Source: Upstream News
According to CCTV news, yesterday (August 29), Thailand's Constitutional Court ruled that the suspended prime minister, Petuntan, violated the relevant provisions of the constitution in the phone call incident with Cambodian Senate President Hun Sen (known as the "telephone door"), and immediately removed him from office. This is the fifth prime minister to be removed by the Constitutional Court since 2008, and the fourth prime minister to be removed from office by the Shinawatra family (Thaksin family) led by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (also reported to be the third, not counting Thaksin's brother-in-law Somchai).
“He believes that his family is on a crucial path. In combination with his 22nd letter’s ‘disclaimer’ ruling, the outside world believes that Petonthan still has the possibility of continuing to rule. But eventually she is still in power, which means that Thailand will start the political process of electing the prime minister again, and the outcome will depend on the royal-bourgeois, military group, his creed, proud Thai party, opposition People’s Party and the small and medium-sized political parties in the ruling coalition.”
The youngest prime minister was dismissed because of the "telephone door"
The daughter of the former prime minister of Thailand, Petun Tan, the heir to the Chinava family, took office as prime minister of Thailand in August 2024, at the age of only 37, is the youngest leader in Thailand's recent modern history, and the second female prime minister of Thailand after his aunt Hira.
In mid-June this year, a recording of a phone call between Petongtan and Hun Sen about the situation on the Thai-Cambodian border flowed out. Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao said that Petongtan affectionately called Hun Sen "uncle" during the phone call, asked Hun Sen to help her solve the border problem, and criticized a commander of the Thai army as a "madman" and an "enemy of the government". The call caused great controversy. Thirty-six Thai senators filed a petition with the Constitutional Court, accusing Petongtan of "violating the moral standards of being a prime minister". The Constitutional Court announced on July 1st that it would accept the petition and suspend Petongtan from exercising the functions and powers of Prime Minister with immediate effect.
Ms. Petuntan has defended herself by saying that her call with Mr. Hun Sen was for the purpose of maintaining peace and security at the border, and that the wording was a "private communication tactic," a diplomatic tactic that did not violate the Constitution.
On August 29, nine judges of the Constitutional Court ruled that Petontan was unconstitutional by a vote of 6 - 3. The court held that although Peitontan spoke with Hun Sen to protect national interests, she made negative remarks involving the Thai military during the call and pleaded with Hun Sen, which was detrimental to national interests and was unconstitutional and terminated her post as prime minister in accordance with the Constitution. Petontan was immediately dismissed from his post and his cabinet was dissolved.
Is there really "fatalism"? "One door and four prime ministers" were all ousted
The latest ruling of the Thai Constitutional Court once again puts the “destination theory of the Chinava family” on the surface: why does the prime minister of this family always seem to have difficulty escaping judicial scrutiny?
The British "Guardian" stated that Petontan became the fourth prime minister in his family to step down due to a military coup or court ruling. Previously, his father Thaksin, uncle Somchai, and aunt Yingluck all stepped down abnormally after being accused of corruption, vote bribery, abuse of power, etc.
In 2001, he won a overwhelming victory in the general elections, believed in a series of reforms after becoming prime minister and successfully led Thailand out of the financial crisis; introduced some policies to take care of the people at the bottom, and won the support of this portion.In the 2005 general election, he believed in re-election success, becoming Thailand's first elected prime minister since the introduction of a constitutional monarchy in 1932, and the first successful re-elected prime minister.
However, this "good weather" suddenly changed in 2006. In January of that year, Thaksin pushed for the revision of the Thai Telecommunications Law in Congress, raising the upper limit of foreign legal persons' shares in Thai telecommunications enterprises from 30% to 49% in the original legal provisions. A few days later, the Thaksin family sold 48% of the shares of Shinawatra Group, the largest integrated telecom operator in Thailand, to Temasek Group of Singapore, with a transaction amount of 73.8 billion baht (about 2.22 billion US dollars). This incident was accused by the opposition of abuse of power and triggered continuous protests and demonstrations. In September of the same year, Thaksin's government was overthrown by a military coup. In 2007, the Constitutional Court of Thailand ruled that the Thai Love Thai Party was unconstitutional in fraud in the general election and ordered it to dissolve. Thaksin himself has been in exile for a long time.
