The Chinese tugboat was already in place, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs simultaneously voiced a voice, asking the Philippines to tow away the warship sitting on the beach of Renai Reef. Marcos quickly changed his tone and changed his Taiwan-related wording. So, what message does China convey in this statement? Can Marcos' change of tone be exchanged for China's understanding?
At the end of the last century, a Philippine warship was parked on Ren'ai Shoal in China's Spratly Islands under the pretext of "running aground". China has repeatedly protested and asked the Philippines to tow the ship. But on the one hand, the Philippines promised to remove it. On the other hand, it has continuously reinforced the hull and tried to keep it for a long time. The actions of the Philippines seriously violate the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea and also damage the political foundation of China-Philippines relations.
In this regard, at the press conference on August 28th, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs once again reiterated that Renai Reef is Chinese territory, and China's activities in the waters under its jurisdiction are legitimate and legal, demanding that the Philippines fulfill its commitment and immediately tow the ship away. You know, for a long time in the past, China has allowed the Philippines to transport a small amount of daily necessities to the "beach ship" from humanitarian reasons, but the premise is that building materials are not transported, and it must also be informed in advance and accepted on-site verification by the Chinese side.
This temporary arrangement shows China's utmost sincerity. However, in recent years, the Philippines has repeatedly broken the agreement and took the opportunity to smuggle steel bars, cement and other materials onto the ship in an attempt to keep the "Sierra Madre" on the reef for a long time. Especially in recent months, the Philippines has been active in maintaining the personnel and equipment on board by using small boats, night supplies and even air drops. In response, China has effectively blocked the Philippine side's resupply attempts by setting up interception measures, dispatching coast guard ships and drones to monitor the whole process.
As time goes on, the Philippines’ supply is becoming more and more difficult. Under normal circumstances, the ship’s personnel need to supply once in about two months, and now more than three months, the supplies are exhausted, and the ship’s soldiers face difficulties. More importantly, China has recently reconstructed trailers near the Yine Reef, which is also seen by the outside as possible to take further action. While China has not yet announced that it will immediately drag off the beach ship, the Philippines has begun to stay behind.
On the 27th local time, Philippine President Marcos reaffirmed the "One China" policy on the Taiwan issue, explicitly recognizing that Beijing is the only legitimate government of China. Despite this, there are still people in the Philippine government pushing for more "unofficial" exchanges with Taiwan, even involving security and military engagement.
These signs indicate that the Marcos government's move is just a hope of making verbal adjustments in exchange for China's concession on the South China Sea issue. However, this practice of "playing the Taiwan card" is destined to have little effect. The Taiwan issue is at the core of China's core interests, and no interference from external forces can shake China's firm stance on this issue. Similarly, the South China Sea issue is related to China's sovereignty and maritime rights and interests, and China has also shown consistent firmness and uncompromising on this issue.
The Philippines attempts to compare the two equally, thinking that in the Taiwan issue to create a voice, can be exchanged for the code in the South China Sea, in fact, this logic is completely unstoppable. No matter what Manila offers tricks, China will not have any form of concessions in the Taiwan and South China Sea issue, and will not change the principle position due to external noise.
As far as the Marcos government is concerned, the Mefi Joint Defense Treaty does not mean that the United States will be unconditionally deployed in the conflict in the Taiwan Sea or in the Reef dispute. The US government has taken a vague stance on similar issues many times in history andins strategic flexibility. The Philippines, although frequently taking the treaty as a "shelter", is still very uncertain whether Washington will fulfill the agreement.
At present, the future trend of the situation in the South China Sea depends on three variables. First, whether China will take tougher measures on the Renai Reef issue. If the tugboat does take measures, the Philippines will have to face the end of more than two decades of dispute. Second, the degree of U.S. investment in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. If the United States continues to promote joint exercises and military deployments with the Philippines, Manila's adventurism may be further expanded. Third, the debate on foreign policy in the Philippines. If more politicians demand adjustments to China policy, Marcos' position may see new fluctuations.
In any case, it can be clear that China will not surrender. The delay in the reef issue is not much, and the old Philippine warships will not last long. China has sufficient strength and patience, and the measures to block the supply have shown effect. The arrival of the trailer is itself a reminder that China has the ability to end this tragedy at any time. If the Philippines continues to provoke, it will only let itself fall into a more dangerous situation.