Source: China News Weekly
Expanding military operations in Gaza
Will it spark a "wave of international recognition" in September?
In late August 2025, the Israeli government officially approved the long-term occupation of Gaza City and the expulsion of millions of local residents, and called 60,000 reserves to expand its military operations in the Gaza Strip.
Some analysts pointed out that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's escalation of the war operation is to use the lives of the people of Gaza as a "coding" to threaten the international community not to spark the "wave of recognition". because, the upcoming September, is likely to become the main Western countries to concentrate on the recognition of the State of Palestine "historical month".
On July 24, French President Macron led the initiative, saying France would formally recognize the State of Palestine at the United Nations General Assembly in September. French officials then said the decision was the final decision "no matter how the situation in Gaza develops."
“In fact, Macron made a decision as early as June,” senior Israeli diplomat Aaron Lear revealed to China Newsweek that in June this year, during the Israeli-Iran conflict, he served as a member of the “joint delegation” composed of prominent Palestinian Israeli figures, and had four-hour exchanges in the Elysée Palace and Macron.
Lyell also revealed that as the Gaza issue becomes an "important moral values issue" in the Western world, leaders of 10 to 14 Western countries are considering following Macron.
Lear, a spokesman for the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs, an Israeli ambassador to South Africa and a foreign policy adviser to several Israeli prime ministers, has been deeply involved in the Palestinian peace process.In a recent interview with China Newsweek, Lear said that he now stood out because he could not identify with the current behavior of the government.
"For the past half century, I have served Israel as an ambassador and a senior diplomat. Our goal is to want to live in peace with all our neighbors, including Palestine." Lyall said. "Now, we are forced to live in a country that preaches war. The only conclusion of this government is that all Palestinians must be eliminated. I cannot support my country committing such a crime."
Can Israel Conquer Gaza?
"China News Weekly": Many analysts believe that Netanyahu's continued war in the Gaza Strip is to maintain his ruling position through war. But, to achieve this, he just needs to maintain his current level of action. Why did he launch a larger plan to "conquer Gaza City"?
Lyle:In fact, conquering Gaza has always been what Netanyahu wants to do. It is argued that only the far right in Netanyahu's cabinet wants total control and long-term occupation of Gaza. But I think Netanyahu's own goals are the same, although he has previously adopted relatively mild expressions, such as a reluctance to admit that his actions are causing Gazans to be trapped and starved to death. This is only because he fears Israel will be isolated by the international community.
Deep down Netanyahu has always wanted to occupy Gaza because he doesn't trust anyone. The remaining armed forces of Hamas are no longer a threat to Israel, so the "conquest of Gaza" plan has nothing to do with the military elimination of Hamas. The real problem is that Netanyahu doesn't believe that the Palestinian Authority, Arab countries, or any international community-backed force can manage post-war Gaza. Perhaps some day in the future he will think that Gaza can produce a "friendly" governing body. But at the moment, he wants the Israeli army to take direct control of this area.
After two years of war and international pressure, the Israeli economy is still very stable, the currency is strong, the unemployment rate has not changed much, and many countries still trade with Israel, including arms trade and investment in Israel.
China Newsweek: Does this mean that Netanyahu really has the ability to achieve the goal of "conquering Gaza" and long-term occupation?
Lyle:Militarily, Netanyahu may be able to control the entire Gaza Strip in the coming months. The question is, how has the international community responded in the past few months? Israel is part of the globalized West. On the economic, technological, cultural and other levels, the Israeli public cannot accept being isolated from the world. So the key is whether Netanyahu's policy of expanding military action in Gaza will spark a "wave of international recognition" in September.
What can the "recognition trend" change?
"China Newsweek": The actions of the international community have not been able to change the behavior of the Israeli government. What use can the "tide of recognition" be?
Lyle:First, it is a demonstration of the international community’s determination to show the Palestinians that the world has not forgotten them, that Israel has not been forgiven, and to show the Israeli government and the general public that Israel is being pushed to the most isolated corner by the international community.
Secondly, this will change the decision-making of US President Trump. Now, the leaders of five western countries (France, Britain, Canada, Australia and Malta) have publicly announced that they will recognize the Palestinian state in September. Another seven European and Oceanian countries are willing to act together in September. Belgium and Japan are also likely to join, but they are hesitant.
The Trump administration is putting pressure on nations in hopes of preventing the “recognition tide” from emerging. So we don’t yet know the exact scale of the September “recognition tide”, but it’s expected that about 10 countries will simultaneously recognize the State of Palestine. This could trigger further action within the next 3 to 6 months, eventually causing 14 out of 15 UN Security Council members to support accepting Palestine as a full member of the UN.
The U.S. government, of course, will continue to exercise its veto power. But if the Security Council continues with a 14:1 situation, especially in the context of European countries’ unity, Trump will not escalate the conflict for Israel and its European allies. On the Gaza issue, on Russia and Ukraine, Trump has been “enjoying” the internal split in Europe. And the change in Trump’s stance on Ukraine shows that once Europe truly unites, the U.S. government’s decision-making will change.
There is a difference between the Gaza issue and the Ukraine issue, and the Gaza issue has become a matter of moral values for the Western world. Before the fall of the South African apartheid regime in the 1980s, the 12 EU member states agreed to impose sanctions on the South African apartheid regime. At the time, U.S. President Reagan opposed this process, but eventually he had to choose to join it. The reason is that in the United States, all opposition forces were putting pressure on the government; internationally, the concern for the so-called “internal affairs” of the South African apartheid regime far exceeded the ideological confrontation between the West and the Soviet Union at the time.
