Preliminary
Recently, the list of foreign heads and government leaders who attended the "9/3 parade" was announced.
The most striking of these is Kim Jong-un, the second-ranked leader of North Korea.
Why would Kim Jong-un personally come here, and what would South Korea react to?
North Korea's Rising Value
The "9-3 parade" Kim Jong-un personally attended, its intention can be said to be remarkable.
Just before China announced the presence of foreign leaders on the list, North Korea announced the deployment of its troops in Russia’s Kursk.
On the one hand, this is due to the fact that North Korea gathers internal centripetal force by commemorating the fallen soldiers and achieves the purpose of boosting the morale of the people of North Korea.
On the other hand, this is also North Korea proving its value to China and Russia.
The prolongation of the "Russian-Ukrainian War" once suffered from a resource shortage, not only did the production capacity of ammunition not meet the requirements of the front, but the number of troops was also not matched, so that for a period of time Ukraine occupied an immense advantage with NATO assistance.
It was during this difficult period that North Korea extended a helping hand to Russia, not only providing a large number of artillery shells, but also sending tens of thousands of troops to help Russia cope with the crisis in Kursk, which can be described as a real help in the snow.
This has undoubtedly raised North Korea's standing in Russia's eyes, and is the result of North Korea's own active pursuit of improved relations with Russia.
At the same time, North Korea’s move has also demonstrated its strategic value to China.
The Korean Peninsula has been the most tense region in East Asia since the Second World War, and both sides have accumulated insignificant strength once the balance is broken.
Therefore, North Korea's greatest value to China is the stabilizer of the Korean Peninsula, and it is an inevitable choice of China's strategy to maintain a certain strength to cope with the step-by-step pressure of South Korea and the United States in the south of the peninsula.
However, if North Korea is unwilling to make progress, it will not have the strong strength to prove that it can still have the value of stabilizers, and it will only wait for slow blood loss and eventual defeat.
It is only in this way that North Korea demonstrates its rising value through this cooperation with Russia.
This time, Kim Jong-un came to participate in the "September 3 military parade". In addition to using this opportunity to consolidate Russia-North Korea relations, it is more obvious to bring China-North Korea relations closer and give North Korea more opportunities for peaceful development.
The relations between the two countries determine the future of North Korea.
As a third-generation leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un is facing a very different situation today.
During the administration of his father Kim Jong Il, North Korea was unable to continue to maintain economic development and agricultural production due to the collapse of the Soviet Union, which led to North Korea being plunged into an extremely difficult period in the 1990s. Coupled with North Korea's huge investment in "nuclear weapons" at this time, it undoubtedly made its originally declining national economy worse and attracted countless international sanctions.
After Kim Jong-un took office, the situation was very different.
Kim Jong-un himself, who studied in Switzerland in his early years, can be said to have witnessed the huge gap between North Korea and abroad, and naturally hopes to change the status quo of North Korea in various ways.
In addition to the completion of internal rectification, the gradual recovery of the national economy and the success of nuclear weapons research and development, Kim Jong-un can not have to hold on to the concept of the "first army policy" to ensure North Korea's security, can let it open hands to grasp North Korea's internal development.
The most obvious change is that North Korea indicated a few years ago that it would no longer claim the sovereignty of South Korea in the southern part of the peninsula. This is undoubtedly announcing to the world that it has no intention of a large-scale conflict with South Korea, but is ready to focus on internal affairs.
This time, "Russia-North Korea cooperation" is undoubtedly an opportunity for North Korea's development. Using the surplus of weapons, ammunition and personnel assistance is enough to exchange North Korea for capital for further development.
However, Russia's economy itself is not developed, and it is deeply involved in the Russia-Ukraine war. What it gives North Korea the most is military help, and it is basically powerless about its economy and development.
At this time, relations with the DPRK are very important for North Korea.
North Korea itself has demonstrated its value through a series of actions on the "Russia-Ukraine Battlefield". Only with good China-North Korea relations can North Korea have the opportunity to exchange this value for more cooperation opportunities.
Kim also understood that Russia could be relied on militarily, but in terms of people’s livelihoods and economy, North Korea’s future is undoubtedly dependent on China.
This time, Kim Jong-un personally came to participate in the "September 3 Military Parade", naturally hoping to further consolidate the relations between China and North Korea through this rare opportunity.
However, Kim Jong-un's attendance will undoubtedly attract the attention of another country-that is, South Korea.
South Korean reaction.
For the attendance of the North Korean leader, the South Korean side is naturally quite dissatisfied, and Li Zaiming also decided not to participate in the military parade in person, but to reassign the Speaker of the South Korean Parliament, Yu Yuanzhi, as a representative.
Li Zaiming's statement can be said to be expected.
Although Lee, a left-wing Democratic Party, is not as disgusted with North Korea as the right-wing people in South Korea, the South Korean people are generally not friendly to North Korea, and it is also reasonable to choose to give up participation in parades for the sake of the domestic public opinion.
Connecting with a series of turbulences in Lee's recent visit to the United States, it seems that there are no benefits between China and the United States.
But the opposite may be true.
As a country that is sandwiched between China and the United States and relies heavily on both China and the United States, it is not in its domestic interests if South Korea's foreign policy is completely tilted towards one side.
Therefore, under the guidance of the former Yin Xi Jinping, Li's foreign policy is undoubtedly the choice to find a balance between China and the United States.
Although the result of Lee Jae-myung's visit to the United States was not satisfactory, and with his relatively tough attitude, he formally indicated to China that he would not continue the policy of the previous government and be too close to the United States, but chose to gradually ease relations with China.
By not attending my country's "September 3 Military Parade" in person, he was also telling the United States that although its attitude towards my country is very friendly, it is not too close. In addition, although South Korea still has certain differences in investment in the United States, it is enough to make the relationship between the United States and South Korea more consolidated.
It can be said that Li Zaiming's choice not to attend the military parade this time also allowed him to balance his choice of diplomatic strategy.
Around this "September 3 military parade", both the north and south of the peninsula can be said to have done their best, hoping to consolidate their favorable diplomatic relations through this grand event in exchange for more development opportunities in the future.
It can be said that under the current state of affairs, major conflicts may not break out on the Korean Peninsula in the next few years, and both North and South Korea will also make great progress through this window period.
The source:
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