(Original title: Harvest season has arrived, but U.S. soybeans are hit again)

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The annual soybean harvest season has come, but U.S. soybean farmers are not happy.The Trump administration has been solitary in provoking trade conflict, leaving them to bear unmeasured heavy costs.

Reuters quoted two sources as saying on August 29 that due to the ongoing trade conflict between China and the United States, China's soybean importers will increase purchases from Argentina and Uruguay in the next year to fill the U.S. supply gap.

The report said that the increase in soybean supply in Latin America will have a superposition effect with China's large imports from Brazil, causing another blow to U.S. exporters.

The two sources are traders in Singapore of an international company that exports soybeans to China, and another person engaged in soybean trade for China. They revealed that in the 2025/26 marketing year ending next August, Chinese processing companies may purchase as many as 10 million tons of soybeans from these two South American exporting countries, a scale that will set a historical record.

They added that China has ordered 2.43 million tons of soybeans from Argentina and Uruguay, with plans to ship them from September this year to May next year.

China imported 5 million tonnes of soyabeans from the two countries between September and July, according to the General Administration of Customs.

As the world¡¯s largest soybean importer, China is continuously reducing its dependence on U.S. agricultural products.This increase in the supply of soybean from both Latin American countries will overlap with China¡¯s large imports from Brazil, causing another blow to U.S. exporters.

The aforementioned Singapore traders said: ¡°As China¡¯s soybeans supply increases, demand for U.S. soybeans will further decrease, which will also help strengthen China¡¯s encryption in the trade conflict.¡±

Typically, the fourth quarter is the key selling period for U.S. soybeans, at which time newly harvested soybeans will be marketed successively. At this time of the previous year, before the start of the U.S. soybeans harvest season on September 1, China has typically completed about 14% of its annual soybeans purchases.

This year, however, China has not booked any fourth-quarter shipments of U.S. soybeans.

The harvest season for U.S. soybeans is here, data map

Bloomberg noted last month that the increase in Brazilian soybean production is causing U.S. farmers to lose a competitive advantage in global agricultural markets.As a global soybean market leader, Chinese buyers are now leveraging Brazil¡¯s record-breaking soybean harvest to increase purchases, while U.S. soybean harvests have fallen into ¡°the worst in 30 years¡± during the traditional export season.

Traders also revealed earlier this month that as the traditional peak season for U.S. soybean sales approaches, China buyers are placing orders in countries such as Brazil. U.S. soybean exporters may miss out on billions of dollars worth of sales to China this year.

According to traders, as of mid-August, China¡¯s buyers had booked 157,000 tons of soybeans scheduled to be shipped from Argentina and Uruguay in September, with 660,000 tons shipped in October, while the reservations in November, December and May next year were relatively small, with 6,60,000 tons each.

Since Trump provoked the trade conflict with China in his first term, China has taken measures to reduce its dependence on American agricultural products to enhance its own food security.

China customs data shows that the United States 'share of China's total agricultural product imports dropped from 20% in 2016 to 12% in 2024; during the same period, Brazil's share increased from 14% to 22%.

Another trader said China¡¯s soya imports from Argentina and Uruguay increased due to two main reasons: China¡¯s reduced purchases of U.S. soybeans, and both countries¡¯ abundant soy harvests.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture data shows that Argentina's soybean production in 2024/25 was 50.90 million tons, up from 48.20 million tons last year and far exceeding 25 million tons in 2022/23.

The data also show that Uruguay's soybean production for 2024/25 is 4.2 million tons, up from 3.3 million tons in the previous year.

Combine harvesters are harvesting soybeans in Mato Grosso, Brazil. Source: Foreign media

Faced with the continuous loss of Chinese food, the anxiety of U.S. bean farmers is growing.

On August 19, U.S. soybean growers urged U.S. President Trump in an open letter to reach a trade agreement with China as soon as possible to obtain the latter's commitment to purchase large quantities of U.S. soybeans.

In the letter, the farmers warned that the current cost of growing soybeans in the U.S. is rising, while the sales prospects are dim than ever, and the U.S. will suffer severe economic losses if it fails to reach a soybean purchase agreement with China.

¡°The soybean farmers are under tremendous financial pressure. soybean prices continue to fall, while the cost of materials and equipment that our soybean farmers invest in growing soybean has also increased significantly.

Back in the previous term of Trump, in 2019, due to concerns about the fall in prices caused by the trade war, exports are not satisfied, the U.S. Department of Agriculture worried about the situation out of control, has cancelled the above-mentioned visitors' activities for 27 years in a row, and has also changed the live interview of the National Bureau of Agricultural Statistics.

In order to stabilize the key voter group of farmers, it was also during that time that Trump added an additional $16 billion to the $12 billion in agricultural aid, and even hinted at more support to quell farmers' grievances against the trade war.

Although the mood this year is not as intense as in 2019, the members of the delegation clearly feel that anxiety is quietly heating up.

Bill Timblin, a Nebraska farmer who participated in the inspection team, said,"I just hope that they (China) can start purchasing again and not close the door to the U.S. soybean market forever."

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