In September 2008, the king issued a decree approving Somchai to take over as prime minister of Thailand. Somchai's wife, Yaowapa, is Thaksin's sister and Yingluck's sister. As Thaksin's brother-in-law, Somchai was naturally attacked by the opposition for being another "puppet" of Thaksin. In December 2008, Thailand's Constitutional Court ruled that the ruling coalition led by the People's Power Party had corruptive practices in the election, and the People's Power Party was dissolved. As the deputy chairperson of the People's Power Party, Somchai was disqualified as prime minister and was forced to resign. Somchai was prime minister for less than three months, which failed to end the country's political turmoil and push the Shinawatra family back to the top.
In May 2011, as the successor to the Thai Party, the Thai Party nominated Ingla, who had not previously been in power, as the prime minister's candidate. In July of the same year, Ingla won the general election and became the prime minister, becoming the first female prime minister of Thailand. In November 2013, the House of Representatives of Thailand passed an amnesty bill proposed by the Thai Party, allowing political suspects such as his faith to be granted amnesty, thus being strongly opposed by the opposition Democratic Party and other anti-Islamic forces. The opposition organized a massive rally to demand Ingla's resignation. In the end, the Thai Constitutional Court abused and violated the constitution as the prime minister's office by Ingla in May 2014.
The Bangkok Post stated that Peitontan's dismissal this time is another heavy blow to the Shinawatra political family and may trigger a new round of turmoil.
Behind the wave, he believes the family and the traditional conservative forces play.
There are reports that why did Petontan, who has been in power for 10 months, encounter such a big setback? The reason behind this is not simple. It can be said to be a continuation of the game between the Thaksin family and traditional conservative forces over the past 20 years.
On September 29, 2015 local time, in Bangkok, Thailand, former Thai Prime Minister Yingluck and her brother-in-law and former Prime Minister Somchai arrived at the court. On the same day, Yingluck filed a countersuit in the "rice acquisition case". Visual China
It is worth understanding the struggle between traditional forces in Thai politics and the Thaksin family. Thailand has been a constitutional monarchy since 1932, but for a long time, the royal family, the army, the courts and later the Bangkok middle class have formed the traditional conservative forces in Thai politics and dominated Thai politics.
Thaksin changed this situation. He joined politics as a wealthy businessman. In 1998, he founded the Thai Love Thai Party, which took care of the interests of farmers and the bottom of the city as its platform. It quickly became the most powerful political party in Thai politics and won consecutive elections. This affects the interests of traditional conservative forces, but conservative forces cannot defeat Thaksin's forces through elections, but only through military coups and constitutional court rulings.
Therefore, in the past 20 years, people from the Thaksin family have been seen as prime ministers and have been ousted.
In September 2006, the military launched a coup, Thaksin went into exile, and the Thai Rak Thai Party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court; However, Thaksin's forces were reorganized into the People's Power Party and won the election. Thaksin's eldest brother-in-law Somchai became prime minister in 2008, and then the People's Power Party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court for bribery. Later, Thaksin's forces set up the Thai Party, with Thaksin's younger sister Yingluck as the party leader and leading the party to win the election, and Yingluck became prime minister. In 2014, the Constitutional Court ruled that Yingluck abused her power and forced her to step down. The military then took over until new elections are held in 2023.
In the May 2023 parliamentary elections, the Kadima Party, which represents a more liberal and radical party, unexpectedly became the largest party, but was later ruled by the Constitutional Court that there was a problem with its leader. The party was dissolved and later reorganized into the People's Party. But after the 2023 election, there has been an important change in Thai politics: in order to deal with the Kadima Party, the forces represented by the Thaksin family and the traditional conservative forces have begun to compromise. Thaksin became prime minister, who was supported by Thaksin, and Thaksin himself returned to Thailand from exile.
