Source: Shangguan News
On August 29, local time, the Constitutional Court of Thailand ruled that Petun Tan, who was suspended as prime minister, had constituted an unconstitutional act in his conversation with the Cambodian Senate president Hunson, and dismissed him from the post of prime minister from the moment.
After the announcement of the ruling, Petongtan, who watched the live broadcast in the Prime Minister's Office and did not go to the court, held a press conference to express his acceptance of the court ruling. But she also reminded that the result of the ruling will bring changes to Thailand's political situation.
There are two main possible directions to Thailand’s politics in the future after Patton’s departure, and his father believes another trial he will face next month will undoubtedly plunge him into another chaos for his family and for the Thai Party.
There is still room for maneuver
On August 16, a year ago, on the bright ring of "the daughter of the former prime minister, he believes," Petonthan won the support of more than half of parliamentarians in the Thai parliamentary vote, becoming the second female prime minister in Thailand's history, and will also be the youngest prime minister.
Fortune and misfortune depend on. Although Petontan emerged early. But it was also pushed into an unprecedented crisis because it was not deeply involved in the world. On May 28, a brief clash broke out between Thai and Cambodian troops in the disputed border area, resulting in the death of a Cambodian soldier. On June 15th, Petongtan had a phone call with her father's former friend Hun Sen. She affectionately called Hun Sen "uncle" and criticized the commander of the Second Military Region of Thailand. Petongtan later explained that this was a diplomatic negotiation skill, aiming at solving the border issue between the two countries through personal relations, and the dialogue was conducted within the diplomatic framework, without involving secret transactions or attempts to harm national interests.
But as the content of the call leaked, the incident, known as the "recording door", unsurprisingly triggered more chain reactions: Opponents publicly called for her to resign, and the largest opposition party, the People's Party, urged her to dissolve the Lower House of Parliament for a new election. The second largest party, Proud Thai Party, immediately withdrew from the ruling coalition. Thailand's 36 senators have asked the Constitutional Court to investigate whether Petontan violated constitutional and political moral standards.
Thailand's Constitutional Court's final ruling did not go unpunished by the interpretation that Petuntan's "original intention was for the national interest." On August 29, nine judges of the Constitutional Court ruled that Petuntan was unconstitutional by a vote of 6 to 3 after a collegial hearing. The court held that although Petuntan called Hun Sen to protect the national interest, she had negative remarks about the Thai military during the call and interceded with Hun Sen, which was not conducive to the national interest. There was an unconstitutional act, and she was terminated as prime minister according to the constitution. This ruling took effect from the date the Constitutional Court suspended her as prime minister on July 1.
Following the court ruling, Pete Thunberg left the prime minister’s office for the Thai Party headquarters and met with senior members and members of the party waiting there. Some supporters handed out the slogan for Pete Thunberg. Zhou Yu, director of the Southeast Asian Research Center of the Shanghai International Affairs Institute, said that although he was deprived of the prime minister’s office, Pete Thunberg is still the minister of culture and still can influence the future political arena in Thailand, or even have the chance to be elected as the next prime minister candidate for the cabinet and eventually return to the prime minister’s post on July 1, the Thai cabinet completed a new round of reform and Pete Thunberg served as the minister of culture. It has been analysed that this personal arrangement was very intentional, or hoped that taking into
Unknown Thaksin factor
Generally speaking, there are two possible options after Petun Tamm was removed from office. One was to convene the Thai House of Commons to vote for a new prime minister from a pre-established list of candidates. The second was to dissolve the House of Commons by Vice-Premier Putin to trigger an early election.
According to the provisions of the Thai Constitution, the Thai House of Commons is next responsible for convening a meeting to elect a new prime minister. The candidate must come from the list of prime minister candidates submitted by each party during the 2023 general election. Currently, there are roughly five candidates for prime minister who meet the requirements: Chai Kason, candidate of the Phei Thai Party, Anutin, leader of the Phei Thai Party, and Piraphan Sharilatawipakhar of the Thai Unity and National Party. The People's Party Julin Rashanawesi, and former Prime Minister Prayuth.
However, the Thai Constitution does not stipulate the time for the election of a new prime minister. Analysts believe that the current ruling coalition led by the Thai Party currently has a weak majority in the House of Commons, with a weak ruling foundation and a lack of outstanding candidates. The House of Commons may go through several rounds of voting to determine the new prime minister. As there is no clear candidate to replace Petongtan, Thailand may face a period of high political uncertainty.
The debate in Thailand on whether to dissolve the lower house of parliament and hold a new lower house election under the current situation has continued for many days. If Putan chooses to dissolve the lower house, the law stipulates that a new election must be held within 45 to 60 days. But some analysts believe that before then, politicians and petitioners are expected to ask the Constitutional Court to rule on whether the move is legal, and the Thai political situation may once again be trapped in the cycle of the judiciary exerting strong influence on Thai politics.
If the election is triggered in advance, the situation is unclear. Currently, the largest opposition People's Party occupies the largest number of seats in the House of Representatives, which evolved from the former far-reaching party, is an emerging political force, advocating reform of Thailand's political structure and reducing the influence of the military. Last year, the Thai Constitutional Court ruled that the far-reaching party pledged to amend Article 112 of the Criminal Code (i.e. offend the monarchy) during the general election of 2023, declaring the far-reaching party unconstitutional. There are analyses that it is difficult for the people's party to get over half the seats, and the conservative camp's prevention makes it doubtful whether it can successfully form a governing coalition.
According to Zhuhai New Observation, the Thai Party has reached a certain degree of compromise and cooperation with the royal family and the military, currently its ruling coalition includes conservative forces, has established its own advantages in the long-term political accumulation, the Thai Party is experienced, the electoral style is pragmatic and stable, can both jointly govern with the political party of the reform nature, but also join the conservative camp group cabinet.
Thailand’s politicians are warned that Patton’s verdict and the candidate’s unresolved situation, or that the conservative forces have repeated their struggle for power with his beloved family, are the fourth prime minister in his beloved family who resigned as a result of a military coup or a court ruling. He believed in a military coup in 2006. In 2008, his brother-in-law, who served as prime minister for less than three months, was ruled unconstitutional. In 2014, his beloved sister, Inra, was accused of interfering with the government’s appointment for his relatives, and was ultimately ruled to resign immediately from the prime minister’s office. In addition, his beloved friend, Shammar Dada, was also remunerated in 2008 for hosting programs and was ruled by the Constitutional
In addition to Petongtan's "recording door", Thaksin's lawsuits also cast a shadow over the family's political prospects. On August 22nd, the Thai Criminal Court rejected the prosecution against Thaksin due to insufficient evidence, but immediately afterwards, Thaksin had to face the ruling of another case on September 9th. Thai analysts believe that if Thaksin is found guilty at that time, the Thai party and government will immediately face a "collapse-like fate".