Preliminary
On one side, senior Philippine officialsThe red line is not to be crossed.On one side is Philippine Foreign Minister Manalo“Return to the negotiating table.”The low statements.
Right on the Chinese sideThe ship enters the Reef.After the adjacent waters, this seemingly tough but actually guiltycontradictory expressionCompletely exposed.
Why is there such a dramatic divergence in attitudes in the Philippines?The Mefi Defence TreatyCan you really support it to the end?
A few tugboats keep Philippine officials up at night, waking up a 25-year dream
It's ironic to say.A few ordinary boats., put the entire power center in Manila into panic.These ships, which are usually used for maritime rescue, have now become the most feared in the eyes of Philippine officials“The threat”。
Imagine those scenes in the office, which must be smoke blinking and the phone ringing all the time.Things must startsatellite imagerySpeaking of it.
When international observers via high-definition satellites saw several Chinese drills quietly appearing in the waters near the Yin Reef, the rotting spots of Mount Madre were only a few miles away.5 nautical miles。What does this mean? anybody who understands it knows.
5 nautical miles, for a high-horsepower tugboat, it is a starting distance.The reaction of Philippine Navy spokesman Trinidad is most telling. The spokesman, who is usually calm in front of the camera, really panicked this time.
held continuouslyemergency press conferenceHe said surveillance of Chinese maritime activities was “abnormally increasing.”What do you mean by "abnormal increase"? To put it bluntlyChina is serious。The past model of making trouble and taking care of me is undergoing fundamental changes.
The current situation is to close the net if necessary, and clear the net if necessary.What's more interesting is the Philippine side'sThe psychological reaction chain.From the initial disdain, to the later verbal threats, to the current real panic
Trinidad says "the red line is not to be crossed", but the body honestly starts looking forretreatThreatening to use the Mefi Joint Defense Treaty is actually seeking help from Washington.This response illustrates a problem:25 years of illegal occupation, it's really coming to an end.
The lie of "the bottom of the boat leaks and has to sit on the beach" back then is no longer believed by the Filipinos themselves.FromMay 1999By now, a full quarter of a century. This old antique from World War II is stuck in Renai Reef like a nail.
The Philippine side not only did not fulfill its promise to tow it away, but also kept sending troops to be stationed and secretly transported building materials for reinforcement. What is this "technical failure"? It is obvious thatdeliberate occupation。
All right now, as soon as the Chinese tugboat arrives, all the small calculations of these years will have to be recalculated.The decision-making level in ManilaI finally realized that the rules of the game might really change.
From Small Intelligence in 1999 to Big Trouble in 2024, the Philippines has played itself into the pit.
To understand the current panic in the Philippines, we must first understand this.25 yearsWhat tricks are they playing?In May 1999, the Philippine Navy's Mount Madre suddenly appeared in the Reef."The bottom of the boat is leaking."。
This excuse sounded somewhat reasonable at the time, after all, it was a second-war ship.But the question is, since it is "tried to sit on the beach", why not delay it for 25 years?No intention of towing it away at all。
Over the years, the Philippine operation was simply a textbook-grade "warm water cooking frog".SuppliesThen the rotating reef guard personnel, then the secret transportation of building materials.
Every step seems reasonable and is actually preparing for permanent occupation.This tacticThere is a special term in international relations called "salami slicing", sausage-cutting tactics.
A slice a slice, each slice is thin, so you don’t think it’s worthy to go dry for it. But at the end of the cut, the whole sausage is gone.Playing with yourself.。
The turning point occurs whenThis May。 The Philippines has not carried out the so-called "replenishment mission" for three consecutive months, which has never happened in the past.Why does this happen? The answer is simple:China has strengthened control。
After the Huangyan Island incident, China's law enforcement on Ren'ai Jiao has significantly escalated.Only then did the Philippines realize that people had seen his small actions over the years. Now it was a general ledger, and he panicked all of a sudden.
It's like doing it for 25 years"Black Household", suddenly found that the landlord was going to close the house.What's worse is the time node.2024 is a special year., China has many important commemorative activities. In this context, any unstable factors in the surrounding area will be highly valued.
The Philippines may have thought of taking the opportunity to make some more tricks, but found that China was more prepared than they imagined. Not only is the tugboat in place,Various law enforcement forcesAlso full of.The current situation is that the Philippines finds itself trapped in astrategic passivenessSituation.
China is facing tougher countermeasures.Compromising concessions and fears that domestic politics will be difficult to deal with.Not afraid in the mouth., but the contradictory performance of action is very cautious.
In the final analysis, the strategy of the Philippines in the past 25 years is to bet that China will not really do it. Now this bet,May be losing。
U.S. Painted Cakes Are Delicious, But The Philippines May Be Hungry
The most interesting thing is how the United States behaved in this whole thing.Silence, surprisingly silent.The Philippines hasUS-Philippines Common Defense TreatyMoving out of the threat, Washington was silent like a grave, and this contradiction explained the problem more than any analysis.
