As soon as the United Nations' "World Population Prospects 2024" report came out, public opinion exploded. It was not so much a data update as it revealed a global plot turning point in advance.
The report shows that there are currently 8.2 billion people living on the earth. It is expected that this number will reach 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, and then this number will slowly decline to 10.2 billion by the end of this century. It will be 200 million less than previously predicted. The global fertility rate will decline much faster than expected.So is population contraction the long-awaited gospel, or the alarm clock for mankind?
10.3 billion people
Today, when we talk about global population, we can no longer generalize. The world's population map is undergoing a dramatic folding, which is closely related to the development stage of each economy, and also indicates the undercurrent of the future global power pattern.
There are 63 countries and regions whose population has surpassed its peak and begins to fall.Germany, Japan, and Russia, the developed countries we know, are among them, and according to the forecast, in the next 30 years, the total population of these countries will face a severe reality of a 14% decline.
Approximately 48 other countries are standing near the peak of the population curve and are expected to peak in a row between 2025 and 2054.A group of developing countries, such as Brazil, Turkey and Vietnam, are at a key point in the global population trend shift and will soon join the line of contraction.
As for parts of Africa and Asia, they are still contributing to the global population.But this is a complex growth, often accompanied by backward medical conditions and high maternal mortality.
In this global divide,China is undoubtedly the most volatile sample, from the population explosion in the past to almost becoming the "leader" of negative growth, this transformation is amazingly fast. Starting from 2022, China's population will officially enter a stage of negative growth.This is about five years ahead of the forecast of 2027 to 2032 by many institutions.
The data for 2023 further deepened this trend, with the total population decreasing by 20.8 million at the end of the year, the number of births of only 9.2 million throughout the year, and the number of deaths exceeded the number of newborns.Compared with 2022, the scope of negative growth is significantly expanding.
In the forecast model of the United Nations, China's future population curve is particularly steep.The population will decrease by 2.4 billion by 2054 and the total population is expected to drop to 6.3 billion by 2100, which is almost back to the levels of the late 1950s.
It is worth noting that the United Nations 'forecast of China's population has been revised downwards, from 1.065 billion in the 2019 version to 767 million in the 2022 version, and then to 633 million in the 2024 version. Even so, demographer Yi Fuxian and other experts still believe thatThis number may be too optimistic.
He pointed out that the United Nations model failed to fully take into account the extremely low fertility rate that prevails in the Chinese community. He estimated that China's actual fertility rate in 2023 may be only about 1.0.Other research institutions also predict that China’s population could be just 6.5 billion by 2100.
The beautiful misunderstanding that less is more
“Is it good or bad?” the question is raising unprecedented controversy.On the surface, this is a game between short-term environmental benefits and long-term social and economic vitality. Ordinary people's simple expectation that "fewer people will lead to a richer life" is also related to the cold reality of labor shortage and pressure on the pension system., constitute a sharp contradiction.
From an environmental point of view, population contraction undoubtedly brings hope for a planet with increasingly tense resources and increasing climate change.Reduced population means less consumption, lower carbon emissions, and more room for biodiversitySome netizens are optimistic that with an increase in per capita resources, the quality of life will naturally improve, which sounds reasonable.
But the other side of the alarm clock is more earsome, and the most direct and deadly impact comes from the vacuum of labor.When there is not enough fresh blood in a society, who will maintain the operation of factories? who will provide daily services? who will drive technological innovation?This will not only weaken the fundamental driving force of the country’s development, but may even lead to a slowdown in economic growth and even a recession.
Then comes the pain of the social structure.With the United Nations predicting that by 2080 there will be more people over 65 than under 18 for the first time, an "inverted pyramid" is formingA handful of young people need to nurture a large group of older people, which will put unimaginable pressure on the social pension system.
The idea that it is less easy for people to find jobs is more like a beautiful misunderstanding. The basic logic of economics tells us that the contraction of the economy will inevitably lead to the simultaneous reduction of jobs.As the demand of the entire market is falling, the willingness to expand will decrease, the creation of new jobs will be reduced, and job competition may not be made easier.
Behind the unborn is the inability to be born
Behind the global low fertility rate is not simply that young people have become selfish, but that countless rational and even helpless responses under pressure. If you look closely at the reasons for not being born, you will find that it is a complex collection of dilemmas.The high cost of work, housing and childcare weighs on young people like three mountains, making them afraid to have children.
The long overtime "internal" culture, relentlessly crushing personal lives, leaving them no time to live, and the iteration of ideas also plays a key role.The older generation may still have the idea of "having more children is a blessing" or viewing children as an investment to spread risks, but contemporary young people generally believe that childbearing is a huge responsibility.
Before they can provide a good growth environment for their children, they would rather choose not to have children. This is a profound shift from the pursuit of quantity to the pursuit of quality. However, the deeper reason lies in the reduction of social mobility.When young people generally feel clustered and feel that individual struggles are difficult to change their destiny, their confidence in the future is shaken, and this uncertainty naturally passes to birth decisions.
Looking around the world, especially in some low-income countries,The situation of women is even more difficult, with high maternal mortality rates, lack of reproductive autonomy, and traditional attitudes that prioritize boys over girls all becoming heavy shackles that hold back the recovery of fertility ratesIn 2021, there have been more than 100 countries in the world fertility rate below 2.1 generations level, South Korea in 2023 fertility rate is even lower to 0.72, a new global low.
At the time when a child should be born, both husband and wife are staying up late and working overtime. How can this child be born? What would you do if it were you? Regardless of life? Or think twice before you act?
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