In an attempt to re-shape the image of “strong America,” U.S. President Trump once again spoke astonishingly. According to the United Morning Post, he met with South Korean President Lee at the White House and publicly declared,Although "China has some cards in its hands," the United States holds "bigger and better cards," and even threatened that "if I play these cards, they will destroy China."
[Trump claims to have a "bigger and better card"]
However, ironically, at the same time that he said these words,China’s high-level trade delegation is preparing to travel to the United States for a new round of negotiations.
On the one hand, threatening, while also asserting that China-US relations are "very important" and saying that "it will go well with China", Trump's contradictory statements once again aroused widespread attention from the outside world.
It is generally believed that Trump chose to make this argument before the arrival of the Chinese delegation,Largely a negotiating tactic where the intent prevails psychologically.But the reality may be far more complicated than he claims.
On rare earths, for example, Mr. Trump has threatened to impose a 200 per cent tariff on China if it does not supply the US with rare earth magnets. However, the trade war a few months ago has proved that the US is heavily dependent on China for the rare earth supply chain, and it is difficult to change this situation in the short term.
[It is difficult for the United States to get rid of its dependence on China's rare earths in a short time]
China occupies a dominant position in the global rare earth processing market. Although the United States intends to rebuild its local industrial chain, it will not be completed overnight from mining to purification to magnet manufacturing.
So here's the problem.Trump said so confidently, what "good card" does he have in his hand to dare to make such harsh words?If we let go of the scene and carefully look at it, it is not possible except for the following:
The first is the tariff card.The Trump administration has imposed steep tariffs on a variety of Chinese goods, but the actual effect is not satisfactory. Previously, the two sides once increased tariffs to more than 200% of each other, resulting in a near interruption of bilateral trade. Finally, the US side took the initiative to return to the negotiating table because it could not bear the economic pressure.
Faced with Trump's new tariff threat, China's Foreign Ministry responded with only one sentence: "We have clarified our position many times", but the determination behind "to accompany the end" is unquestionable.This card has long been proven to be a “unwinable card”.
[China responds to Trump's 200% tariff threat]
Next is the technical blockade.The United States does have advantages in some scientific and technological fields such as semiconductors and high-end manufacturing, and is trying to curb China's development through export controls.
But China has made significant progress in independent innovation in recent years, and a series of key technologies such as chips, new energy, and artificial intelligence have continued to breakthrough.The technological blockade not only failed to stop China from moving forward, but instead promoted the pace of China's independent research and development and accelerated the "de-Americanization" of key technology fields.
Another possibility is financial pressure,For example, restricting China’s access to the US dollar settlement system, or freezing overseas assets, such extreme measures would seriously impact global financial stability and damage the US dollar’s credibility and its own interests.
As for military options, it is more unrealistic.China is not just any country. As a big country with a complete national defense system and nuclear counterattack capability, any military adventure will bring unpredictable and huge risks, which the United States obviously cannot afford.
The United States cannot afford a conflict with China.
Why is Trump so high?Some analysts have pointed out that this is likely to be related to its domestic political needs.At present, U.S. soybeans are about to enter the harvest season, and China, as the original big buyer, has not significantly increased its purchases as Trump had hoped due to the search for more stable alternative sources.
The American Soybean Association has publicly called on the government to reach an agreement with China as soon as possible to avoid harming farmers’ interests.In the context of the upcoming mid-term elections next year, Trump urgently needs to show “strong strength” on trade issues to calm domestic sentiment.
At the same time, the Chinese delegation visited the United States.It will focus on issues such as soybean procurement, the easing of U.S. high-tech export restrictions, and the abolition of so-called "Fentanyl tariffs".These are all substantive issues between Sino-US trade, and they are also the keys to truly affect the economic and trade balance between the two countries.
[Trump wants China to purchase large amounts of American soybeans]
Taken as a whole, Trump's "amazing good card theory" lacks practical support and is more of a bluff negotiating tactic and psychological tactics.In response, China showed calmness and restraint, neither dancing nor giving up on the principle, and always emphasized the negotiating basis of "mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit".
In the high-stakes game of international trade, the real trump cards have never been threats and intimidation, but market potential, supply chain resilience, technological prowess and a stable policy environment. These are precisely where China's strengths lie.Even in the face of pressure, China has many counter-cards to use, such as rare earths, market and manufacturing capabilities.
In the long run, there is still the possibility of a negotiated agreement between China and the United States, but this requires practical communication between the two sides, rather than unilateral pressure.If Trump continues to be repeatedly overwhelmed and enthusiastic about “verbal art,” it is likely that he will miss out on the opportunity to reach an agreement again.China is clearly prepared to respond to various situations.