On the stage of international politics, relations between nations have never remained unchanged. Vietnam and the Philippines, the two countries that have historically had close ties with China, have shown a firm friendly attitude at certain times and even publicly declared to defend China. However, gradually the relationship between the two countries and China has changed dramatically, and now there is even a confrontation on some issues.
Millennium interweaving and colonial traces
The origins of Vietnam and China date back more than two thousand years ago. Early in 221 B.C., after the Qin emperor unified China, he incorporated the Lingnan region into the map, and the North Vietnam Belt became part of the Ivory County. In 111 B.C., the Han Wu emperor destroyed South Vietnam, and Vietnam formally entered the "Northern Period" of Chinese rule.
Since then, Vietnam has undergone thousands of years of Chinese rule, with the Chinese language, Confucian ideas and administrative systems deeply integrated into local society, but this cultural closeness has not wiped out Vietnam’s national consciousness. In the 40s, the Shrine Sisters rebelled against the Han dynasty, which eventually failed, but became a symbol of Vietnam’s spirit of resistance.
In 544, Lu Bi established the former Lu Dynasty and achieved autonomy for a short time. Until the collapse of the central authority at the end of the Tang Dynasty, Wu Quan defeated the Southern Han fleet in the Battle of Baitengjiang in 938. After that, in 968, Vietnam's Ding Bu led to establish the "Daqu Yue Kingdom", and Vietnam became an independent feudal country.
This millennium of reconciliation has allowed Vietnam to retain traces of Chinese culture, such as the use of Chinese words and festive customs, and to foster a strong sense of independence.This contradictory mindset has repeatedly emerged in later China-Vietnam relations: both intimacy due to similar origins and caution due to historical memory.
Unlike Vietnam, the Philippines' historical ties to China are more indirect. Before the Spanish colonization, the Philippines consisted of scattered barangays (tribal units), which were mainly traded with China by sea. Chinese merchant ships were laden with silk and porcelain in exchange for local gold and pearls, and Chinese communities gradually formed in places like Manila.
In 1521, Magellan arrived at the hospital, opening the 333 years of colonial rule of Spain. Manila became a trade hub, and Chinese goods were transported to Mexico by sailing boats, but Spain was cautious about the Chinese, and in 1603 even launched violent operations against the Chinese in Manila, resulting in thousands of deaths.
In 1898, after the American War, the Philippines was taken over by the United States. The United States promoted modern education and infrastructure construction, English replaced Spanish, and the pro-American elite gradually formed. During the Cold War, the Philippines became a bridge for the United States against communism, further isolating direct ties with China. This western-oriented history allowed the Philippines to face China more from geopolitical and economic interests rather than historical emotions.
From allies to confrontations.
After the founding of the People's Republic of China, both Vietnam and the Philippines entered a "honeymoon period" with China, but this friendship did not last long. Geopolitics, national interests and the game between big powers have gradually moved the two countries from allies to confrontation.
At the beginning of the establishment of New China, Vietnam was a firm ally of China. In 1949, when China was destroyed, Vietnamese leader Ho Chi Minh was strongly supported by China in the anti-French war. Prior to the battle of Lhasa in 1954, China sent Chen Qing to lead a consultancy force deeper into Vietnam to assist in the operation, and the fleet continued to travel to the border.
After the victory of the battle, France withdrew, and Vietnam publicly declared: "I will attack whoever dares to touch China." Since then, during the War to Resist U.S. Aggression, China once again made every effort to help, providing weapons, supplies and 320,000 engineering troops to ensure the smooth flow of the "Ho Chi Minh Trail" transportation line.
However, after the death of Ho Chi Minh in 1969, Liu Xiaobo came to power, and China-Vietnam relations suddenly turned down. In the 1970s, the Soviet-Chinese relations broke, Vietnam turned to the Soviet Union, joined the Soviet Union in 1978 and signed a treaty of friendship with the Soviet Union. In the same year, Vietnam invaded Cambodia and overthrew the pro-Chinese regime.
On February 17, 1979, a war broke out on the Sino-Vietnamese border. China launched a self-defense counterattack, invaded northern Vietnam within 28 days, and then withdrew its troops. This short war greatly damaged Vietnam's vitality, and the trust between the two countries completely collapsed. Since then, the border conflict lasted until the late 1980s, and the South China Sea dispute became a new friction point.
The relationship between the Philippines and China has also changed. In 1975, taking advantage of the easing of Sino-US relations, the Philippines and China formally established diplomatic relations. China goods began to appear on the streets of Manila, and economic cooperation gradually warmed up. However, the 1986 economic crisis forced the Philippines to turn to Taiwan for assistance, and relations with China cooled. In 2009, the United States implemented the "return to the Asia-Pacific" strategy, and the Philippines once again moved closer to Washington.
