According to a report by the U.S."NSJ" on August 29, Russia and Belarus will hold a "Western-2025" joint military exercise from September 12 to 16, which will scare NATO, especially NATO countries close to the two countries.
It is understood that there are about 13,000 troops participating in the exercise, including 2000 Russian troops.
Although Belarus claims that the scale of this military exercise has been significantly reduced, NATO's eastern wing countries are still highly vigilant. It can even be said that if they do not shrink, they will not be afraid. Once they shrink, people will feel that something is wrong.
Recalling the past, Russia, on the eve of the special military operation against Ukraine in 2022, deployed its troops in Belarus through the Joint Decision 2022 military exercise, and then launched a raid on the north of Ukraine.
The exercise plan covers the use of ultra-sonic oreshnik missiles, simulated nuclear weapons and strategic maneuvering, which is very close to real-world operations.
Although the White side has claimed to invite foreign observers to try to show transparency to the outside, Lithuania, Poland and other countries dare not believe a word.
At the same time, NATO also launched a large-scale Iron Guard-25 exercise in response to which Poland, Lithuania, Germany and U.S. forces began to mobilize troops around the Suvauki Corridor, appearing to be preparing for a major war.
This was not the first time that such military exercises had been conducted.
As early as Russia held the “West-2021” exercise in 2021, Russia avoided the OSCE surveillance mechanism by declaring its scale to be limited.
Prior to the outbreak of the special military operation in 2022, Russia also deployed large numbers of troops to the south of Belarus on the basis of exercises, eventually serving as the starting point for raids on the northern border of Ukraine.
This "West-2025" military exercise is once again located in Belarus, which is close to the borders of Poland and Lithuania, and plans to use long-range strikes and nuclear simulations. Obviously, it is not only a simple defense exercise.
More importantly, Belarus announced that it would deploy heavy weapons to Kaliningrad, forming a situation in which Lithuania is doubled on the north and south wings, which is quite similar to the layout of launching an attack on Donbass in 2022.
Therefore, the West believes that the exercise is likely to have the function of covering up the real intentions, that is, mobilizing troops under the cover of the exercise, pre-set offensive rhythms, covering up for the next phase of military operations.
If we really fight, there are two main possibilities. One is to attack Ukraine again from another direction, and the other is to attack a new country. If it is the latter, Lithuania has a very high probability of winning the lottery for three reasons.
First, Lithuania’s extremely sensitive geographical location is the only land passage connecting Poland with the Baltic states – the Suwauki corridor, which, once blocked by the Belarusian army, the three NATO members in the Baltic Sea will fall into a strategic isolation;
Secondly, Lithuania's territory is narrow, insufficiently deep, and the border with Belarus is 679 kilometers long, the defense space is very small, the capital Vilnius is only 30 kilometers from the border, once a conflict breaks out, it is very difficult to defend;
Third, the Russian army has deployed short-range nuclear weapons, missile systems and powerful electronic warfare forces in Kaliningrad, which can quickly cut off the communication and command system in Lithuania and achieve a beheading offensive.
From a tactical perspective, the Russian and Belarusian forces can launch an offensive through three routes: rapidly maneuvering from southern Belarus into southeastern Lithuania, launching a westward strike from Kaliningrad, and suppressing NATO support channels with electronic warfare to form a fait accompli in a short period of time.
If the hybrid model is adopted, the Russian side is more likely to first enter the border area in the name of peacekeeping exercises, and then push for military control for other reasons, repeating the scenario of Crimea or Donbass.
Now Lithuania is obviously panicking and has launched comprehensive defense preparations.
It built a "national defense line" about 30 miles deep on the eastern border, including anti-tank trenches, minefields, Longya concrete obstacles, controllable blasting bridges, etc., in an attempt to delay the enemy's attack to the greatest extent possible.
A more radical measure is that the government of Lithuania promotes withdrawal from the Ottawa Mine Ban Convention and creates legal conditions for the resumption of actual use of mines.
In addition to engineering defense, Lithuania has also launched a nationwide drone mobilization plan in an all-round way, aiming to train 22,000 people to master civilian and military drone operation technology by 2028, showing that the country's society has entered a wartime mentality.
In addition, Germany’s permanent armored brigade deployment in Lithuania further demonstrates that the country has shifted from a security buffer to a front-line country.
For Lithuania, the real fear is not whether it will be beaten, but whether NATO will respond in time.