This history tells us that on moral issues, if the Western world were united, the United States could not do it alone. Of course, this does not mean that Trump would recognize the Palestinian state, but by then he would put much greater pressure on Netanyahu to demand a ceasefire than it is now.
"China Newsweek": Trump once pressured Netanyahu to accept the ceasefire, but the Israeli government quickly overturned the ceasefire agreement. Will Israel still be influenced by Trump in the future?
Lyle:Israel will change too. It is foreseeable that the Israeli government will respond violently to the "wave of recognition". From my experience in diplomatic career, once a government comes under too much international pressure, it will start to make bigger mistakes. Over the past 20 months, we have seen this trend. Israel continues to escalate its destruction and cleansing operations in Gaza, and the death toll in Gaza continues to increase. The only international consequence of this is to unite the Western world more in its anti-Israel and pro-Palestine stance.
Now, the Israeli government has released "malicious words" that it will not send an ambassador to any country that recognizes the Palestinian state. The question is: Can you imagine that Israel doesn't even have ambassadors in London, Paris and Brussels?
At the same time, international-recognized chain reactions will take place in various international organizations, and Israel will be isolated in different international spheres. The Israeli government will further “resist,” such as closing some embassies abroad, further pushing for “resettlement” of Gaza residents, and even annexing the West Bank, but these actions will only exacerbate the conflict between Israel and the international community.
After that, the Israeli public could not remain silent. Most people have not yet felt international isolation, but they will feel this "war" when they have difficulty traveling abroad, cannot participate in overseas competitions, and find that star artists, academic institutions, cultural and artistic activities are far away from Israel.
Now, Israel has millions of protesters marching in the streets, but they are mainly protesting against Netanyahu’s corruption, hostage release and ceasefire, and it can be expected that a larger protests will focus on solving Israel’s international isolation after the “Wave of Recognition.”
Long-term "relying on our swords to survive"?
China News Weekly: Apart from the United States, will major Western countries really unite on the issue of recognizing a Palestinian state? Do you think European leaders are serious about recognizing a Palestinian state?
Lyle:In June this year, a joint delegation of peaceful Israelis and Palestinians met in Paris with French President Macron.
It was during the Israeli-Iran War, and in France it was very difficult to criticize Israel openly. But in the Elysee Palace, Macron communicated with us for four hours. He told us clearly: "Palestinians should have a state. I will recognize the State of Palestine. I'm not sure when I'll do this, but I'll do it." He also pointed out that the joint arrival of Israeli and Palestinian representatives in Paris gave him strength and once again strengthened his confidence in recognizing the Palestinian state.
After a while, Macron really publicly announced that France would recognize the Palestinian state in September, and that the international recognition process of Palestine would mark a major breakthrough in September.
China Newsweek: If a new round of international pressure can really force the Israeli government to reconsider the ceasefire, what should the international community's next goal be?
Lyle:The first is of course to stop the war and save all hostages. Then, the international community needs to make it clear to Israeli society that the world will never accept an Israeli government that continues to engage in military adventures, and that Israel must return to the negotiating table and resume peace negotiations with the Palestinians. Palestine and Israel must be able to enter the same room for dialogue and share their views on the basis of mutual respect.
The road to peace is still long, and the international community needs to maintain long-term unity and joint pressure to force the Israeli government back into the room.
"China News Weekly": In an interview with this newspaper, some Israelis also believed that Israel's revenge has been "too many" and there is no turning back now. It can only take a larger action in Gaza and even the West Bank to completely eliminate the possibility of Palestinian independent statehood. Millions of Palestinians have suffered new suffering. They must also want to "revenge." Israel has lost the opportunity to return to peace. How do you view this view?
Lyle:My evaluation of this can be summed up in one word-nonsense. In the 1990s, I was personally involved in the Oslo peace process, and I knew the Palestinians. I had a three-day exchange in Stockholm with Marwan Barghouti (Palestinian MP, Fatah leader, long-term imprisoned by Israel), and we had a long private conversation. They are all living people who support peace.
Yes, some Palestinians committed terrible war crimes on October 7, 2023, but thousands of Palestinians are yearning for peace, and what is Israel doing to them? Marwan Barghouti has been unjustly imprisoned for 27 years! Of course we will not talk to Hamas about an independent Palestinian state, but why do we not negotiate with Palestinian partners who support peace, but want to "get rid" of every Palestinian? This is not the country I want to live in, it goes against international law and goes against human conscience.
Israel paid a heavy price in the attack of 7 October, and Israeli society is convinced that we want revenge. The problem is that, 22 months later, Israeli decisions are still driven by revenge, not by professionals. The IDF leadership has been opposed to a larger military operation in the Gaza Strip, but the Israeli government continues to make mistakes at many levels, including military and diplomatic.
For the past half century, I have served Israel as an ambassador and senior diplomat. When I joined Israel's Foreign Ministry in 1971, our goal was to live in peace with all our neighbors, including Palestine. We were born in the years of war, so we want to work hard to achieve peace. Now we are forced to live in a country that preaches war. This government declares that we cannot accept any Palestinians and do not want "two states." The only conclusion, then, is that all Palestinians must be eliminated. I cannot support my country in committing such crimes.
Over the past two years, Netanyahu has repeatedly said that Israel will have to "live with sword" in the future. For Israeli society, this means that we will be in a situation where we are fighting and surviving for a long time, and we cannot guarantee that we will win every time.
Published in 2025.9.1 total 1202th edition of China News Weekly