In 2013, the Philippines unilaterally filed the South China Sea arbitration case, the so-called "decision", its so-called ruling is illegal, invalid, China does not accept, and does not recognize the ruling. After Duterte came to power, eased the dispute, signed a number of cooperation agreements during a visit to China, the China-Philippines relationship briefly recovered. However, in 2022, after Little Marcos took office, the Philippines opened more military bases to the United States, re-imposed the South China Sea issue, and the position again strong.
The shift in the relationship between the two countries is driven by both its own interests and external forces. The United States has played a key role in this, using military and diplomatic means to provoke regional conflicts to contain China's rise.
The South China Sea dispute and the game between major powers
Today, the focus of China-Vietnam and China-Philippines relations is on the South China Sea issue. This area is not only an important sea passage, but also contains abundant oil and gas resources, making it a stage for many parties to wrestle with each other.
The sovereignty dispute between Vietnam and China in the South China Sea mainly centers on the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands. In recent years, Vietnam has strengthened its oil and gas exploration activities in disputed waters and frequently confronted China ships. However, economically, Vietnam is highly dependent on China. China is Vietnam's largest trading partner. Vietnam's ports are full of China goods and factories rely on China equipment and technology.
In diplomatic terms, Vietnam has adopted a cautious balancing strategy to avoid escalation of conflict through bilateral talks and ASEAN framework management differences.On the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the establishment of trade in 2025, Chinese leaders visited Vietnam, and the two sides signed a number of cooperation agreements such as railways, energy, showing deepening economic cooperation.
The Philippines' position on the South China Sea is more complex. On the one hand, the activities of Chinese ships in the Philippines' exclusive economic zone have sparked protests by fishermen and diplomatic exchanges. On the other hand, the two sides celebrate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations in 2025, and the Philippine foreign minister has expressed his willingness to reach a peace agreement with China. Economically, Manila has benefited greatly from China's investment in Philippine ports and infrastructure projects through the "Belt and Road Initiative" initiative.
However, the Marcos administration has strengthened military cooperation with the United States and opened more bases to the US military, showing strategic vigilance against China. US aircraft carriers frequently patrol the South China Sea in an attempt to contain China, and the Philippines has become an important pawn for them.
The U.S. intervention in the South China Sea issue is an important variable of tensions between China and Vietnam and the Philippines. During the 2016 South China Sea confrontation, the three major Chinese fleets gathered together and forced the U.S. military to withdraw, showing China’s determination to defend its sovereignty. Since then, U.S. military activities in the region have converged, but are still under pressure through allies. From the South Korean “Sad” deployment to the Japanese Fishing Island dispute, the U.S. image is everywhere, aimed at curbing China’s rise.
China's response: Putting equal emphasis on hard power and soft diplomacy
Faced with the complex situation in its surrounding relations, China has adopted a multi-pronged strategy, both to demonstrate military strength and to promote economic cooperation.
The victory in the South China Sea confrontation in 2016 was a reflection of China’s military strength. Three major fleet movements, ships, radar coverage of the sea, and deterrence. Since then, the Chinese navy’s cruises in the South China Sea have increased frequently, showing a firm attitude to safeguard sovereignty.
Through the "Belt and Road Initiative", China has deepened economic ties with Vietnam and the Philippines, providing high-speed rail technology to Vietnam and investing in port construction to the Philippines. Bilateral trade has continued to grow. This economic interdependence provides the basis for easing tensions.
China actively participates in platforms such as ASEAN and the United Nations, and seeks to take the initiative in the formulation of international rules. Through multilateral diplomacy, China tries to shape a regional order that is beneficial to itself and win the trust of its neighbors.
In the future, China-Vietnam and China-Philippines relations will continue to evolve driven by the game of great powers and economic interests. Sino-Vietnamese relations are expected to maintain a pattern of coexistence of economic cooperation and maritime differences. Vietnam needs to find a balance between economic development and sovereignty claims, manage conflicts through dialogue, and avoid full-scale confrontation.
The Philippines will continue to swing between China and the United States. Dependent on China economically and the United States for security, the policies of the Marcos administration will be adjusted according to domestic public opinion and the international situation. Dialogue and tension will coexist as the norm.
China needs to exchange wisdom and military strength to stabilize the surrounding environment.In the formulation of international rules, take the initiative, improve national defense capabilities, in order to win the initiative in the game.
China's relationship with Vietnam and the Philippines is a historical drama full of turmoil. From the millennium to modern confrontation, from allies to opponents, to the search for a new balance, each step reflects the complexity of international politics. The wheel of history rolls forward, the future chapter is still to be written. In the context of the game of great powers, peace and development are still the common demands of regional countries.