Think also, the United States is now a bunch of its own rubbish. two aircraft carrier strike groups are scattered fromWithdrawal towards the South China SeaEven the original planned deployment of the boxer's two-barrel attack ships were laid down.What did Uncle Sam bring to the Philippines?Mouth cannonIs it?
International politics has always been realistic, and Americans are smart and won't do it for a broken ship and China.Ray Powell of Stanford University said it very bluntly: the United States will not go to war with China over a broken ship. Although these words are harsh, they areBig truth。
Philippine security expert Chester Cabalza is still there to comfort himself, saying what the US pretends to be untrustworthy of its Indo-Pacific allies.When did the United States really care about the feelings of its allies?？
From the chaos of the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan to the caution in the Ukraine crisis, the US approach is clear:Let the allies go ahead.Lost in the back.For the Philippines, this is a harsh reality check.
The various promises made by the United States in those years, the paintings of all kinds of cakes, are now here.When fulfilled, only to find that they are all bad checks.What's more embarrassing is that the Philippines is still there. Threatening to use force while saying "I don't want to escalate the situation".
When Trinidad was asked at the press conference what would happen if the fire was actually fired,stumbleI dare not respond positively.This performance can only explain one problem: the Philippines has no daring to struggle with China at all.The so-called "red line" and "defense treaty" are allThe paper tiger.It's just to scare people.
In fact, the U.S. attitude has long been clear. After the U.S. military vessels broke into the territorial waters of Yellowstone Island on August 13, the U.S. side has no longer given any solidarity to the Philippines on the issue of the Yellowstone Reef.A very obvious signalIt is .
Washington's logic is simple: I can shake around you and show a sense of existence, but really want to shed blood for you, then it's different.PragmatismThe Philippines has now experienced the alliance.
So the current situation is that the Philippines finds itself isolated. The United States is unwilling to really end up,Other ASEAN countriesThey don’t want to be dragged down, they can only face pressure from China.
At this time, the statement of the Foreign Minister "willingness to return to the negotiating table" is not a diplomatic statement, but ratherTrue summation signalIt is .
Whether decent finish or shameful appearance, the Philippines is at a crossroads.
The question now is clear: what will happen next in the Philippines?A decent withdrawal., or continue to hold on to the end?From the current situation, the cost of continuing to hold on is getting higher and higher.
The ChineseTugboat is in placeAll kinds of law enforcement forces are also fully prepared, and the Philippine Sierra Madre ship may be forcibly towed away at any time.At that time, the loss was not just one ship, but the whole of the Philippines.international face。
Think about it, 25 years of persistence finally ended in this way. How will the Marcos government explain it at home?The more realistic problem is that the Philippines has not supplied material for three consecutive months.
Now.People on board.The outside world is very curious about the situation.Political pressure in the Philippines is also increasing. Members of the Senate have already questioned why the government keeps investing resources into a“Destined to failure.”, rather than being used for people's livelihood economy.
This kind of voice is increasing in the Philippines. After all, ordinary people are concerned about employment, prices and education, not a small reef thousands of kilometers away.Political CostsIt is completely disproportionate to the actual income.
From the perspective of international relations, the South China Sea dispute is entering a new stage. The past model of small fights and you come and go is being strengthenedDirect and efficientThe treatment method is replaced.
China's approach is very clear: what should be managed, what should be dragged, and what should be cleared. No more playing those convoluted games with you,solve the problem directly。These changes have profound implications for the entire South China Sea situation.
Everyone else will see in their eyes, in their hearts.Own calculations。The cost of continued provocation is rising, and the value of rational dialogue is becoming prominent.For the Philippines, the smartest option now may be to downhill the donkey.
Minister of Foreign Affairs Manuel has made a statement about this.Political spaceThe important thing is how the follow-up works.If we can some sort ofTransitional arrangementsAllowing the Philippines to withdraw in an orderly manner not only saves face, but also avoids greater conflicts.
This is a relatively ideal outcome for all parties.But if the Philippines continues to choose to confront, then waiting for them is likely to beA harsher realityChina has shown enough patience and restraint, but this patience is not unlimited
After all, this is a combination of power, will, and wisdom.The Philippines now has to evaluate the situation correctly.Make a rational choice。History will remember this moment. The 25-year South China Sea game may have to be witnessed by these tugboats.Opening a new page.。
conclusion
From the tiny place of Renai Reef, what we see is not only a military game, but also a contest between strength and bravado in international relations. When several tugboats scare opponents more than aircraft carriers, it may indicate that the South China Sea dispute is entering a new stage.
Faced with such a change, do you think the Philippines will choose to retreat with dignity or continue to hold on? Welcome to share your views.