Text | Xiaoxiang 12th Floor

Editor at the 12th floor.

The commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the victory of China's Anti-Japanese War will be grandly held in Beijing. The heads of state of 26 countries will gather together. The scene can be described as lively. In this "circle of friends" gathering, one familiar face was missing-Trump.

The White House cited "conflicting agendas," but on the same day, he chose to meet the Polish president in Warsaw, and by the way, he threw China a list of "joining the US-Russia nuclear disarmament talks."While absent from the ceremony, while making a request, this operation is somewhat unreasonable.

The calculator behind the absence: not coming to Beijing, not just because of "business"

A White House spokesman said that Trump ¡°needed to welcome the Polish president,¡± but what it looked like was a ¡°excuse.¡±To know, this commemorative event is not only a big thing for China, but also the international community to observe the trend of China-U.S. relations.

The current political situation in the United States is burning, and the US-China relationship continues to be tense. The Trump team is clearly reluctant to risk releasing any ¡°good face¡± to the Chinese side in the context of no progress in trade negotiations. If it really flies to Beijing, the domestic opposition and the media are afraid to immediately knock on the hat ¨C ¡°weakness toward China.¡±

Moreover, the recent clashes between China and the United States are also few: from the trade war to the blockade of the chip, to the supply chain disconnection, the atmosphere has never been easy. In the absence of any substantive compromise, Trump is unwilling to appear in Beijing, equal to not giving China the chance to "add points", while also avoiding the embarrassment of falling into "proof of failure".

But the problem is that his choice is also a voluntary pass-up of an opportunity to de-escalate relations between China and the United States on an international stage and demonstrate flexible diplomacy. After all, with all 26 heads of state present but the US president absent, this "empty seat" can easily be seen as a true thermometer of US-China relations.

Proposing nuclear disarmament seems lofty, but it is actually unequal

On the same day that he was absent from the Beijing parade, Trump threw out a ¡°magnificent blueprint¡±: calling on China to join the US-Russian nuclear disarmament negotiations and the three countries to cut nuclear arsenals together.This ¡°invitation letter¡± is neither unfair nor realistic for China.

Let's take a look at a set of cold data first: the number of nuclear warheads in the United States is about 5,044, and Russia has about 5,580, but what about China? About 500 pieces. This gap is like a supermarket chain who wants to talk with a street canteen about "joint production reduction". This negotiation is not equal from the starting point.

China's nuclear strategy has always emphasized "minimum deterrence" and adhered to the "no first use of nuclear weapons" policy. This is also a very restrained gesture on a global scale. However, the nuclear policies and strategic reserves of the United States and Russia are a continuation of the legacy of the Cold War for decades. Now, the United States has suddenly proposed "everyone reduce together." It sounds like it is reasonable, but in fact it wants to drag China into the "blame."

China's response to this is also unequivocal: the country with the largest nuclear arsenal and the most aggressive nuclear policy (the United States and Russia) should take the lead in shouldering the responsibility for disarmament. China's nuclear development is defensive, not for hegemony, let alone for confrontation. The logic of insisting on pulling China in to "share the responsibility equally" is untenable.

Some analysts have pointed out that Trump's real intention may not be for "world peace", but to use the disarmament issue to lock in the development space of China's future nuclear capabilities in advance. The director of national intelligence of the United States has publicly predicted that the number of nuclear warheads in China may exceed 1,000 by 2030. Trump's move may be to "plan ahead".

Coupled with the slowdown in U.S. economic growth, GDP fell by 0.3% month-on-month in the first quarter of 2025, domestic inflationary pressure remained unabated, and the unemployment rate rebounded. Trump urgently needs a diplomatic issue to divert domestic attention. Taking nuclear disarmament as a matter can be regarded as a "tall" public relations tool.

Not in Beijing but in the shadow of Beijing.

Although Trump did not come to Beijing, Beijing's share is increasingly heavy on the international stage.At this parade, 26 heads of state confirmed the presence, including not only Chinese traditional partners, but also a number of members of the "American Friendship Circle", which is the signal that can not be ignored.

According to a report by Japan's Kyodo News Agency, the Japanese government has tried to persuade other countries to "low-key" arrangements for attending China, but the results are not ideal. The EU Council on Foreign Relations even criticized the United States for its unilateralism on nuclear disarmament issues. This shows that even traditional allies may not be willing to follow the United States on every issue.

At the same time, China has achieved remarkable achievements in multilateral diplomacy.SCO Tianjin Summit specifications have been unprecedented, Russian State Duma President Volokin visited China in advance, and further deepened China-Russia strategic cooperation, such a "people-to-people" hot network, and the "closed-door talks" on Trump's side, formed a distinct contrast.

More importantly, China is not "anxious" or "passive" because of the absence of the United States, but instead continues to adhere to a consistent position and rhythm, clearly rejecting negotiations on nuclear disarmament, adhering to equal dialogue on trade and security issues, and constantly expanding the circle of friends in the multilateral mechanism.

On the US side, whether it is through OFAC to sanction Chinese companies or to win over allies to put pressure on China, the effect is increasingly limited. This idea of "pressure for cooperation" is obviously not in line with the reality of today's international landscape.

conclusion

Trump was absent from the Beijing parade, but on the same day made unrealistic demands on China, this "distance pressure" practice,Not only did it not bring diplomatic outcomes, it also exposed America¡¯s strategic short-sightedness.

China will not compromise on defense and security issues, but will not close the door to confrontation.What can really promote the improvement of Sino-US relations is not unilateral "excessive demands", but mutual respect and equal consultation.

In this multi-polar accelerated world, the old path of unilateralism is not going.China and the United States want to avoid misjudgment, avoid conflict, and stable coexistence, relying only on dialogue and cooperation, and not "who has a big voice will take over."Only looking at yourself but not others, just wanting to exert pressure but not cooperate, such a diplomatic strategy is destined to hit a wall in reality.

reference

26 foreign heads of state and government will attend the 93rd parade.