In August 2024, Thaksin was ruled unconstitutional and immediately resigned. Thaksin's daughter Petongtan succeeded as prime minister. Thaksin himself was pardoned by the King of Thailand, so he didn't have to go to jail for his previous charges. For a time, people saw the Thaksin family return to politics and show their strength again.
At that time, some analysts believed that if the young Petuntan wanted to hold the position of prime minister, he had to deal with the relationship with the traditional forces, especially the relationship with the military. But from the recent situation, the Thaksin family and the traditional forces still did not get along well in the end, and conflicts have begun to arise in the past few months. Petuntan's remarks on the phone with Hun Sen "insulting" the military generals added fuel to the fire. This time, the traditional forces are likely to use the Constitutional Court to oust him.
Crisis survivor, can the Thaksin family make a comeback?
For the past 20 years, the Chinatown family has been at the heart of intermittent turmoil in Thailand.The Chinatown family has been described by Reuters as “pre-crisis survivors” and has faced two military coups and three court rulings that overthrew three governments and five prime ministers.
Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra (right) speaks at the "Splash 2025 Soft Power Forum" on July 9 in Bangkok, Thailand, accompanied by his youngest daughter Petuntan (left) as culture minister. Vision China
It has been commented earlier that for decades, the troubled Chinatown family has struggled with forces such as the Thai military, and now its survival is threatened by a decline in voter support. Signs indicate that if Petun Tan is ruled unconstitutional and deprived of the prime minister's office; if he is convicted again, then he believes the family has a big tail, and it will be very difficult to turn back in Thai politics again.
According to previous analyses, the remaining two trials (He Chen and Petonthan) still left the Chinava family in the eye of the storm, which could greatly weaken the family’s influence, and even mean that any ruling of its political domination towards the end of the war could affect the overall political situation.” China (Qunmin) South East Asia Research Institute Thai Institute director, researcher Zhu Haikou said, “Of course, once a judgment against his family is made, they still have the possibility of receiving King’s amnesty. This means that during this period the behavior against his creed is a ‘reminder’ or ‘battle’. For the Thai government may be temporarily extended, but the future still needs to rely on a small party alliance to divide the risk.”
Before the relevant verdict was released, Yu Haiqiu analyzed The Paper that from the witness testimony, Thaksin still had room for manoeuvre in the crime of offending the royal family. "If convicted and there is no amnesty, the political fate of the Thaksin family will encounter a huge turning point. The Thaksin family, which has influenced Thai politics for nearly 30 years, may decline, and it will be difficult to make a comeback in a short period of time." The verdict was made on August 22nd, and Thaksin was narrowly missed and exonerated.
In 2023, he dramatically ended his years of overseas exile and returned to Thailand, where his return was a part of his agreement with conservatives, imperialists, the military and other conservative forces to prevent the more radical Progressive Party from coming to power.
Titinan Ponsudirac, an expert on Thai political science and professor at Chulalongkorn University, analyzed: "The political landscape is becoming increasingly clear. The 'super deal' that brought Thaksin back home is actually designed to weaken and even eventually disintegrate the Kadima Party, rather than allowing Thailand to 'move forward' under the leadership of the Shinawatra family. Otherwise, Thaksin would not have been subject to judicial restrictions as soon as he returned to China, and Peitontan would not have been mired in today's political quagmire."
According to Pompeo’s analysis, he believes that political forces, the People’s Party, the successor of the Progressive Party, and the establishment/conservatives are still in the game, while public opinion is increasingly unsupporting Peyton Tan and the Chinava family behind him.
“The conservative political forces and his beliefs have not yet reached a political compromise, and both sides have a tough attitude, so now, even if it is not a moment of life and death, it is a crisis in which he believes the family is facing a decisive impact,” said Bao Zhiping, a South-East Asian scholar at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
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