Preliminary

Starting in late May, China blocked the Philippine fleet of the Mount Madrid, which illegally sat on the beaches of the Rhineland Reef. Within more than 100 days, the Philippine fleet of the Mount Madrid did not receive a drop of fresh water and a grain supply. In the end, the Mount Madrid fleet moved a small boat, attempting to steal over the blockade line and obtain supplies. As a result, the Chinese fleet of the Marine Guard was tightly defended and the Philippine conspiracy failed. In the end, the Philippine fleet could only be pushed back to Mount Madrid! Therefore, some analysts said that the game of Rhineland may be about to come to a big conclusion.

Illusions of American legs.

The main reason why the Philippines dares to be so arrogant in Renai Reef is that the United States can support it. At the beginning of this year, the Philippine military said that as long as the soldiers on the Sierra Madre died, it would be tantamount to triggering the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. This sounds scary, but anyone who knows a little about it knows that it is just wishful thinking in the Philippines. At the end of last year, U.S. Defense Secretary Austin said that the treaty applies to conflicts in the South China Sea, but the Chinese Ministry of National Defense has long made it clear that this old treaty during the Cold War has nothing to do with the South China Sea, and the United States is not qualified to intervene in the Sino-Philippine dispute.

But the Philippines seemed to have caught the rescue grass, these two years went close to the United States. This April just ended the U.S. military exercise "Thorror Confrontation 2025", the U.S. military sent 12 F-16 fighters, the Philippines launched the FA-50PH fighter, simulated interception, sinking the military ships these practical combat exercises. It is more noteworthy that Japan, Australia also came in as an observer, the Philippines felt it was the U.S. with its allies to fight against themselves. In fact, what the U.S. heart was clear, in the new military base in the Philippines to deploy the "Tibong" medium-range missile system, with the ballistic artillery of Palau Island formed the so-called "two-line deterrent", in the

In order to embolden, the Philippines has been begging for warships in recent years, getting two 2,600-ton "Teresa Magbanua "-class patrol ships from Japan, France gave a 2,000-ton" Gabriella Silang ", and the United States also sent some decommissioned second-hand goods. The Philippine Coast Guard spokesperson also boasted that these new ships can withstand the water cannons of the Chinese Coast Guard. But the reality is that the Chinese Coast Guard alone has 225 law enforcement vessels of more than 500 tons, and the world's largest 10,000-ton coast guard ship. The Philippines' wealth is simply not enough. As the experts said, the Philippine equipment came from several countries and could not be integrated to form a combat force. To rely on this to challenge China was purely a mistake.

Moving the contradictory political performance

The Philippine people¡¯s self-evaluation rate of poverty has risen to more than 60%, while the support rate of the government has fallen to 25%. The economy has failed, a lot of people¡¯s livelihoods problems, and the people are naturally dissatisfied. Even more troubling, although political opponent Duterte has been sent to the Hague for trial, the support rate has increased, which has left Marcos in trouble.

At this time, talking about the South China Sea became the usual trick for Philippine politicians. By inciting nationalist emotions, the attention of the people was shifted from the bad life, to the so-called "defense of national sovereignty" up. The government of Marcos was clear that as long as in the Reef of Mercy with China, those voices of dissatisfaction with the government will be temporarily suppressed. So even if the military ships are blocked, the soldiers are fast to break the bread, it must be hard-hearted, showing the "strong hard-hearted power" to the country.

In fact, this kind of trick in the Philippines is not new. On May 9, 1999, the day after the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia, the Philippine Navy deliberately let the "Sierra Madre" sit on the beach of Renai Reef. At that time, it also wanted to take advantage of the international tension to fish in troubled waters. Now, the old tricks are repeated. On the one hand, we want to copy the "successful experience" of that year, and on the other hand, there is really no other way to save the precarious ruling position. But the eyes of ordinary people are sharp, and no matter how fiercely they shout, they can't make an extra bowl of rice on the dinner table. This routine of transferring contradictions will be seen through sooner or later.

Persistence in strategic locations

The location of the reef is really eye-catching.

It is about 25.9 kilometers southeast of Meiji Reef. It is an important atoll in the Nansha Islands. The top of the atoll covers an area of 51.62 square kilometers, and most of it can be exposed to the water at low tide. According to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, as long as you occupy this reef, you can claim a 12-nautical-mile territorial sea and a 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone, which means huge marine resources and strategic space. More importantly, rich oil and gas resources have been discovered in Lile Beach near Ren 'ai Reef, which has made the resource-poor Philippines greedy.

The Philippines has been occupying the Nansha islands and reefs since the 1970s. In 1999, it deliberately let the "Sierra Madre" sit on the beach of Ren'ai Reef to create a fait accompli of actual control. Over the years, they have been sending soldiers to guard in shifts, just because they are afraid that China will take back the reef. Now that China has imposed a blockade, it is equivalent to choking the Philippines. Once the defenders can't hold on to the retreat, the Philippines will completely lose its foothold on Ren'ai Reef, which is absolutely unacceptable to them.

The Philippines has been secretly strengthening the "Sierra Madre" over the years, hoping that the broken ship can stay on the reef for a few more years. In December 2023, it also tried to deliver construction materials, but was stopped by the Chinese coast guard. They know in their hearts that as long as the ship is still on the reef, they can continue to entangle with China under the banner of "sovereignty". But the reality is that after more than 20 years of wind and sun, the ship has long been a pile of scrap iron. Coupled with China's blockade for more than 100 days, the survival of the soldiers on board is in question, and the Philippines' stubbornness is about to come to nothing.