australian Defense Ministers 'Meeting, Toshiro Ino and others emphasized the stability of Indo-Pacific and pointed their finger at China.
The Philippines and Australia are also involved, but Japan is the most active one. According to experts' analysis, Japanese right-wing forces promote the argument that "something happens to Taiwan means something happens to Japan" to make excuses for intervening in the Taiwan Strait.
Like Taro Aso's "visit to Taiwan" in 2023, senior officials of the Liberal Democratic Party rushed to visit, creating momentum to deter the mainland.
But Japan really dares to intervene in the Taiwan Sea, can their self-defense force bear it?The Chinese military has developed rapidly over the years, the rocket army has the East Wind-21D and East Wind-26, which can suppress the Okinawa waters of U.S. Japanese ships.
The East Wind-26 range covered Guam, the bullethead's defense capabilities were strong, and the speed of 25 Mach made the interception rate of the Patriot-3 system questionable.
In the actual combat of the US military in the Red Sea in 2023, the Patriot system has repeatedly missed anti-Houthi missiles, which is known to everyone. Japan's Type 12 missile positions are distributed on Ishigaki Island and Miyako Island. The islands are two or three hundred kilometers apart, and the defense network has loopholes.
Liberation Army J-20 hidden fighter aircraft equipped with PL-15 missiles, can seize the airspace of Okinawa, bombing 6K jet long sword-20 fighting weapons warehouse.
Assuming that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces intervene, the People's Liberation Army can target the Japanese military core within 72 hours.
For the first 24 hours, direct strike at the Joint Fleet Command and Tokyo Defense Province headquarters., 200 Dongfeng-21D missiles can paralyze the defense line, and the interception rate is calculated based on 30% of the Japanese system.
The J-16D electronic fighter aircraft interfered with electromagnetic interference from hundreds of kilometers away, interrupting communication with the Self-Defense Forces.In the middle 24 hours, the focus was on Naha and Kadena bases in Okinawa, destroying missile positions and radar stations one by one.
East Wind-26 high-speed hypersonic bombardment, Patriots-3 can't overcome. F-16 and Bom-6K collaborate to destroy F-35 landing facilities. Offshore Eagle Shot-21 covers ports.
In the last 24 hours, depending on Japan's attitude, if it stubbornly resists, intercontinental missiles will come on stage.At the core of the Japanese military system at these points, the headquarters of Tokyo, the Yokohama Fleet, the Okinawa hub, coupled with the country's radar, facing the Liberation Army is not a measure.
According to a US think tank, if the US and Japan intervene in the Taiwan Strait, in the scenario of 2026, China will lose the war but the US and Japan will suffer heavy losses. The US will lose aircraft carriers and hundreds of aircraft, and the main force of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces will be damaged.
The report said it would end in three weeks, but China could strike Japan in a shorter time.
Japanese media reported that the 2024 Japan-US Sharp Sword Exercise used actual maps to simulate the Taiwan Strait for the first time, marking China as an imaginary enemy, but it was difficult to deduce that the China-Japan-US coalition forces would respond.
Japan's former chief of office Liu Zee said that preventing Taiwan from incidents is the key, and Japan will not directly mobilize self-defense forces to help Taiwan.
Zhang Yenting, a former deputy commander of Taiwan's air force, said in 2024 that if the mainland launched a war, it would take Taiwan within 96 hours. Japanese media broke the news that the Japan-US military exercise focused on attacking the amphibious fleet, but in the context of the People's Liberation Army's takeover of Taiwan, the Self-Defense Forces participated under the command.
Radicals inside Japan and the U.S. are tempted to push them along this path.But the Japanese constitution restricts the self-defense forces in terms of defence and practical expansion.
In 2023, Japan plans to upgrade 16 airports and ports for national defense purposes, targeting the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
From a Japanese perspective, the Taiwan Sea conflict involves the islands of Fiji and Okinawa, and the US-Japanese alliance may issue collective self-defense rights.But experts frequently analyze that the Taiwan Sea conflict, Japan's participation is limited to submarine patrols or missile strikes, will not be on a large scale.
Under the Indo-Pacific strategy, Japan's position is important, but China's strengthening of military power in the East China Sea and the South China Sea poses a high risk of conflict.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China urged the Japanese side to handle the Taiwan issue with caution, and the Ministry of Defense responded strongly to the Japanese White Paper.The Chinese Youth newspaper that Japanese Patriot missiles were deployed in Okinawa and the sword pointed to China.
Jiang Bin, a spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense, said that Japan is hyping the "China threat". Japan wants to be a chess player, but its strength is limited. If it intervenes in the Taiwan Strait, the demilitarization of the Self-Defense Forces is not empty talk.
Japan has been making constant small moves over the years, but when it comes to a showdown in the Taiwan Strait, their Self-Defense Forces cannot last 72 hours.
China's military strength is strong, and the Dongfeng series and Ji series are obviously suppressed. It is risky for Japan to follow the United States. According to expert analysis, the intervention of the United States and Japan has suffered heavy losses, and China has the ability to strike quickly.
Japan's right wing adds fuel to the flames, but the reality is that Japan has a small territory, concentrated bases and is easy to be targeted. The Taiwan Strait is an internal affair, and external forces interfere in self-destruction. Japan weighs it carefully and don't push yourself into the abyss.
Japan has profound lessons from history. Is it worth demilitarization after World War II and now it's going through trouble? China's kindness cannot be exchanged for understanding, but will only be firmer. Neighboring countries watched the show, but at the forefront of Japan, the people of Okinawa opposed the base.
Japanese media said,Japan will not dispatch its Self-Defense Forces to help Taiwan. Preventing something from happening is the key.China's military exercises normalized, Japan deployed more and more, and could not stop high-speed supersonic missiles.
Driven by interests, Japan colluded with each other, but the technological blockade hurt itself. The Chip Alliance has a bright surface, but actually relies on the China market. Japan's economic security guise actually responds to the call of the United States.
Taiwan authorities control exports and cooperate with Japan and the United States, but their strength is not equal.
References:
1. Will the "US-Japan Coalition Force" intervene in the Taiwan Strait by force? News 2025-04-02
2. Fact check | Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warns the Self-Defense Forces not to intervene in the Taiwan Strait? Radio Free Asia 2025.03.19